Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. <br><br> The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast

Modeling of Individual and Organizational Factors Affecting Traumatic Occupational Injuries Based on the Structural Equation Modeling: A Case Study in Large Construction Industries

Background: Individual and organizational factors are the factors influencing traumatic occupational injuries. Objectives: The aim of the present study was the short path analysis of the severity of occupational injuries based on individual and organizational factors. Materials and Methods: The present cross-sectional analytical study was implemented on traumatic occupational injuries within a ten-year timeframe in 13 large Iranian construction industries. Modeling and data analysis were done using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach and the IBM SPSS AMOS statistical software version 22.0, respectively. Results: The mean age and working experience of the injured workers were 28.03 ± 5.33 and 4.53 ± 3.82 years, respectively. The portions of construction and installation activities of traumatic occupational injuries were 64.4% and 18.1%, respectively. The SEM findings showed that the individual, organizational and accident type factors significantly were considered as effective factors on occupational injuries’ severity (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Path analysis of occupational injuries based on the SEM reveals that individual and organizational factors and their indicator variables are very influential on the severity of traumatic occupational injuries. So, these should be considered to reduce occupational accidents’ severity in large construction industries

Snow-driven uncertainty in CryoSat-2-derived Antarctic sea ice thickness – insights from McMurdo Sound

Knowledge of the snow depth distribution on Antarctic sea ice is poor but is critical to obtaining sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry measurements of the freeboard. We examine the usefulness of various snow products to provide snow depth information over Antarctic fast ice in McMurdo Sound with a focus on a novel approach using a high-resolution numerical snow accumulation model (SnowModel). We compare this model to results from ECMWF ERA-Interim precipitation, EOS Aqua AMSR-E passive microwave snow depths and in situ measurements at the end of the sea ice growth season in 2011. The fast ice was segmented into three areas by fastening date and the onset of snow accumulation was calibrated to these dates. SnowModel captures the spatial snow distribution gradient in McMurdo Sound and falls within 2&thinsp;cm snow water equivalent (s.w.e) of in situ measurements across the entire study area. However, it exhibits deviations of 5&thinsp;cm&thinsp;s.w.e. from these measurements in the east where the effect of local topographic features has caused an overestimate of snow depth in the model. AMSR-E provides s.w.e. values half that of SnowModel for the majority of the sea ice growth season. The coarser-resolution ERA-Interim produces a very high mean s.w.e. value 20&thinsp;cm higher than the in situ measurements. These various snow datasets and in situ information are used to infer sea ice thickness in combination with CryoSat-2 (CS-2) freeboard data. CS-2 is capable of capturing the seasonal trend of sea ice freeboard growth but thickness results are highly dependent on what interface the retracked CS-2 height is assumed to represent. Because of this ambiguity we vary the proportion of ice and snow that represents the freeboard – a mathematical alteration of the radar penetration into the snow cover – and assess this uncertainty in McMurdo Sound. The ranges in sea ice thickness uncertainty within these bounds, as means of the entire growth season, are 1.08, 4.94 and 1.03&thinsp;m for SnowModel, ERA-Interim and AMSR-E respectively. Using an interpolated in situ snow dataset we find the best agreement between CS-2-derived and in situ thickness when this interface is assumed to be 0.07&thinsp;m below the snow surface.</p

Investigation of grapevine areas under climatic stress using high resolution atmospheric modelling: case studies in South Africa and New Zealand

High-resolution atmospheric simulations (500 m) were used to assess viticultural areas under climatic stress in South Africa and New Zealand. The potential areas in which high daytime temperature stress was likely to affect grapevine photosynthesis and grape composition were identified. Results indicated different diurnal temperature variations within the two areas due to synoptic and local environmental factors, often associated with the influence of terrain

Fog type classification using a modified Richardson number for Christchurch, New Zealand

Situated on a coastal plain between the Southern Alps and Banks Peninsula, Christchurch, New Zealand, experiences around 49 fog days every year. Given its complex topography, accurate fog forecasting is difficult at Christchurch International Airport (CHA). Climatological analysis of local fog events is an important first step to gain insight into the processes involved in the fog lifecycle. In this study, fog events were identified using 12 years of meteorological observations from an automatic weather station situated at CHA. A novel fog type classification method was developed using the modified Richardson number (MRi). The MRi fog type classification method assesses the local dynamic stability of a 1.25 m shallow layer of near-surface air. Here, the MRi is used as a quantitative index to classify advection fog, advection–radiation fog, and radiation fog. Vertical gradients of air temperature and wind speed were derived for prefog and fog periods, and a number of criteria were applied to the MRi for the fog type classification. The fog type classification results were examined in correspondence with the derived fog intensity, duration, diurnal and seasonal variability of frequency of occurrences, and synoptic and local wind flows. In agreement with other fog studies across the world, fog occurs most frequently during local winter and spring. Radiation fog is the predominant type of fog identified at CHA, and its formation and development usually coincide with the local drainage northwesterlies. This study is the first to use long-term observational data to investigate the fog climatology and typology at CHA in detail. The fog climatological characteristics presented in this study will serve as the basis of future fog studies in Christchurch. The presented MRi fog type classification method can potentially be used in fog characteristic studies worldwide

