Evaluating genetic drift in time-series evolutionary analysis

The Wright-Fisher model is the most popular population model for describing the behaviour of evolutionary systems with a finite population size. Approximations have commonly been used but the model itself has rarely been tested against time-resolved genomic data. Here, we evaluate the extent to which it can be inferred as the correct model under a likelihood framework. Given genome-wide data from an evolutionary experiment, we validate the Wright-Fisher drift model as the better option for describing evolutionary trajectories in a finite population. This was found by evaluating its performance against a Gaussian model of allele frequency propagation. However, we note a range of circumstances under which standard Wright-Fisher drift cannot be correctly identified. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model

Addicted? Reduced host resistance in populations with defensive symbionts.

Heritable symbionts that protect their hosts from pathogens have been described in a wide range of insect species. By reducing the incidence or severity of infection, these symbionts have the potential to reduce the strength of selection on genes in the insect genome that increase resistance. Therefore, the presence of such symbionts may slow down the evolution of resistance. Here we investigated this idea by exposing Drosophila melanogaster populations to infection with the pathogenic Drosophila C virus (DCV) in the presence or absence of Wolbachia, a heritable symbiont of arthropods that confers protection against viruses. After nine generations of selection, we found that resistance to DCV had increased in all populations. However, in the presence of Wolbachia the resistant allele of pastrel-a gene that has a major effect on resistance to DCV-was at a lower frequency than in the symbiont-free populations. This finding suggests that defensive symbionts have the potential to hamper the evolution of insect resistance genes, potentially leading to a state of evolutionary addiction where the genetically susceptible insect host mostly relies on its symbiont to fight pathogens.Wellcome Trust (Grant ID: WT094664MA)This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from The Royal Society via https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.077

Assessing the effect of dynamics on the closed-loop protein-folding hypothesis

The closed-loop (loop-n-lock) hypothesis of protein folding suggests that loops of about 25 residues, closed through interactions between the loop ends (locks), play an important role in protein structure. Coarse-grain elastic network simulations, and examination of loop lengths in a diverse set of proteins, each supports a bias towards loops of close to 25 residues in length between residues of high stability. Previous studies have established a correlation between total contact distance (TCD), a metric of sequence distances between contacting residues (cf. contact order), and the log-folding rate of a protein. In a set of 43 proteins, we identify an improved correlation ( r 2 = 0.76), when the metric is restricted to residues contacting the locks, compared to the equivalent result when all residues are considered ( r 2 = 0.65). This provides qualified support for the hypothesis, albeit with an increased emphasis upon the importance of a much larger set of residues surrounding the locks. Evidence of a similar-sized protein core/extended nucleus (with significant overlap) was obtained from TCD calculations in which residues were successively eliminated according to their hydrophobicity and connectivity, and from molecular dynamics simulations. Our results suggest that while folding is determined by a subset of residues that can be predicted by application of the closed-loop hypothesis, the original hypothesis is too simplistic; efficient protein folding is dependent on a considerably larger subset of residues than those involved in lock formation. </jats:p

Distinguishing Driver and Passenger Mutations in an Evolutionary History Categorized by Interference

In many biological scenarios, from the development of drug resistance in pathogens to the progression of healthy cells toward cancer, quantifying the selection acting on observed mutations is a central question. One difficulty in answering this question is the complexity of the background upon which mutations can arise, with multiple potential interactions between genetic loci. We here present a method for discerning selection from a population history that accounts for interference between mutations. Given sequences sampled from multiple time points in the history of a population, we infer selection at each locus by maximizing a likelihood function derived from a multilocus evolution model. We apply the method to the question of distinguishing between loci where new mutations are under positive selection (drivers) and loci that emit neutral mutations (passengers) in a Wright–Fisher model of evolution. Relative to an otherwise equivalent method in which the genetic background of mutations was ignored, our method inferred selection coefficients more accurately for both driver mutations evolving under clonal interference and passenger mutations reaching fixation in the population through genetic drift or hitchhiking. In a population history recorded by 750 sets of sequences of 100 individuals taken at intervals of 100 generations, a set of 50 loci were divided into drivers and passengers with a mean accuracy of >0.95 across a range of numbers of driver loci. The potential application of our model, either in full or in part, to a range of biological systems, is discussed

