A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Emotional stress as a trigger of myasthenic crisis and concomitant takotsubo cardiomyopathy: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Myasthenia gravis is a neuromuscular junction post-synaptic autoimmune disorder. Myasthenic crisis is characterized by respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. Takotsubo cardiomyopathy is a rare clinical syndrome defined as a profound but reversible left ventricular dysfunction in the absence of coronary artery disease.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report a unique case of a 60-year-old Hispanic woman with myasthenia gravis who developed takotsubo cardiomyopathy and concomitant myasthenic crisis that appear to have been triggered by a stressful life event. On admission, she presented with severe mid-sternal chest pain and shortness of breath shortly after a personally significant stressful life event. A pertinent neurological examination showed bilateral facial weakness and right ptosis. The left ventriculogram showed apical ballooning with hyperdynamic proximal segments with sparing of the apex. Her troponin I level was elevated, while cardiac catheterization revealed no significant coronary artery disease. The findings were consistent with takotsubo cardiomyopathy. Shortly after cardiac catheterization, she developed bilateral ophthalmoparesis and significant bulbar and respiratory muscle weakness. Forced vital capacity values were persistently less than 1 L. The patient developed respiratory failure and required endotracheal intubation. After plasmapheresis and corticosteroid treatment, her clinical course improved with successful extubation. A normal left ventricle chamber size and a normal ejection fraction were noted by an echocardiogram repeated 10 months later.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first reported case of the simultaneous triggering of both takotsubo cardiomyopathy and myasthenic crisis by the physiologic consequences of a state of severe emotional stress. We hypothesize that the mechanism underlying the rare association of takotsubo cardiomyopathy with myasthenic crisis involves excessive endogenous glucocorticoid release, a high-catecholamine state, or a combination of both. We advocate careful cardiac monitoring of myasthenia gravis patients during acute emotional or physical stress, as there is potential risk of developing takotsubo cardiomyopathy.</p

Protein Pattern Formation

Protein pattern formation is essential for the spatial organization of many intracellular processes like cell division, flagellum positioning, and chemotaxis. A prominent example of intracellular patterns are the oscillatory pole-to-pole oscillations of Min proteins in \textit{E. coli} whose biological function is to ensure precise cell division. Cell polarization, a prerequisite for processes such as stem cell differentiation and cell polarity in yeast, is also mediated by a diffusion-reaction process. More generally, these functional modules of cells serve as model systems for self-organization, one of the core principles of life. Under which conditions spatio-temporal patterns emerge, and how these patterns are regulated by biochemical and geometrical factors are major aspects of current research. Here we review recent theoretical and experimental advances in the field of intracellular pattern formation, focusing on general design principles and fundamental physical mechanisms.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, review articl

A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of prednisone in early Henoch Schönlein Purpura [ISRCTN85109383]

BACKGROUND: Henoch Schönlein Purpura (HSP) is the most common systemic vasculitis of childhood. There is considerable controversy over whether children with HSP should be treated with corticosteroids. The goal of this study was to investigate whether early corticosteroid administration could reduce the rate of renal or gastrointestinal complications in children with HSP. METHODS: Forty children with HSP, seen in the emergency room of a tertiary-care, paediatric centre, entered a randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled study. The treatment group (n = 21) received oral prednisone, 2 mg/kg/day for one week, with weaning over a second week, while the placebo group (n = 19) received an identical appearing placebo. Co-primary outcomes were the rate of renal involvement at one year and the rate of acute gastrointestinal complications. Co-primary outcomes were analysed using Fisher's Exact test. RESULTS: At one year, there was no difference in the rate of renal involvement (3/21 prednisone group vs. 2/19 placebo group, P = 1.0). There was also no statistically significant difference in the rate of acute gastrointestinal complications (2/21 prednisone group vs. 3/19 placebo group, P = 0.7). Two children in the placebo group did experience intussusceptions compared with none in the prednisone group (P = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Early prednisone therapy in HSP does not appear to reduce the risk of renal involvement at one year, or the risk of acute gastrointestinal complications. There may be a reduced risk of intussusception. The routine, early use of prednisone in uncomplicated HSP cannot be recommended at this time