Gabapentin for the hemodynamic response to intubation: systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose Endotracheal intubation is the gold standard for securing the airway before surgery. Nevertheless, this procedure can produce an activation of the sympathetic nervous system and result in a hemodynamic response which, in high-risk patients, may lead to cardiovascular instability and myocardial ischemia. The aim of this review was to evaluate whether gabapentin can attenuate this response and whether such an attenuation could translate into reduced myocardial ischemia and mortality. Source We searched MEDLINE®, EMBASE™, CINAHL, AMED, and unpublished clinical trial databases for randomized-controlled trials that compared gabapentin with control, fentanyl, clonidine, or beta blockers for attenuating the hemodynamic response to intubation. Primary outcomes were mortality, myocardial infarction, and myocardial ischemia. Secondary outcomes were hemodynamic changes following intubation. Principal findings We included 29 randomized trials with only two studies at low risk of bias. No data were provided for the primary outcomes and no studies included high-risk patients. The use of gabapentin resulted in attenuation in the rise in mean arterial blood pressure [mean difference (MD), −12 mmHg; 95% confidence interval (CI), −17 to −8] and heart rate (MD, −8 beats·min−1; 95% CI, −11 to −5) one minute after intubation. Gabapentin also reduced the risk of hypertension or tachycardia requiring treatment (risk ratio, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.48). Data were limited on adverse hemodynamic events such as bradycardia and hypotension. Conclusion It remains unknown whether gabapentin improves clinically relevant outcomes such as death and myocardial infarction since studies failed to report on these. Nevertheless, gabapentin attenuated increases in heart rate and blood pressure following intubation when compared with the control group. Even so, the studies included in this review were at potential risk of bias. Moreover, they did not include high-risk patients or report adverse hemodynamic outcomes. Future studies are required to address these limitations

Zilucoplan in immune-mediated necrotising myopathy: a phase 2, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial

BACKGROUND: Immune-mediated necrotising myopathy is an autoimmune myopathy characterised by proximal muscle weakness, high creatine kinase concentrations, and autoantibodies recognising 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) or the signal recognition particle (SRP). No approved therapies exist for people with immune-mediated necrotising myopathy. Previous studies have suggested that complement activation might be pathogenic in immune-mediated necrotising myopathy; therefore, zilucoplan, a complement C5 (C5) inhibitor, could be a potential therapy. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of zilucoplan in adult participants with anti-HMGCR or anti-SRP autoantibody-positive immune-mediated necrotising myopathy. METHODS: IMNM-01 was a phase 2, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study done at 15 hospital sites across the USA, the UK, France, and the Netherlands. Participants aged 18–74 years were eligible for inclusion if they had a clinically confirmed diagnosis of immune-mediated necrotising myopathy, positive serology for anti-HMGCR or anti-SRP autoantibodies, clinical evidence of weakness, serum total creatine kinase concentration of more than 1000 U/L at screening, and no change in glucocorticoids or other immunosuppressive therapies for 30 days before baseline or expected during the first 8 weeks of the study. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive daily subcutaneous zilucoplan (0·3 mg/kg) or placebo for 8 weeks by use of a computerised randomisation algorithm; with optional enrolment in the study open-label extension. Randomisation was stratified by autoantibody status. Participants and study staff were masked to treatment group assignment. Primary efficacy endpoint (in the intent-to-treat population, defined as all participants who were randomly assigned to a treatment group) was percent change from baseline to week 8 in creatine kinase concentrations. Safety analyses were performed on the safety population (participants who received at least one dose of study drug during the main study, irrespective of whether they continued to the extension period—study participants were analysed on the basis of the treatment received). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04025632. FINDINGS: Between Nov 7, 2019, and Jan 7, 2021, we randomly assigned 27 participants (13 female and 14 male) to receive zilucoplan (n=12) or placebo (n=15). All 27 participants completed the 8-week main study. At week 8 there were no significant differences between treatment groups in median percent change of creatine kinase concentrations versus baseline (–15·1% [IQR –31·1 to 3·2] in the zilucoplan group vs –16·3% [–43·8 to 5·9] in the placebo group; p=0·46) and no clinically relevant improvement over time within the treatment group despite target engagement based on mode of action. There were no unexpected adverse safety or tolerability findings. Treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in nine (75%) of 12 participants in the zilucoplan group, and in 13 (87%) of 15 participants in the placebo group, and serious treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in zero participants in the zilucoplan group and three (20%) participants in the placebo group. The most frequent treatment-emergent adverse events were headache (four [33%] participants in the zilucoplan group and four [27%] participants in the placebo group) and nausea (three [25%] participants in the zilucoplan group and three [20%] participants in the placebo group). INTERPRETATION: C5 inhibition does not appear to be an efficacious treatment modality for people with immune-mediated necrotising myopathy. Rather than being the primary driver for disease activity, complement activation might be secondary to muscle injury. FUNDING: Ra Pharmaceuticals (now part of UCB Pharma)

EMQN best practice guidelines for genetic testing in dystrophinopathies.

