Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality: a transition model based on analyses of 151 countries

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality account for almost 5 million deaths a year and are often analysed separately, despite having overlapping causes and interventions. We propose a comprehensive five-phase mortality transition model to improve analyses of progress and inform strategic planning. METHODS: In this empirical data-driven study to develop a model transition, we used UN estimates for 151 countries to assess changes in maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths. On the basis of ratios of maternal to stillbirth and neonatal mortality, we identified five phases of transition, in which phase 1 has the highest mortality and phase 5 has the lowest. We used global databases to examine phase-specific characteristics during 2000-20 for causes of death, fertility rates, abortion policies, health workforce and financing, and socioeconomic indicators. We analysed 326 national surveys to assess service coverage and inequalities by transition phase. FINDINGS: Among 116 countries in phases 1 to 4 in 2000, 73 (63%) progressed at least one phase by 2020, six advanced two phases, and three regressed. The ratio of stillbirth and neonatal deaths to maternal deaths increased from less than 10 in phase 1 to well over 50 in phase 4 and phase 5. Progression was associated with a declining proportion of deaths caused by infectious diseases and peripartum complications, declining total and adolescent fertility rates, changes in health-workforce densities and skills mix (ie, ratio of nurses or midwives to physicians) from phase 3 onwards, increasing per-capita health spending, and reducing shares of out-of-pocket health expenditures. From phase 1 to 5, the median coverage of first antenatal care visits increased from 66% to 98%, four or more antenatal care visits from 44% to 94%, institutional births from 36% to 99%, and caesarean section rates from 2% to 25%. The transition out of high-mortality phases involved a major increase in institutional births, primarily in lower-level health facilities, whereas subsequent progress was characterised by rapid increases in hospital births. Wealth-related inequalities reduced strongly for institutional birth coverage from phase 3 onwards. INTERPRETATION: The five-phase maternal mortality, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality transition model can be used to benchmark the current indicators in comparison to typical patterns in the transition at national or sub-national level, identify outliers to better assess drivers of progress, and inform strategic planning and investments towards Sustainable Development Goal targets. It can also facilitate programming for integrated strategies to end preventable maternal mortality and neonatal mortality and stillbirths. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Growth Recovery Among HIV-infected Children Randomized to Lopinavir/Ritonavir or NNRTI-based Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Diminished growth is highly prevalent among HIV-infected children and might be improved by antiretroviral therapy (ART). We examined growth recovery in a rural Ugandan cohort of HIV-infected children randomized to lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) or non nucleoside reverse transcription inhibitor-based ART. METHODS: HIV-infected children 2 months to 6 years of age were randomized to LPV/r- or non nucleoside reverse transcription inhibitor-based ART. Changes in weight-for-age (WAZ), height-for-age (HAZ) and weight-for-height Z-scores for 24 months were evaluated using generalized linear repeated measures models. Recovery from being underweight (WAZ<-2), stunted (HAZ<-2) and wasted (weight-for-height <-2) to Z-scores greater than -2 was also compared by arm using Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard modeling. RESULTS: A total of 129 children with median age of 3 years initiated therapy; 64 received LPV/r-based and 65 non nucleoside reverse transcription inhibitor-based ART (nevirapine: 36 and efavirenz: 29). The median (interquartile range) difference in growth measures between baseline and 24 months for LPV/r (n = 45) versus non nucleoside reverse transcription inhibitor-based therapy (n = 40) were as follows: WAZ, 0.47 (0.10, 1.62) versus 0.53 (0.03, 1.14) (P = 0.59) and HAZ, median 1.55 (0.78, 1.86) versus 1.19 (0.62, 1.65) (P = 0.23), respectively. ART regimen was not predictive of change in WAZ (β: -0.02, 95% confidence interval: -0.25, 0.20) or HAZ (β: 0.05, 95% confidence interval: -0.10, 0.19). The presence of confirmed virologic failure was not associated with growth. CONCLUSIONS: Most ART-naive children experienced recovery of both WAZ and HAZ over the 24 months after ART initiation, with no significant difference between those receiving LPV/r versus non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART. However, the persistence of median Z-scores below 0 underscores the need for additional strategies to improve growth outcomes in HIV+ African children

"Learn from the lessons and don't forget them": Identifying transferable lessons for COVID-19 from meningitis A, yellow fever, and Ebola virus disease vaccination campaigns

