A robust and parsimonious regional disaggregation method for deriving hourly rainfall intensities for the UK

International audienceA regional rainfall disaggregation method from daily to hourly intensities is presented for the entire UK, which was developed for use with regionalised hydrological and water quality models. The approach is based on the inter-dependence of the hourly rainfall intensities during a rainfall event. The analysis of 23 229 days with at least 15 mm of precipitation from 238 weather stations throughout the UK allowed regional parameters for climatically homogeneous regions of the UK to be derived for each season. The method reproduces well the main statistical characteristics of the data (mean, minimum and maximum intensity and standard deviation). The method is fully operational, computationally efficient and can be applied to any location throughout the UK

Development and application of a catchment scale pesticide fate and transport model for use in drinking water risk assessment

This paper describes the development and application of IMPT (Integrated Model for Pesticide Transport), a parameter-efficient tool for predicting diffuse-source pesticide concentrations in surface waters used for drinking water supply. The model was applied to a small UK headwater catchment with high frequency (8 h) pesticide monitoring data and to five larger catchments (479–1653 km2) with sampling approximately every 14 days. Model performance was good for predictions of both flow (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency generally > 0.59 and PBIAS < 10%) and pesticide concentrations, although low sampling frequency in the larger catchments is likely to mask the true episodic nature of exposure. The computational efficiency of the model, along with the fact that most of its parameters can be derived from existing national soil property data mean that it can be used to rapidly predict pesticide exposure in multiple surface water resources to support operational and strategic risk assessments

The Short Rotation Period of Nereid

We determine the period, p = 11.52 \pm 0.14 h, and a light curve peak-to-peak amplitude, a = 0.029 \pm 0.003 magnitudes, of the Neptunian irregular satellite Nereid. If the light curve variation is due to albedo variations across the surface, rather than solely to the shape of Nereid variations, the rotation period would be a factor of two shorter. In either case, such a rotation period and light curve amplitude, together with Nereid's orbital period, p=360.14 days, imply that Nereid is almost certainly in a regular rotation state, rather than the chaotic rotation state suggested by Schaefer and Schaefer (1988,2000) and Dobrovolskis (1995). Assuming that Nereid is perfectly spherical, the albedo variation is 3% across the observed surface. Assuming a uniform geometric albedo, the observed cross sectional area varies by 3%. We caution that the lightcurve found in this paper only sets limits on the combination of albedo and physical irregularity and that we cannot determine the orientation of Nereid's spin axis from our data.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letters, 11 pages (incl. 1 figure

Author\u27s Guide for University of Nebraska Experiment Station Publications

Publication of findings of the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station staff is an important part of the work the Station is doing for Nebraska. Since staff members usually are researchers first and authors by necessity, they often seek assistance in preparing their findings for publication. This manual presents a concise guide for publication preparation

The effect of wave-particle interactions on low energy cutoffs in solar flare electron spectra

Solar flare hard X-ray spectra from RHESSI are normally interpreted in terms of purely collisional electron beam propagation, ignoring spatial evolution and collective effects. In this paper we present self-consistent numerical simulations of the spatial and temporal evolution of an electron beam subject to collisional transport and beam-driven Langmuir wave turbulence. These wave-particle interactions represent the background plasma's response to the electron beam propagating from the corona to chromosphere and occur on a far faster timescale than coulomb collisions. From these simulations we derive the mean electron flux spectrum, comparable to such spectra recovered from high resolution hard X-rays observations of solar flares with RHESSI. We find that a negative spectral index (i.e. a spectrum that increases with energy), or local minima when including the expected thermal spectral component at low energies, occurs in the standard thick-target model, when coulomb collisions are only considered. The inclusion of wave-particle interactions does not produce a local minimum, maintaining a positive spectral index. These simulations are a step towards a more complete treatment of electron transport in solar flares and suggest that a flat spectrum (spectral index of 0 to 1) down to thermal energies maybe a better approximation instead of a sharp cut-off in the injected electron spectrum.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, accepted by ApJ

A transit timing analysis of nine RISE light curves of the exoplanet system TrES-3

