Earnings prediction using machine learning methods and analyst comparison

In the course of this dissertation we propose an experimental study on how technical, macroeconomic, and financial variables, alongside analysts’ forecasts, can be used to optimize the prediction for the subsequent quarter’s earnings results using machine learning, comparing the performance of the models to analysts’ forecasts. The dissertation includes three steps. In step one, an event study is conducted to test abnormal returns in firms’ stock prices in the day following earnings announcement, grouped by earnings per share (EPS) growth in classes of size 3, 6 and 9, computed for each quarter. In step two, several machine learning models are built to maximize the accuracy of EPS predictions. In the last step, investment strategies are constructed to take advantage of investors’ expectations, which are closely correlated with analysts’ predictions. In the backdrop of an exhaustive analysis on quarterly earnings predictions using machine learning methods, conclusions are drawn related to the superiority of the CatBoost classifier. All machine learning models tested underperform analyst predictions, which could be explained by the time and privileged information at analysts’ disposal, as well as their selection of firms to cover. Regardless, machine learning models can be used as a confirmation for analyst predictions, and statistically significant investment strategies are pursued with those fundamentals. Importantly, high confidence predictions by machine learning models are significantly more accurate than the average accuracy of forecasts.No decorrer desta dissertação, realiza-se um estudo experimental sobre a forma como análises técnicas, macroeconómicas, fundamentais e as previsões dos analistas podem ser utilizadas em conjunto para otimizar a previsão dos resultados de lucros do próximo trimestre de empresas A dissertação inclui três etapas. Na primeira etapa, é efetuado um estudo de evento para testar os retornos anormais nas ações no dia seguinte aos anúncios de lucros, sendo estes agrupados pelo crescimento do lucro por ação nas classes de 3, 6 e 9, calculado para cada trimestre. Na etapa dois, vários modelos de machine learning (ML) são concebidos para maximizar a precisão das previsões de crescimento de lucros de empresas. Na última etapa, estratégias de investimento são construídas para tirar proveito das expectativas do investidor, que estão relacionadas com as previsões dos analistas. Uma vez que um dos projetos de pesquisa mais exaustivos sobre previsões de lucros para o próximo trimestre, conclusões podem ser retiradas relacionadas com a superioridade do modelo CatBoost nas previsões de lucros. Todos os modelos de testados apresentam desempenho inferior às previsões dos analistas, o que pode ser explicado pelo tempo e pelas informações privilegiadas a que os analistas têm acesso, bem como pela escolha da empresa sob a qual as suas previsões incidem. Os modelos de podem ser utilizados como uma confirmação para as previsões dos analistas criando estratégias de investimento estatisticamente significativas. Além disso, as previsões com alta confiança por modelos de são mais precisas do que a precisão média das previsões dos analistas

Stream restoration and meanders position : case study of Cerny potok, ore mountains, Czech Republic

Tese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia do Ambiente (Gestão). Universidade do Porto. Faculdade de Engenharia. 201

Stream restoration and meanders position : case study of Cerny potok, ore mountains, Czech Republic

Tese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia do Ambiente (Gestão). Universidade do Porto. Faculdade de Engenharia. 201

Psychomotor intervention on eldelry with osteoarticular problems

This work will be based on a literature review on the particular aspects of rehabilitation in the elderly suffering from osteoarticular problems of the lower limbs, specifically arthrosis. The aging process is associated with body knowledge and motor decreases, mainly cognitive and motor. These decreases will contribute long-term to the reduction of autonomy and individual functionality. Studies have revealed that age and obesity are the main factors of the appearance of osteoarthrosis in the joints of the lower limbs, specifically the knee joint. Through this work, we intend to reinforce the importance of psychomotor intervention in preventing the development of disease, as well as the multidisciplinary dynamics between various areas in health

