Strategy of protection against hazardous channel and hydrological processes in rivers of developed territories and territories with focal development

In 2012-2015, the Makkaveev Research Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Fluvial Processes of MSU, Department of Geography, carried out a research, including analysis of hydrological and channel regimes of the Tom river in the Kuznetsk basin (Kuzbass) and the Katun river up to Uimonsky (the Altai), intra-mountain drainage basins, the survey of floodplains and eroded banks, and modelling of floods occurring in floodplains. As a result, a concept has been developed to improve protection measures against hazardous hydrological and channel processes. More than 200 engineering and organisational events were suggested as part of the concept. Given the dense network of river banks and the high potential damage caused by floods in Kuzbass, the continuous protection of cities, large residential and commercial areas, as well as sections of roads and railways subject to erosion is a priority in the flood control concept. In the case of the Katun river basin, characterized by local development, low population density, and relatively small damage caused by floods, the emphasis is put on organisational measures: prevention, evacuation of people and property, insurance and compensation. Selective engineering structures should, as a matter of priority, reduce the dangerous erosion of river banks and ensure a high level of protection of the territory against floods

Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of internal atmospheric variability is most visible over spatio-temporal scales of water management in large river basins. Internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. Ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of bias-corrected ECHAM5 outputs and ensemble averaged ECHAM5 output are used as a distributed input for the ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the standard deviation of annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as annual runoff trend, are assessed. Uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that uncertainty of the mean and the standard deviation of runoff has a significant seasonal dependence on the maximum during the periods of spring–summer snowmelt and summer–autumn rainfall floods. Noticeable nonlinearity of the hydrological models' results in the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvina River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters the stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. Simulated discharge trends are close to normally distributed around the ensemble mean value, which fits well to empirical estimates and, for the Lena River, indicates that a considerable portion of the observed trend can be externally driven

Economic Diagnostics of Territorial Development: National Dimension and Experience of EU Countries

The study is devoted to the theoretical and applied organizational bases for substantiation of indicators and indicators for assessing the competitiveness of transformation processes in the regions. The main purpose of the article is the process of conducting a competitive analysis of the effectiveness of transformation processes in the regions of Ukraine. The article tests the authors' hypothesis on certain indicators for assessing the competitiveness of transformation processes in the region, as well as using them to study the main trends in the regional operating system in dynamics, which is an important step for strategic decisions in the context of competitiveness. The dependence of the calculations on the multicriteria analysis of the competitiveness of the regions on the principle of the process approach showed that each region of Ukraine has its competitive advantages and disadvantages, which must be taken into account when formulating regional development strategies. The results of the study can be used as an information basis for further prospective research to develop recommendations for optimizing business processes in the regions to increase their competitiveness, and the proposed methodological approaches can be used to assess the competitiveness of local operating systems, including at the local level to determine their investment attractiveness and optimize individual business processes or their components

Прогнозування основних показників діяльності страхових компаній

Econometric and adaptive models make it possible to predict financial and economic indicators in the short and long term. The most common forecasting models are linear trend models, adaptive Brown, Holt, Holt-Winters, BoxJenkins, autoregressive and other models. It has been proved that the use of adaptive forecasting models becomes especially relevant in the context of constant changes in the external environment, instability of the economic and political situation. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to substantiate the expediency of using forecasting methods when planning the development of the insurance market and to implement the procedure for forecasting the main indicators of its development using modern methods and techniques. Results. Improving the efficiency of the insurance market is facilitated by the correct organization of its planning and the direct implementation of the planned indicators. Optimality of planning is determined by the degree to which the accuracy of the predicted level of planned indicators is achieved. The methodology and results of the forecast of insurance payments made for the near future can be taken as a basis for drawing up current and strategic plans of insurance companies. Conclusions. It has been established that one of the barriers to the effective development of the insurance market in general and insurance companies in particular is the insufficient level of planning of their activities, especially in terms of forecasting key indicators. The procedure for forecasting the receipt of insurance payments was implemented using modern forecasting methods. The effectiveness of the Brown's adaptive model for short-term planning of insurance premiums is proved. The proposed model was tested for adequacy, on its basis, recommendations were developed for further application in the practice of insurance companies.У процесі людської діяльності в фінансово-економічному просторі є певні ризики. З метою їх мінімізації приймається рішення щодо диверсифікації ризику або використання механізмів страхування. Страхування – це ефективний інструмент для зменшення невизначеності однієї сторони, яку називають страхувальником, шляхом передачі особливих ризиків іншій стороні, яку називають страховиком, і яка пропонує відновлення, принаймні частково, економічних збитків, що зазнав страхувальник. Виявлено, що через низький рівень довіри населення до ринку страхування загалом та страхових компаній зокрема, через відсутність знань у галузі страхування, попит на страхові послуги в Україні є достатньо низьким. Доведено, що в умовах мінливості зовнішнього середовища в складній соціально-економічній та політичній ситуації в країні ефективність розвитку страхового ринку залежить від оптимальної моделі його планування. Об’єктами планування можуть виступати основні статистичні показники діяльності страхових компаній: валові страхові платежі, валові страхові виплати, страхові платежі, сплачені на перестрахування, загальні активи страхових компаній, власний капітал, грошові кошти, обсяги сформованих страхових резервів, довгострокові фінансові інвестиції, поточні фінансові інвестиції тощо. Обґрунтовано, що правильна організація планування та виконання планів забезпечують досягнення страховими компаніями цілей і задач розвитку. Результативність панування досягається за рахунок точності прогнозного рівня планованих показників. У статті досліджено окремі аспекти прогнозування основних показників діяльності страхових компаній. Розкрито сутьність методів та прийомів прогнозування і визначено їх роль у діяльності страхових компаній. Методологічної основою дослідження обрано економетричні методи та методи екстраполяції тенденцій. В якості прийомів прогнозування використано економетричні лінійні моделі та базові адаптивні моделі. Визначено переваги застосування у практичній діяльності розглянутих методів прогнозування. Запропоновані моделі протестовані на адекватність та зроблені висновки щодо можливості їх застосування у практиці планування обсягів надходжень страхових платежів страхових компаній України

