A roadmap to climate data rescue services

Quantitative approaches to climate risk management such as mapping or impact modelling rely on past meteorological data with daily or sub‐daily resolution, a large fraction of which have not yet been digitized. Over the last decade or so, a number of projects have contributed to the rescue of some of these data. Here we provide a summary of a survey we have undertaken of several meteorological and climate data rescue projects, in order to identify the needs of climate data rescue services. To make these efforts more sustainable, additional integrated activities are needed. We argue that meteorological and climate data rescue must be seen as a continuous, coordinated long‐term effort. Technical developments (e.g. data assimilation), new scientific questions (e.g. process understanding of extreme events) and new social (e.g. risk assessment, health) or economic (e.g. new renewable energy sources, agriculture and forestry, tourism, infrastructure, etc.) services are highlighting the immense value of data previously neglected or never considered. This continuous effort is currently undertaken by projects of various sizes, structure, funding and staffing, as well as by dedicated programmes, ranging from those within many national weather services down to “grassroots” initiatives. These activities are often not sufficiently coordinated, staffed, or funded at an international level and will benefit considerably from climate data rescue services being established within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (https://climate.copernicus.eu/)

The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models

Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios in terms of both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (iii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree regarding whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision-making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.ISSN:2190-4987ISSN:2190-497

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a future weather scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the Pi–Td relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The Pi–Td method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.</p

Ambient-aware continuous care through semantic context dissemination

Background: The ultimate ambient-intelligent care room contains numerous sensors and devices to monitor the patient, sense and adjust the environment and support the staff. This sensor-based approach results in a large amount of data, which can be processed by current and future applications, e. g., task management and alerting systems. Today, nurses are responsible for coordinating all these applications and supplied information, which reduces the added value and slows down the adoption rate. The aim of the presented research is the design of a pervasive and scalable framework that is able to optimize continuous care processes by intelligently reasoning on the large amount of heterogeneous care data. Methods: The developed Ontology-based Care Platform (OCarePlatform) consists of modular components that perform a specific reasoning task. Consequently, they can easily be replicated and distributed. Complex reasoning is achieved by combining the results of different components. To ensure that the components only receive information, which is of interest to them at that time, they are able to dynamically generate and register filter rules with a Semantic Communication Bus (SCB). This SCB semantically filters all the heterogeneous care data according to the registered rules by using a continuous care ontology. The SCB can be distributed and a cache can be employed to ensure scalability. Results: A prototype implementation is presented consisting of a new-generation nurse call system supported by a localization and a home automation component. The amount of data that is filtered and the performance of the SCB are evaluated by testing the prototype in a living lab. The delay introduced by processing the filter rules is negligible when 10 or fewer rules are registered. Conclusions: The OCarePlatform allows disseminating relevant care data for the different applications and additionally supports composing complex applications from a set of smaller independent components. This way, the platform significantly reduces the amount of information that needs to be processed by the nurses. The delay resulting from processing the filter rules is linear in the amount of rules. Distributed deployment of the SCB and using a cache allows further improvement of these performance results

Elevated neutrophil and monocyte counts in peripheral blood are associated with poor survival in patients with metastatic melanoma: a prognostic model

We aimed to create a prognostic model in metastatic melanoma based on independent prognostic factors in 321 patients receiving interleukin-2 (IL-2)-based immunotherapy with a median follow-up time for patients currently alive of 52 months (range 15–189 months). The patients were treated as part of several phase II protocols and the majority received treatment with intermediate dose subcutaneous IL-2 and interferon-α. Neutrophil and monocyte counts, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), number of metastatic sites, location of metastases and performance status were all statistically significant prognostic factors in univariate analyses. Subsequently, a multivariate Cox's regression analysis identified elevated LDH (P<0.001, hazard ratio 2.8), elevated neutrophil counts (P=0.02, hazard ratio 1.4) and a performance status of 2 (P=0.008, hazard ratio 1.6) as independent prognostic factors for poor survival. An elevated monocyte count could replace an elevated neutrophil count. Patients were assigned to one of three risk groups according to the cumulative risk defined as the sum of simplified risk scores of the three independent prognostic factors. Low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients achieved a median survival of 12.6 months (95% confidence interval (CI), 11.4–13.8), 6.0 months (95% CI, 4.8–7.2) and 3.4 months (95% CI, 1.2–5.6), respectively. The low-risk group encompassed the majority of long-term survivors, whereas the patients in the high-risk group with a very poor prognosis should probably not be offered IL-2-based immunotherapy

Transoral laser microsurgery for laryngeal cancer: A primer and review of laser dosimetry

Transoral laser microsurgery (TLM) is an emerging technique for the management of laryngeal and other head and neck malignancies. It is increasingly being used in place of traditional open surgery because of lower morbidity and improved organ preservation. Since the surgery is performed from the inside working outward as opposed to working from the outside in, there is less damage to the supporting structures that lie external to the tumor. Coupling the laser to a micromanipulator and a microscope allows precise tissue cutting and hemostasis; thereby improving visualization and precise ablation. The basic approach and principles of performing TLM, the devices currently in use, and the associated dosimetry parameters will be discussed. The benefits of using TLM over conventional surgery, common complications and the different settings used depending on the location of the tumor will also be discussed. Although the CO2 laser is the most versatile and the best-suited laser for TLM applications, a variety of lasers and different parameters are used in the treatment of laryngeal cancer. Improved instrumentation has lead to an increased utilization of TLM by head and neck cancer surgeons and has resulted in improved outcomes. Laser energy levels and spot size are adjusted to vary the precision of cutting and amount of hemostasis obtained

The NOMAD experiment at the CERN SPS

The NOMAD experiment is a short base-line search for $\nu_{\mu}\rightarrow \nu_{\tau}$ oscillations in the CERN neutrino beam. The $\nu_{\tau}$'s are searched for through their charged-current interactions followed by the observation of the resulting $\tau^{-}$ through its electronic, muonic or hadronic decays. These decays are recognized using kinematical criteria necessitating the use of a light target which enables the reconstruction of individual particles produced in the neutrino interactions. This paper describes the various components of the NOMAD detector: the target and muon drift chambers, the electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters, the preshower and transition radiation detectors, and the veto and trigger scintillation counters. The beam and data acquisition system are also described. The quality of the reconstruction of individual particles is demonstrated through the ability of NOMAD to observe K$^0_{\rm s}$'s, $\Lambda^0$'s and $\pi^0$'s. Finally, the observation of $\tau^{-}$ through its electronic decay being one of the most promising channels in the search, the identification of electrons in NOMAD is discussed