Redrawing Boundaries: WITNESS and the Politics of Citizen Videos

This article engages with several pressing issues revolving around ‘citizen witnessing’, with specific reference to the human rights advocacy group, WITNESS. In the course of tracing WITNESS’ development over the past two decades, it offers an evaluative assessment of the challenges its members have faced in promoting a grassroots, citizen-centred approach to video reportage. More specifically, this advocacy is informed by an ethical commitment to advancing human rights causes by equipping citizens in crisis situations with cameras, and the training to use them, so that they might bear witness to the plight of others. In so doing, this article argues, WITNESS offers a tactical reformulation of the guiding tenets of peace journalism, one with considerable potential for recasting anew its strategic priorities

Accelerated partial breast irradiation: the case for current use

The treatment of early stage breast cancer is evolving from traditional breast conservation techniques, employing conventionally fractionated whole breast irradiation, to techniques in which partial breast irradiation is used in an accelerated fractionation scheme. A growing body of evidence exists, including favorable findings. Additional studies are under way that may ultimately prove equivalence. The logic behind this approach is reviewed, and the currently available data are presented to support the current use of carefully applied partial breast irradiation techniques in appropriately selected and informed patients

Premenstrual enhancement of snake detection in visual search in healthy women

It is well known that adult humans detect images of snakes as targets more quickly than images of flowers as targets whether the images are in color or gray-scale. When such visual searches were performed by a total of 60 adult premenopausal healthy women in the present study to examine whether their performance would fluctuate across the phases of the menstrual cycle, snake detection was found to become temporarily enhanced during the luteal phase as compared to early or late follicular phases. This is the first demonstration of the existence of within-individual variation of the activity of the fear module, as a predictable change in cognitive strength, which appears likely to be due to the hormonal changes that occur in the menstrual cycle of healthy women

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and the estimation of between-study correlation

BACKGROUND: When multiple endpoints are of interest in evidence synthesis, a multivariate meta-analysis can jointly synthesise those endpoints and utilise their correlation. A multivariate random-effects meta-analysis must incorporate and estimate the between-study correlation (ρ(B)). METHODS: In this paper we assess maximum likelihood estimation of a general normal model and a generalised model for bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BRMA). We consider two applied examples, one involving a diagnostic marker and the other a surrogate outcome. These motivate a simulation study where estimation properties from BRMA are compared with those from two separate univariate random-effects meta-analyses (URMAs), the traditional approach. RESULTS: The normal BRMA model estimates ρ(B )as -1 in both applied examples. Analytically we show this is due to the maximum likelihood estimator sensibly truncating the between-study covariance matrix on the boundary of its parameter space. Our simulations reveal this commonly occurs when the number of studies is small or the within-study variation is relatively large; it also causes upwardly biased between-study variance estimates, which are inflated to compensate for the restriction on [Formula: see text] (B). Importantly, this does not induce any systematic bias in the pooled estimates and produces conservative standard errors and mean-square errors. Furthermore, the normal BRMA is preferable to two normal URMAs; the mean-square error and standard error of pooled estimates is generally smaller in the BRMA, especially given data missing at random. For meta-analysis of proportions we then show that a generalised BRMA model is better still. This correctly uses a binomial rather than normal distribution, and produces better estimates than the normal BRMA and also two generalised URMAs; however the model may sometimes not converge due to difficulties estimating ρ(B). CONCLUSION: A BRMA model offers numerous advantages over separate univariate synthesises; this paper highlights some of these benefits in both a normal and generalised modelling framework, and examines the estimation of between-study correlation to aid practitioners

Identification of Novel Mt-Guab2 Inhibitor Series Active against M. tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide. With the emergence of multidrug resistant TB, extensively drug resistant TB and HIV-associated TB it is imperative that new drug targets be identified. The potential of Mycobacterium tuberculosis inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase (IMPDH) as a novel drug target was explored in the present study. IMPDH exclusively catalyzes the conversion of inosine monophosphate (IMP) to xanthosine monophosphate (XMP) in the presence of the cofactor nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+). Although the enzyme is a dehydrogenase, the enzyme does not catalyze the reverse reaction i.e. the conversion of XMP to IMP. Unlike other bacteria, M. tuberculosis harbors three IMPDH-like genes, designated as Mt-guaB1, Mt-guaB2 and Mt-guaB3 respectively. Of the three putative IMPDH's, we previously confirmed that Mt-GuaB2 was the only functional ortholog by characterizing the enzyme kinetically. Using an in silico approach based on designed scaffolds, a series of novel classes of inhibitors was identified. The inhibitors possess good activity against M. tuberculosis with MIC values in the range of 0.4 to 11.4 µg mL−1. Among the identified ligands, two inhibitors have nanomolar Kis against the Mt-GuaB2 enzyme