Inferring Transmission Bottleneck Size from Viral Sequence Data Using a Novel Haplotype Reconstruction Method

The transmission bottleneck is defined as the number of viral particles that transmit from one host to establish an infection in another. Genome sequence data have been used to evaluate the size of the transmission bottleneck between humans infected with the influenza virus; however, the methods used to make these estimates have some limitations. Specifically, viral allele frequencies, which form the basis of many calculations, may not fully capture a process which involves the transmission of entire viral genomes. Here, we set out a novel approach for inferring viral transmission bottlenecks; our method combines an algorithm for haplotype reconstruction with maximum likelihood methods for bottleneck inference. This approach allows for rapid calculation and performs well when applied to data from simulated transmission events; errors in the haplotype reconstruction step did not adversely affect inferences of the population bottleneck. Applied to data from a previous household transmission study of influenza A infection, we confirm the result that the majority of transmission events involve a small number of viruses, albeit with slightly looser bottlenecks being inferred, with between 1 and 13 particles transmitted in the majority of cases. While influenza A transmission involves a tight population bottleneck, the bottleneck is not so tight as to universally prevent the transmission of within-host viral diversity. IMPORTANCE Viral populations undergo a repeated cycle of within-host growth followed by transmission. Viral evolution is affected by each stage of this cycle. The number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another, known as the transmission bottleneck, is an important factor in determining how the evolutionary dynamics of the population play out, restricting the extent to which the evolved diversity of the population can be passed from one host to another. Previous study of viral sequence data has suggested that the transmission bottleneck size for influenza A transmission between human hosts is small. Reevaluating these data using a novel and improved method, we largely confirm this result, albeit that we infer a slightly higher bottleneck size in some cases, of between 1 and 13 virions. While a tight bottleneck operates in human influenza transmission, it is not extreme in nature; some diversity can be meaningfully retained between hosts.Peer reviewe

Mutational load causes stochastic evolutionary outcomes in acute RNA viral infection

Mutational load is known to be of importance for the evolution of RNA viruses, the combination of a high mutation rate and large population size leading to an accumulation of deleterious mutations. However, while the effects of mutational load on global viral populations have been considered, its quantitative effects at the within-host scale of infection are less well understood. We here show that even on the rapid timescale of acute disease, mutational load has an effect on within-host viral adaptation, reducing the effective selection acting upon beneficial variants by ∼10 per cent. Furthermore, mutational load induces considerable stochasticity in the pattern of evolution, causing a more than five-fold uncertainty in the effective fitness of a transmitted beneficial variant. Our work aims to bridge the gap between classic models from population genetic theory and the biology of viral infection. In an advance on some previous models of mutational load, we replace the assumption of a constant variant fitness cost with an experimentally-derived distribution of fitness effects. Expanding previous frameworks for evolutionary simulation, we introduce the Wright-Fisher model with continuous mutation, which describes a continuum of possible modes of replication within a cell. Our results advance our understanding of adaptation in the context of strong selection and a high mutation rate. Despite viral populations having large absolute sizes, critical events in viral adaptation, including antigenic drift and the onset of drug resistance, arise through stochastic evolutionary processes

A de novo approach to inferring within-host fitness effects during untreated HIV-1 infection

Funder: Isaac Newton Trust; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004815Funder: Li Ka Shing Foundation; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007421Funder: Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100006492Funder: Helsingin Yliopisto; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007797In the absence of effective antiviral therapy, HIV-1 evolves in response to the within-host environment, of which the immune system is an important aspect. During the earliest stages of infection, this process of evolution is very rapid, driven by a small number of CTL escape mutations. As the infection progresses, immune escape variants evolve under reduced magnitudes of selection, while competition between an increasing number of polymorphic alleles (i.e., clonal interference) makes it difficult to quantify the magnitude of selection acting upon specific variant alleles. To tackle this complex problem, we developed a novel multi-locus inference method to evaluate the role of selection during the chronic stage of within-host infection. We applied this method to targeted sequence data from the p24 and gp41 regions of HIV-1 collected from 34 patients with long-term untreated HIV-1 infection. We identify a broad distribution of beneficial fitness effects during infection, with a small number of variants evolving under strong selection and very many variants evolving under weaker selection. The uniquely large number of infections analysed granted a previously unparalleled statistical power to identify loci at which selection could be inferred to act with statistical confidence. Our model makes no prior assumptions about the nature of alleles under selection, such that any synonymous or non-synonymous variant may be inferred to evolve under selection. However, the majority of variants inferred with confidence to be under selection were non-synonymous in nature, and in most cases were have previously been associated with either CTL escape in p24 or neutralising antibody escape in gp41. We also identified a putative new CTL escape site (residue 286 in gag), and a region of gp41 (including residues 644, 648, 655 in env) likely to be associated with immune escape. Sites inferred to be under selection in multiple hosts have high within-host and between-host diversity although not all sites with high between-host diversity were inferred to be under selection at the within-host level. Our identification of selection at sites associated with resistance to broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) highlights the need to fully understand the role of selection in untreated individuals when designing bNAb based therapies

