A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland

Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales. We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected. We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses). For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis]. After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures

Giant Clusters in Random Ad Hoc Networks

The present paper introduces ad hoc communication networks as examples of large scale real networks that can be prospected by statistical means. A description of giant cluster formation based on the single parameter of node neighbor numbers is given along with the discussion of some asymptotic aspects of the giant cluster sizes.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; typos and correction

Reasoning algebraically about refinement on TSO architectures

The Total Store Order memory model is widely implemented by modern multicore architectures such as x86, where local buffers are used for optimisation, allowing limited forms of instruction reordering. The presence of buffers and hardware-controlled buffer flushes increases the level of non-determinism from the level specified by a program, complicating the already difficult task of concurrent programming. This paper presents a new notion of refinement for weak memory models, based on the observation that pending writes to a process' local variables may be treated as if the effect of the update has already occurred in shared memory. We develop an interval-based model with algebraic rules for various programming constructs. In this framework, several decomposition rules for our new notion of refinement are developed. We apply our approach to verify the spinlock algorithm from the literature

Pseudofractal Scale-free Web

We find that scale-free random networks are excellently modeled by a deterministic graph. This graph has a discrete degree distribution (degree is the number of connections of a vertex) which is characterized by a power-law with exponent $\gamma=1+\ln3/\ln2$. Properties of this simple structure are surprisingly close to those of growing random scale-free networks with $\gamma$ in the most interesting region, between 2 and 3. We succeed to find exactly and numerically with high precision all main characteristics of the graph. In particular, we obtain the exact shortest-path-length distribution. For the large network ($\ln N \gg 1$) the distribution tends to a Gaussian of width $\sim \sqrt{\ln N}$ centered at $\bar{\ell} \sim \ln N$. We show that the eigenvalue spectrum of the adjacency matrix of the graph has a power-law tail with exponent $2+\gamma$.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Ice giant magnetospheres

The ice giant planets provide some of the most interesting natural laboratories for studying the influence of large obliquities, rapid rotation, highly asymmetric magnetic fields and wide-ranging Alfvénic and sonic Mach numbers on magnetospheric processes. The geometries of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction at the ice giants vary dramatically on diurnal timescales due to the large tilt of the magnetic axis relative to each planet's rotational axis and the apparent off-centred nature of the magnetic field. There is also a seasonal effect on this interaction geometry due to the large obliquity of each planet (especially Uranus). With in situ observations at Uranus and Neptune limited to a single encounter by the Voyager 2 spacecraft, a growing number of analytical and numerical models have been put forward to characterize these unique magnetospheres and test hypotheses related to the magnetic structures and the distribution of plasma observed. Yet many questions regarding magnetospheric structure and dynamics, magnetospheric coupling to the ionosphere and atmosphere, and potential interactions with orbiting satellites remain unanswered. Continuing to study and explore ice giant magnetospheres is important for comparative planetology as they represent critical benchmarks on a broad spectrum of planetary magnetospheric interactions, and provide insight beyond the scope of our own Solar System with implications for exoplanet magnetospheres and magnetic reversals. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Future exploration of ice giant systems'

Coevolution of Glauber-like Ising dynamics on typical networks

We consider coevolution of site status and link structures from two different initial networks: a one dimensional Ising chain and a scale free network. The dynamics is governed by a preassigned stability parameter $S$, and a rewiring factor $\phi$, that determines whether the Ising spin at the chosen site flips or whether the node gets rewired to another node in the system. This dynamics has also been studied with Ising spins distributed randomly among nodes which lie on a network with preferential attachment. We have observed the steady state average stability and magnetisation for both kinds of systems to have an idea about the effect of initial network topology. Although the average stability shows almost similar behaviour, the magnetisation depends on the initial condition we start from. Apart from the local dynamics, the global effect on the dynamics has also been studied. These parameters show interesting variations for different values of $S$ and $\phi$, which helps in determining the steady-state condition for a given substrate.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figure

Ice giant system exploration in the 2020s:an introduction

The international planetary science community met in London in January 2020, united in the goal of realizing the first dedicated robotic mission to the distant ice giants, Uranus and Neptune, as the only major class of solar system planet yet to be comprehensively explored. Ice-giant-sized worlds appear to be a common outcome of the planet formation process, and pose unique and extreme tests to our understanding of exotic water-rich planetary interiors, dynamic and frigid atmospheres, complex magnetospheric configurations, geologically-rich icy satellites (both natural and captured), and delicate planetary rings. This article introduces a special issue on ice giant system exploration at the start of the 2020s. We review the scientific potential and existing mission design concepts for an ambitious international partnership for exploring Uranus and/or Neptune in the coming decades. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Future exploration of ice giant systems'

Correlation between centrality metrics and their application to the opinion model

In recent decades, a number of centrality metrics describing network properties of nodes have been proposed to rank the importance of nodes. In order to understand the correlations between centrality metrics and to approximate a high-complexity centrality metric by a strongly correlated low-complexity metric, we first study the correlation between centrality metrics in terms of their Pearson correlation coefficient and their similarity in ranking of nodes. In addition to considering the widely used centrality metrics, we introduce a new centrality measure, the degree mass. The m order degree mass of a node is the sum of the weighted degree of the node and its neighbors no further than m hops away. We find that the B_{n}, the closeness, and the components of x_{1} are strongly correlated with the degree, the 1st-order degree mass and the 2nd-order degree mass, respectively, in both network models and real-world networks. We then theoretically prove that the Pearson correlation coefficient between x_{1} and the 2nd-order degree mass is larger than that between x_{1} and a lower order degree mass. Finally, we investigate the effect of the inflexible antagonists selected based on different centrality metrics in helping one opinion to compete with another in the inflexible antagonists opinion model. Interestingly, we find that selecting the inflexible antagonists based on the leverage, the B_{n}, or the degree is more effective in opinion-competition than using other centrality metrics in all types of networks. This observation is supported by our previous observations, i.e., that there is a strong linear correlation between the degree and the B_{n}, as well as a high centrality similarity between the leverage and the degree.Comment: 20 page

Gender differentials in the impact of parental death: Adolescent's sexual behaviour and risk of HIV infection in rural South Africa

Using data from a longitudinal surveillance study from rural South Africa, we investigated the odds of sexual debut, pregnancy and HIV infection of 15- to 19-year-old adolescents by parental survival. Using descriptive statistics and logistic regressions, we examine the relative risk of orphans compared with non-orphans to have ever had sex, being pregnant and being HIV infected, adjusting for age, sex, socio-economic status, education, being employed and residency. Of 8274 adolescents, 42% were orphaned (one or both parents died). Over 80% of adolescents remained in school, but orphans were significantly more likely to lag behind in grade for age. Female adolescent maternal (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.071.62), paternal (aOR 1.26, 95% CI 1.061.49) and dual (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.051.78) orphans were significantly more likely than non-orphaned females to have ever had sex; among males it was only paternal (aOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.051.53) orphans. Maternal (aOR 1.49, 95% CI 1.032.15) and dual (aOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.112.73) female orphans relative to non-orphaned females were significantly more likely to be HIV infected; male paternal (aOR 3.41, 95% CI 1.378.46) and dual (aOR 3.54, 95% CI 1.0611.86) orphans had over three-fold the odds of being infected. There was strong evidence that death of mother for girls was associated with increased vulnerability to earlier sexual debut and HIV infection, while fathers appeared to play a significant role in both their son's and daughter's lives