Preference uncertainty as an explanation of anomalies in contingent valuation: coastal management in the UK

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordDirectly asking respondents in contingent valuation surveys their willingness-to-pay is one of the few quantitative methods available to assess full economic value (including both use and non-use values) of non-market environmental goods. It therefore remains vitally important to better understand the reasons for consistently observed violations of procedural invariance in such surveys. This paper describes an empirical experiment designed to examine whether uncertainty might provide an explanation for three commonly-observed violations of procedural invariance in contingent valuation. In each case we present a plausible explanation for each anomaly through decision heuristics brought about by respondents trying to answer the question truthfully when their underlying preferences are stable but uncertain. Using a novel semi-parametric estimator we find little evidence to support the idea that anomalies can be resolved through an uncertainty explanation but our experiment provides noteworthy insights into the ways uncertain preferences may be shaped by the nature of contingent valuation questions

Angular response of hot-wire probes

A new equation for the convective heat loss from the sensor of a hot-wire probe is derived which accounts for both the potential and the viscous parts of the ow past the prongs. The convective heat loss from the sensor is related to the far- eld velocity by an expression containing a term representing the potential ow around the prongs, and a term representing their viscous e ect. This latter term is absent in the response equations available in the literature but is essential in representing some features of the observed response of miniature hot-wire probes. The response equation contains only four parameters but it can reproduce, with great accuracy, the behaviour of commonly used single-wire probes. The response equation simpli es the calibration the angular response of rotated slanted hot-wire probes: only standard King's law parameters and a Reynolds-dependent drag coefficient need to be determined

Valuing the social and environmental contribution of woodlands and trees in England, Scotland and Wales

Final published report. This publication is also available on the Foresty Commission website at: www.forestry.gov.uk/publicationsFirst published by the Forestry Commission in 2017.A second edition of this report is available in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/36539The diverse resources provided by trees and woodlands contribute to the production of a wide array of benefits ranging from timber to wildlife habitats and from carbon storage to water purification. This diversity is further complicated by the fact that, while some of the goods associated with forests are traded in markets and hence have associated prices, others arise outside markets and, while valuable, lack prices. The need to make evidencebased decisions regarding woodlands, including decisions such as how much public funding should be allocated to support the non-market benefits they generate, has necessitated the estimation of the value of those benefits. This scoping study provides a structured review of the state of knowledge regarding the economic valuation of social and environmental benefits derived from trees and woodlands in order to support policy and practice. Particular (although not exclusive) attention is paid to recent extensions to the literature since previous reviews (especially Eftec, 2011)

Valuing the social and environmental contribution of woodlands and trees in England, Scotland and Wales. Second edition: to 2018

The first edition of this report is available in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/25958Woodlands and forests constitute arguably the most diverse environments on earth; diverse not only in terms of the plethora of characteristics and habitats they embrace, but also through the variety of benefits and values that they offer to people. While this diversity of benefits is now widely recognised, incorporating these values into decisions regarding the management and extension of woodland remains a challenge. While the value of some forest products, such as timber, is readily reflected within market prices, this is the exception rather than the rule. Most of the benefits provided by woodlands are not traded through markets and are therefore unpriced public goods. The UK Forestry Commission have for many years directly addressed the problem of incorporating the non-market benefits of woodland within conventional economic decision making through the application of techniques to estimate the economic value of these benefits (e.g. Willis, et al., 2003). As part of this initiative, in 2015 the Forestry Commission began working with the authors of the present report to provide a review of the research, policy and grey literature concerned with the economic valuation of the social and environmental benefits of woodlands and trees. This review, subsequently published as Binner et al., (2017) also included the development of a spreadsheet based decision support tool to facilitate the use of valuation estimates within decision making. The present report provides a second edition of that report, updating both the literature review and the accompanying spreadsheet decision support tool. In preparing this study, the research team at the University of Exeter undertook a structured reviewed of how technical and methodological developments are transforming the potential for robust valuation of non-market benefits and allied decision-making. The methods, data and modelling techniques, which underpin the existing evidence base on the value of woodlands and trees were critically evaluated, so as to provide a practical set of actionable options for enhancing that evidence base and improving decision making