The DEEP Groth Strip Galaxy Redshift Survey. III. Redshift Catalog and Properties of Galaxies

The Deep Extragalactic Evolutionary Probe (DEEP) is a series of spectroscopic surveys of faint galaxies, targeted at the properties and clustering of galaxies at redshifts z ~ 1. We present the redshift catalog of the DEEP 1 GSS pilot phase of this project, a Keck/LRIS survey in the HST/WFPC2 Groth Survey Strip. The redshift catalog and data, including reduced spectra, are publicly available through a Web-accessible database. The catalog contains 658 secure galaxy redshifts with a median z=0.65, and shows large-scale structure walls to z = 1. We find a bimodal distribution in the galaxy color-magnitude diagram which persists to z = 1. A similar color division has been seen locally by the SDSS and to z ~ 1 by COMBO-17. For red galaxies, we find a reddening of only 0.11 mag from z ~ 0.8 to now, about half the color evolution measured by COMBO-17. We measure structural properties of the galaxies from the HST imaging, and find that the color division corresponds generally to a structural division. Most red galaxies, ~ 75%, are centrally concentrated, with a red bulge or spheroid, while blue galaxies usually have exponential profiles. However, there are two subclasses of red galaxies that are not bulge-dominated: edge-on disks and a second category which we term diffuse red galaxies (DIFRGs). The distant edge-on disks are similar in appearance and frequency to those at low redshift, but analogs of DIFRGs are rare among local red galaxies. DIFRGs have significant emission lines, indicating that they are reddened mainly by dust rather than age. The DIFRGs in our sample are all at z>0.64, suggesting that DIFRGs are more prevalent at high redshifts; they may be related to the dusty or irregular extremely red objects (EROs) beyond z>1.2 that have been found in deep K-selected surveys. (abridged)Comment: ApJ in press. 24 pages, 17 figures (12 color). The DEEP public database is available at http://saci.ucolick.org

A qualitative process evaluation using the behaviour change wheel approach : did a whole genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 within UK hospitals operate as anticipated?

Purpose The aim of this study was to conduct a process evaluation of a whole-genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 through changing infection prevention and control (IPC) behaviours within the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We used a three-staged design. Firstly, we described and theorized the purported content of the SRF using the behaviour change wheel (BCW). Secondly, we used inductive thematic analysis of one-to-one interviews (n = 39) to explore contextual accounts of using the SRF. Thirdly, further deductive analysis gauged support for the intervention working as earlier anticipated. Results It was possible to theorize the SRF using the BCW approach and visualize it within a simple logic model. Inductive thematic analyses identified the SRF's acceptability, ease of use and perceived effectiveness. However, major challenges to embedding it in routine practice during the unfolding COVID-19 crisis were reported. Notwithstanding this insight, deductive analysis showed support for the putative intervention functions ‘Education’, ‘Persuasion’ and ‘Enablement’; behaviour change techniques ‘1.2 Problem solving’, ‘2.6 Biofeedback’, ‘2.7 Feedback on outcomes of behaviour’ and ‘7.1 Prompts and cues’; and theoretical domains framework domains ‘Knowledge’ and ‘Behavioural regulation’. Conclusions Our process evaluation of the SRF, using the BCW approach to describe and theorize its content, provided granular support for the SRF working to change IPC behaviours as anticipated. However, our complementary inductive thematic analysis highlighted the importance of the local context in constraining its routine use. For SRFs to reach their full potential in reducing nosocomial infections, further implementation research is needed