ОСОБЕННОСТИ ДЕГРАДАЦИИ СТРУКТУРЫ И МЕХАНИЧЕСКИЕ СВОЙСТВА ЭЛЕМЕНТОВ ПЕЧНОГО И ТЕПЛОЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО ОБОРУДОВАНИЯ ПОСЛЕ ДЛИТЕЛЬНОЙ ЭКСПЛУАТАЦИИ

The paper presents results of investigations on structure and mechanical properties of technological equipment elements made of heat-resistant steels. A scale of chrome and molybdenum steel microstructure degradation based on evaluation of  coagulated carbide size and material mechanical properties (a point from 0-operation without time limits, up to 4-operation prohibition) has been proposed in the paper. It has been  established that an analysis of  steel microstructure directly on equipment elements by means of a portable microscope is an efficient express method for evaluation of equipment condition and structures due to control of material structure degradation rate of a diagnosed object.Представлены результаты исследований структуры и механических свойств элементов технологического оборудования, изготовленных из теплоустойчивых сталей. Предложена шкала деградации микроструктуры хромомолибденовых сталей, основанная на оценке размера коагулированных карбидов и механических свойствах материала (балл от 0 – эксплуатация без ограничений по времени, до 4 – запрещение эксплуатации). Установлено, что анализ микроструктуры сталей непосредственно на элементах оборудования с помощью переносного микроскопа является эффективным экспресс-методом оценки состояния оборудования и конструкций за счет контроля степени деградации структуры материала диагностируемого объекта.

Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions

Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood modelling for populated valley areas of Russian rivers

Results of flood modelling for three cities located in different parts of Russia: (1) Veliky Ustyug at the Northern Dvina river (Europe); (2) Mezhdurechensk at the Tom river (Siberia); and (3) Blagoveschensk at the Amur river (Far East) are presented. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow in channels and on floodplain STREAM_2D on the basis of the numerical solution of two-dimensional Saint–Venant equations on a hybrid curvilinear quadrangular and rectangular mesh was used for the simulations. Verification of the model through a comparison of simulated inundated areas with outlines of flooded zones from satellite images for known hydrologic situations demonstrate close correspondence (relative errors of 7–12% in terms of the area for peaks of the analysed floods). Analyses of embankment influence of large-scale levees on the water flow demonstrate that, in some cases, water levels could rise by more than 1 m and the patterns of the flooding zones could significantly differ

SPECIFIC DEGRADATION STRUCTURE FEATURES AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF FURNACE AND HEAT POWER EQUIPMENT ELEMENTS AFTER LONG-TERM OPERATION

The paper presents results of investigations on structure and mechanical properties of technological equipment elements made of heat-resistant steels. A scale of chrome and molybdenum steel microstructure degradation based on evaluation of  coagulated carbide size and material mechanical properties (a point from 0-operation without time limits, up to 4-operation prohibition) has been proposed in the paper. It has been  established that an analysis of  steel microstructure directly on equipment elements by means of a portable microscope is an efficient express method for evaluation of equipment condition and structures due to control of material structure degradation rate of a diagnosed object