Dystrophinopathies are X-linked diseases, including Duchenne muscular dystrophy and Becker muscular dystrophy, due to DMD gene variants. In recent years, the application of new genetic technologies and the availability of new personalised drugs have influenced diagnostic genetic testing for dystrophinopathies. Therefore, these European best practice guidelines for genetic testing in dystrophinopathies have been produced to update previous guidelines published in 2010.These guidelines summarise current recommended technologies and methodologies for analysis of the DMD gene, including testing for deletions and duplications of one or more exons, small variant detection and RNA analysis. Genetic testing strategies for diagnosis, carrier testing and prenatal diagnosis (including non-invasive prenatal diagnosis) are then outlined. Guidelines for sequence variant annotation and interpretation are provided, followed by recommendations for reporting results of all categories of testing. Finally, atypical findings (such as non-contiguous deletions and dual DMD variants), implications for personalised medicine and clinical trials and incidental findings (identification of DMD gene variants in patients where a clinical diagnosis of dystrophinopathy has not been considered or suspected) are discussed

The Geomechanics of CO2 Storage in Deep Sedimentary Formations

This paper provides a review of the geomechanics and modeling of geomechanics associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS), focusing on storage in deep sedimentary formations, in particular saline aquifers. The paper first introduces the concept of storage in deep sedimentary formations, the geomechanical processes and issues related with such an operation, and the relevant geomechanical modeling tools. This is followed by a more detailed review of geomechanical aspects, including reservoir stress-strain and microseismicity, well integrity, caprock sealing performance, and the potential for fault reactivation and notable (felt) seismic events. Geomechanical observations at current GCS field deployments, mainly at the In Salah CO2 storage project in Algeria, are also integrated into the review. The In Salah project, with its injection into a relatively thin, low-permeability sandstone is an excellent analogue to the saline aquifers that might be used for large scale GCS in parts of Northwest Europe, the U.S. Midwest, and China. Some of the lessons learned at In Salah related to geomechanics are discussed, including how monitoring of geomechanical responses is used for detecting subsurface geomechanical changes and tracking fluid movements, and how such monitoring and geomechanical analyses have led to preventative changes in the injection parameters. Recently, the importance of geomechanics has become more widely recognized among GCS stakeholders, especially with respect to the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events and how such events could impact the long-term integrity of a CO{sub 2} repository (as well as how it could impact the public perception of GCS). As described in the paper, to date, no notable seismic event has been reported from any of the current CO{sub 2} storage projects, although some unfelt microseismic activities have been detected by geophones. However, potential future commercial GCS operations from large power plants will require injection at a much larger scale. For such largescale injections, a staged, learn-as-you-go approach is recommended, involving a gradual increase of injection rates combined with continuous monitoring of geomechanical changes, as well as siting beneath a multiple layered overburden for multiple flow barrier protection, should an unexpected deep fault reactivation occur

HSE Risk Management Systems Analysis and Modeling its Relationship with Occupational Accidents in the Construction Industry

Introduction:Risk of occupational accidents in construction industry and sites is very high and dangerous. The establishment of an effective and efficient risk management system is an important step in prevention of construction accidents. The purpose of this study was to analyze the HSE risk management systems in large construction sites and their association with the occupational accidents. Methods: This study was an analytical cross-sectional review that analysis the risk management system and its relation to the accidents of 88-92 years that has been occurred in the construction large sites. Study data includes information about the all HSE risk management systems and human accidents that occurred within 5 years in the various construction sites. Data collection was performed according to the accident report form in construction sites. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software version 16. The level of significance in this study was considered as p=0.05. Results: The mean accident severity rate (ASR) was 1.51&times;103&plusmn;1.05&times;104. The results showed that,risk management system has been established in 18.4% of the studied sites, and the share of the risk management system components and indicators including hazard identification, periodic risk assessment and the implementation of control procedures which was estimated&nbsp; 16.4%, 16.6% and 10.2% respectively.In addition, all indicators of risk management were significantly associated with ASR (p<0.05). Conclusion:ASR Regression analysis based on the risk management Indicators, &nbsp;showed that demographic and job parameters such as work experience and career type, as well as, risk management indicators such as the risk management system establishment,HAZID, periodic risk assessment, HSE training and Housekeeping have been significant associated with accidents consequence severity in the construction industry