Phase-averaged flow statistics in compressors using a rotated hot-wire technique

A technique based on a rotated hot wire has been developed to characterise the unsteady, three-dimensional flow field between compressor blade rows. Data are acquired from a slanted hot wire rotated through a number of orientations at each measurement point. Phase-averaged velocity statistics are obtained by solving a set of sensor response equations using a weighted, non-linear regression algorithm. The accuracy and robustness of the method were verified a priori by conducting a series of tests using synthetic data. The method is demonstrated by acquiring a full set of phase-averaged flow statistics in the wake of a compressor stator blade row. The technique allows three components of phase-averaged velocity, six components of phase-averaged deterministic stress, and six components of phase-averaged Reynolds stress to be recovered using a single rotated hot-wire probe.The authors gratefully acknowledge Rolls-Royce plc and the UK TSB TUFT programme for funding this work and granting permission for its publication

The natural capital approach to integrating science, economics and policy into decisions affecting the natural environment

This is the final version. Available on open access from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordNatural capital refers to those stocks of assets provided for free by nature which, directly or indirectly, deliver well-being for humans. These include freshwater, fertile soils, clean air and living things. Natural capital stocks deliver flows of services, often called ecosystem services, which (often in combination with flows from other capital including human labour, ingenuity and manufactured goods) produce the benefits upon which humans depend for economic well-being and their very existence. Economic activity depends on natural capital while also affecting the stock of those assets. This relationship between the environment, the economy and human well-being has caught the attention of governments at both global and national levels. But how should governments incorporate the notion of natural capital into policy- and decision-making? We set out to define the notion of natural capital and how it can be brought into the economic analyses which underpin the majority of policy decision-making systems. We consider the means by which changes can be best directed to reflect the underlying science of the environment, the incentives of the economy and the preferences of society.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The modelled output data that support the findings of this study are openly available from: Smith, G. S. & Ritchie, P. D. L. (NERC Environmental Information Data Centre: 639 doi.org/10.5285/e1c1dbcf-2f37-429b-af19-a730f98600f6, 2019).Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’ where abrupt, non-linear change in climate occurs - such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic/land use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output, an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear prohibitive in this instance.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Alan Turing Institut

Airborne measurements of western U.S. wildfire emissions: Comparison with prescribed burning and air quality implications

Wildfires emit significant amounts of pollutants that degrade air quality. Plumes from three wildfires in the western U.S. were measured from aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), both in summer 2013. This study reports an extensive set of emission factors (EFs) for over 80 gases and 5 components of submicron particulate matter (PM1) from these temperate wildfires. These include rarely, or never before, measured oxygenated volatile organic compounds and multifunctional organic nitrates. The observed EFs are compared with previous measurements of temperate wildfires, boreal forest fires, and temperate prescribed fires. The wildfires emitted high amounts of PM1 (with organic aerosol (OA) dominating the mass) with an average EF that is more than 2 times the EFs for prescribed fires. The measured EFs were used to estimate the annual wildfire emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total nonmethane organic compounds, and PM1 from 11 western U.S. states. The estimated gas emissions are generally comparable with the 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). However, our PM1 emission estimate (1530 ± 570 Gg yr-1) is over 3 times that of the NEI PM2.5 estimate and is also higher thanthe PM2.5 emitted from all other sources in these states in the NEI. This study indicates that the source of OA from biomass burning in the western states is significantly underestimated. In addition, our results indicate that prescribed burning may be an effective method to reduce fine particle emissions

Effect of smoking on physical and cognitive capability in later life: a multicohort study using observational and genetic approaches

Objectives: The observed associations between smoking and functional measures at older ages are vulnerable to bias and confounding. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses genotype as an instrumental variable to estimate unconfounded causal associations. We conducted a meta-analysis of the observational associations and implemented an MR approach using the smoking-related single nucleotide polymorphism rs16969968 to explore their causal nature. Setting: 9 British cohorts belonging to the HALCyon collaboration. Participants: Individual participant data on N=26 692 individuals of European ancestry (N from earliest phase analysed per study) of mean ages 50-79 years were available for inclusion in observational meta-analyses of the primary outcomes. Primary outcomes: Physical capability, cognitive capability and cognitive decline. The smoking exposures were cigarettes per day, current versus ex-smoker, current versus never smoker and ever versus never smoker. Results: In observational analyses current and ever smoking were generally associated with poorer physical and cognitive capability. For example, current smokers had a general fluid cognition score which was 0.17 z-score units (95% CI -0.221 to -0.124) lower than ex-smokers in cross-sectional analyses. Current smokers had a walk speed which was 0.25 z-score units lower than never smokers (95% CI -0.338 to -0.170). An MR instrumental variable approach for current versus ex-smoker and number of cigarettes smoked per day produced CIs which neither confirmed nor refuted the observational estimates. The number of genetic associations stratified by smoking status were consistent with type I error. Conclusions: Our observational analysis supports the hypothesis that smoking is detrimental to physical and cognitive capability. Further studies are needed for a suitably powered MR approach