Introduction: COVID-19 vaccines are now being distributed to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global urgency surrounding national vaccination plans. LMICs have significant experience implementing vaccination campaigns to respond to epidemic threats but are often hindered by chronic health system challenges. We sought to identify transferable lessons for COVID-19 vaccination from the rollout of three vaccines that targeted adult groups in Africa and South America: MenAfriVac (meningitis A); 17D (yellow fever); and rVSV-ZEBOV (Ebola virus disease). Methods: We conducted a rapid literature review and 24 semi-structured interviews with technical experts who had direct implementation experience with the selected vaccines in Africa and South America. We identified barriers, enablers, and key lessons from the literature and from participants&amp;#39 experiences. Interview data were analysed thematically according to seven implementation domains. Results: Participants highlighted multiple components of vaccination campaigns that are instrumental for achieving high coverage. Community engagement is an essential and effective tool, requiring dedicated time, funding and workforce. Involving local health workers is a key enabler, as is collaborating with community leaders to map social groups and tailor vaccination strategies to their needs. Vaccination team recruitment and training strategies need to be enhanced to support vaccination campaigns. Although recognised as challenging, integrating vaccination campaigns with other routine health services can be highly beneficial if well planned and coordinated across health programmes and with communities. Conclusion: As supplies of COVID-19 vaccines become available to LMICs, countries need to prepare to efficiently roll out the vaccine, encourage uptake among eligible groups, and respond to potential community concerns. Lessons from the implementation of these three vaccines that targeted adults in LMICs can be used to inform best practice for COVID-19 and other epidemic vaccination campaigns

Pharmaceutical Availability across Levels of Care: Evidence from Facility Surveys in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda

In this study we use facility-level data from nationally representative surveys conducted in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda to understand pharmaceutical availability within the three countries

Antiretroviral agents and prevention of malaria in HIV-infected Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protease inhibitors show activity against Plasmodium falciparum in vitro. We hypothesized that the incidence of malaria in HIV-infected children would be lower among children receiving lopinavir-ritonavir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) than among those receiving nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART. METHODS: We conducted an open-label trial in which HIV-infected children 2 months to 5 years of age who were eligible for ART or were currently receiving NNRTI-based ART were randomly assigned to either lopinavir-ritonavir-based ART or NNRTI-based ART and were followed for 6 months to 2 years. Cases of uncomplicated malaria were treated with artemether-lumefantrine. The primary end point was the incidence of malaria. RESULTS: We enrolled 176 children, of whom 170 received the study regimen: 86 received NNRTI-based ART, and 84 lopinavir-ritonavir-based ART. The incidence of malaria was lower among children receiving the lopinavir-ritonavir-based regimen than among those receiving the NNRTI-based regimen (1.32 vs. 2.25 episodes per person-year; incidence-rate ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36 to 0.97; P=0.04), as was the risk of a recurrence of malaria after treatment with artemether-lumefantrine (28.1% vs. 54.2%; hazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.004). The median lumefantrine level on day 7 after treatment for malaria was significantly higher in the lopinavir-ritonavir group than in the NNRTI group. In the lopinavir-ritonavir group, lumefantrine levels exceeding 300 ng per milliliter on day 7 were associated with a reduction of more than 85% in the 63-day risk of recurrent malaria. A greater number of serious adverse events occurred in the lopinavir-ritonavir group than in the NNRTI group (5.6% vs. 2.3%, P=0.16). Pruritus occurred significantly more frequently in the lopinavir-ritonavir group, and elevated alanine aminotransferase levels significantly more frequently in the NNRTI group. CONCLUSIONS: Lopinavir-ritonavir-based ART as compared with NNRTI-based ART reduced the incidence of malaria by 41%, with the lower incidence attributable largely to a significant reduction in the recurrence of malaria after treatment with artemether-lumefantrine. Lopinavir-ritonavir-based ART was accompanied by an increase in serious adverse events. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00978068.)