Lateralization of the visual word form area in patients with alexia after stroke

Background Knowledge of the process by which visual information is integrated into the brain reading system promotes a better understanding of writing and reading models. Objective This study aimed to use functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to explore whether the Blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) contrast imaging patterns, of putative cortical region of the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA), are distinct in aphasia patients with moder- ate and severe alexia. Methods Twelve chronic stroke patients (5 patients with severe alexia and 7 pa- tients with moderate alexia) were included. A word categorization task was used to examine responses in the VWFA and its right homolog re- gion. Patients performed a semantic decision task in which words were contrasted with non-verbal fonts to assess the lateralization of reading ability in the ventral occipitotemporal region. Results A fixed effects (FFX) general linear model (GLM) multi-study from the contrast of patients with moderate alexia and those with severe alexia (FDR, p = 0.05, corrected for multiples comparisons using a Threshold Estimator plugin (1000 Monte Carlo simulations), was per- formed. Activation of the left VWFA was robust in patients with mod- erate alexia. Aphasia patients with severe reading deficits also activated the right homolog VWFA. Conclusions This bilateral activation pattern only in patients with severe alexia could be interpreted as a result of reduced recruitment of the left VWFA for reading tasks due to the severe reading deficit. This study provides some new insights about reading pathways and possible neuroplasti- city mechanisms in aphasia patients with alexia. Additional reports could explore the predictive value of right VWFA activation for reading recovery and aid language therapy in patients with aphasia.N/

Intervenção psicomotora numa unidade de psiquiatria da Infância e da adolescência

A intervenção psicomotora no contexto de saúde mental infantojuvenil visa compreender, explorar e resolver os conflitos e angústias internas, permitindo a (re)construção de novos significados para as vivências corporais associadas a esses estados ou conflitos, e assim contribuir para uma relação mais prazerosa entre Eu Corporal e o Eu Psíquico. O presente relatório de estágio corresponde à descrição das atividades desenvolvidas ao longo do estágio curricular do Mestrado em Psicomotricidade da Universidade de Évora, numa Unidade de Pedopsiquiatria da Infância e da Adolescência. Os objetivos centravam-se na contextualização da prática psicomotora numa Unidade de Pedopsiquiatria; investigar e descrever os casos encaminhados para a Psicomotricidade; descrever as atividades efetuadas durante o período de estágio; fazer a análise e a contextualização da intervenção psicomotora, e investigar os resultados obtidos da intervenção psicomotora em dois Estudos de Caso, acompanhados individualmente, fazendo a contextualização da perturbação da personalidade borderline e perturbação do desenvolvimento intelectual. Partindo da fundamentação da intervenção psicomotora, possibilitou a identificação das evoluções positivas, com recurso a diversos instrumentos de avaliação, bem como a observação informal. Assim, foi feita uma reflexão acerca da pertinência da Psicomotricidade, em contexto hospital, nomeadamente em Unidades de Pedopsiquiatria; Abstract: “Psychomotor intervention in a Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Unit” Psychomotor intervention in the context of child and adolescent mental health aims to understand, explore and resolve internal conflicts and anxieties, allowing the (re)construction of new meanings for the bodily experiences associated with these states or conflicts, and thus contributing to a more pleasurable relationship between Body Self and Psychic Self. This internship report corresponds to the description of the activities carried out during the curricular internship of the Master in Psychomotricity at the University of Évora, in a Child and Adolescent Child and Child Psychiatry Unit. The objectives were centered on the contextualization of psychomotor practice in a Child Psychiatry Unit; investigate and describe the cases referred to Psychomotricity; describe the activities carried out during the internship period; carry out the analysis and contextualization of the psychomotor intervention, and investigate the results obtained from the psychomotor intervention in two Case Studies, followed individually, making the contextualization of borderline personality disorder and disturbance of intellectual development. Based on the foundations of the psychomotor intervention, it enabled the identification of positive developments, using various assessment instruments, as well as informal observation. Thus, a reflection was made on the pertinence of Psychomotricity, in a hospital context, namely in Child Psychiatry Units

“To talk or not to talk”- an rTMS study about naming during stimulation

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