We present nine newly observed transits of TrES-3, taken as part of a transit timing program using the RISE instrument on the Liverpool Telescope. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo analysis was used to determine the planet-star radius ratio and inclination of the system, which were found to be Rp/Rstar=0.1664^{+0.0011}_{-0.0018} and i = 81.73^{+0.13}_{-0.04} respectively, consistent with previous results. The central transit times and uncertainties were also calculated, using a residual-permutation algorithm as an independent check on the errors. A re-analysis of eight previously published TrES-3 light curves was conducted to determine the transit times and uncertainties using consistent techniques. Whilst the transit times were not found to be in agreement with a linear ephemeris, giving chi^2 = 35.07 for 15 degrees of freedom, we interpret this to be the result of systematics in the light curves rather than a real transit timing variation. This is because the light curves that show the largest deviation from a constant period either have relatively little out-of-transit coverage, or have clear systematics. A new ephemeris was calculated using the transit times, and was found to be T_c(0) = 2454632.62610 +- 0.00006 HJD and P = 1.3061864 +- 0.0000005 days. The transit times were then used to place upper mass limits as a function of the period ratio of a potential perturbing planet, showing that our data are sufficiently sensitive to have probed for sub-Earth mass planets in both interior and exterior 2:1 resonances, assuming the additional planet is in an initially circular orbit.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

Detection of transit timing variations in excess of one hour in the Kepler multi-planet candidate system KOI 806 with the GTC

We report the detection of transit timing variations (TTVs) well in excess of one hour in the Kepler multi-planet candidate system KOI 806. This system exhibits transits consistent with three separate planets -- a Super-Earth, a Jupiter, and a Saturn -- lying very nearly in a 1:2:5 resonance, respectively. We used the Kepler public data archive and observations with the Gran Telescopio de Canarias to compile the necessary photometry. For the largest candidate planet (KOI 806.02) in this system, we detected a large transit timing variation of -103.5$\pm$6.9 minutes against previously published ephemeris. We did not obtain a strong detection of a transit color signature consistent with a planet-sized object; however, we did not detect a color difference in transit depth, either. The large TTV is consistent with theoretical predictions that exoplanets in resonance can produce large transit timing variations, particularly if the orbits are eccentric. The presence of large TTVs among the bodies in this systems indicates that KOI806 is very likely to be a planetary system. This is supported by the lack of a strong color dependence in the transit depth, which would suggest a blended eclipsing binary.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted into A&A Letter

Holographic Non-Gaussianity

We investigate the non-Gaussianity of primordial cosmological perturbations within our recently proposed holographic description of inflationary universes. We derive a holographic formula that determines the bispectrum of cosmological curvature perturbations in terms of correlation functions of a holographically dual three-dimensional non-gravitational quantum field theory (QFT). This allows us to compute the primordial bispectrum for a universe which started in a non-geometric holographic phase, using perturbative QFT calculations. Strikingly, for a class of models specified by a three-dimensional super-renormalisable QFT, the primordial bispectrum is of exactly the factorisable equilateral form with f_nl^eq=5/36, irrespective of the details of the dual QFT. A by-product of this investigation is a holographic formula for the three-point function of the trace of the stress-energy tensor along general holographic RG flows, which should have applications outside the remit of this work.Comment: 42 pages, 2 figs, published versio

A probabilistic risk assessment of the national economic impacts of regulatory drought management on irrigated agriculture

Drought frequency and intensity is expected to increase in many regions worldwide, and water shortages could become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, water abstraction for irrigation can be mandatorily reduced by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a novel approach for the probabilistic risk assessment of potential future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with an application to England and Wales. Hydro‐meteorological variability is considered within a synthetic dataset of daily rainfall and river flows for a baseline period (1977‐2004), and for projections for near (2022‐2049) and far (2072‐2099) futures. The probability, magnitude and timing of abstraction restrictions are derived by applying rainfall and river flow triggers in 129 catchments. The risk of economic losses at the catchment level is then obtained from the occurrences of abstraction restrictions combined with spatially distributed crop‐specific economic losses. Results show that restrictions will become more severe, frequent and longer in the future. The highest economic risks are projected where drought‐sensitive crops with a high financial value are concentrated in catchments with increasingly uncertain water supply. This research highlights the significant economic losses associated with mandatory drought restrictions experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental regulators and irrigators to collaboratively manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations

Enhanced Non-Gaussianity from Excited Initial States

We use the techniques of effective field theory in an expanding universe to examine the effect of choosing an excited inflationary initial state built over the Bunch-Davies state on the CMB bi-spectrum. We find that even for Hadamard states, there are unexpected enhancements in the bi-spectrum for certain configurations in momentum space due to interactions of modes in the early stages of inflation. These enhancements can be parametrically larger than the standard ones and are potentially observable in current and future data. These initial state effects have a characteristic signature in $l$-space which distinguishes them from the usual contributions, with the enhancement being most pronounced for configurations corresponding to flattened triangles for which two momenta are collinear.Comment: 33 pages, 1 figure. Refs added and minor addition