Uptake of WHO recommendations for first-line antiretroviral therapy in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines were significantly changed by the World Health Organization in 2010. It is largely unknown to what extent these guidelines were adopted into clinical practice. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational analysis of first-line ART regimens in a sample of health facilities providing ART in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012. Data were analyzed for changes in regimen over time and assessed for key patient- and facility-level determinants of tenofovir (TDF) utilization in Kenya and Uganda using a mixed effects model. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 29,507 patients from 146 facilities. The overall percentage of patients initiated on TDF-based therapy increased between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012 from 3% to 37% in Kenya, 2% to 34% in Uganda, and 64% to 87% in Zambia. A simultaneous decrease in stavudine (d4T) utilization was also noted, but its use was not eliminated, and there remained significant variation in facility prescribing patterns. For patients initiating ART in 2011-2012, we found increased odds of TDF use with more advanced disease at initiation in both Kenya (odds ratio [OR]: 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73-4.48) and Uganda (OR: 2.15; 95% CI: 1.46-3.17). Having a CD4 test performed at initiation was also a significant predictor in Uganda (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.16-1.76). No facility-level determinants of TDF utilization were seen in Kenya, but private facilities (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.45-5.66) and those employing a doctor (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.48-5.51) were more likely to initiate patients on TDF in Uganda. DISCUSSION: d4T-based ART has largely been phased out over the study period. However, significant in-country and cross-country variation exists. Among the most recently initiated patients, those with more advanced disease at initiation were most likely to start TDF-based treatment. No facility-level determinants were consistent across countries to explain the observed facility-level variation

Pharmaceutical availability across levels of care: evidence from facility surveys in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: In this study we use facility-level data from nationally representative surveys conducted in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda to understand pharmaceutical availability within the three countries. METHODS: In 2012, we conducted a survey to capture information on pharmaceuticals and other facility indicators from over 200 facilities in each country. We analyze data on the availability of pharmaceuticals and quantify its association with various facility-level indicators. We analyze both availability of essential medicines, as defined by the various essential medicine lists (EMLs) of each respective country, and availability of all surveyed pharmaceuticals deemed important for treatment of various high-burden diseases, including those on the EMLs. RESULTS: We find that there is heterogeneity with respect to availability across the three countries with Ghana generally having better availability than Uganda and Kenya. To analyze the relationship between facility-level factors and pharmaceutical stock-out we use a binomial regression model. We find that the factors associated with stock-out vary by country, but across all countries both presence of a laboratory at the facility and presence of a vehicle at the facility are significantly associated with reduced stock-out. CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the poor availability of essential medicines across these three countries and suggest more needs to be done to strengthen the supply system so that stock remains uninterrupted

The potential to expand antiretroviral therapy by improving health facility efficiency: evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, international funding for HIV has supported scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. However, such funding has stagnated for years, threatening the sustainability and reach of ART programs amid efforts to achieve universal treatment. Improving health system efficiencies, particularly at the facility level, is an increasingly critical avenue for extending limited resources for ART; nevertheless, the potential impact of increased facility efficiency on ART capacity remains largely unknown. Through the present study, we sought to quantify facility-level technical efficiency across countries, assess potential determinants of efficiency, and predict the potential for additional ART expansion. METHODS: Using nationally-representative facility datasets from Kenya, Uganda and Zambia, and measures adjusting for structural quality, we estimated facility-level technical efficiency using an ensemble approach that combined restricted versions of Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Distance Function. We then conducted a series of bivariate and multivariate regression analyses to evaluate possible determinants of higher or lower technical efficiency. Finally, we predicted the potential for ART expansion across efficiency improvement scenarios, estimating how many additional ART visits could be accommodated if facilities with low efficiency thresholds reached those levels of efficiency. RESULTS: In each country, national averages of efficiency fell below 50 % and facility-level efficiency markedly varied. Among facilities providing ART, average efficiency scores spanned from 50 % (95 % uncertainty interval (UI), 48-62 %) in Uganda to 59 % (95 % UI, 53-67 %) in Zambia. Of the facility determinants analyzed, few were consistently associated with higher or lower technical efficiency scores, suggesting that other factors may be more strongly related to facility-level efficiency. Based on observed facility resources and an efficiency improvement scenario where all facilities providing ART reached 80 % efficiency, we predicted a 33 % potential increase in ART visits in Kenya, 62 % in Uganda, and 33 % in Zambia. Given observed resources in facilities offering ART, we estimated that 459,000 new ART patients could be seen if facilities in these countries reached 80 % efficiency, equating to a 40 % increase in new patients. CONCLUSIONS: Health facilities in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia could notably expand ART services if the efficiency with which they operate increased. Improving how facility resources are used, and not simply increasing their quantity, has the potential to substantially elevate the impact of global health investments and reduce treatment gaps for people living with HIV

Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. Findings: In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95$20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4–5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6–4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7–2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24–65) to$413 (263–668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90–200) to$1699 (711–3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3–38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4–98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. Interpretation: We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation