Increased vertical resolution in the stratosphere reveals role of gravity waves after sudden stratospheric warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have a long-lasting effect within the stratosphere as well as impacts on the underlying troposphere. However, sub-seasonal forecasts of the winter polar stratosphere fail to use their full potential for predictability as they tend to underestimate the magnitude and persistence of these events already within the stratosphere. The origin of this underestimation is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the associated polar stratospheric cold bias following SSW events in sub-seasonal hindcasts can be halved by increasing vertical model resolution, suggesting a potential sensitivity to gravity wave forcing. While the predictability of the planetary Rossby wave flux into the stratosphere at lead times longer than a week is limited, the existence of a critical layer for gravity waves with a low zonal phase speed caused by the disturbed polar vortex provides predictability to the upper stratosphere. Gravity wave breaking near that critical layer can, therefore, decelerate the zonal flow consistently with anomalous subsidence over the polar cap leading to warmer temperatures in the middle polar stratosphere. Since the spectrum of gravity waves involves vertical wavelengths of less than 4000 m, as estimated by wavelet analysis, a high vertical model resolution is needed to resolve the positive feedback between gravity wave forcing and the state of the polar vortex. Specifically, we find that at a spectral resolution of TCo639 (approximate horizontal grid spacing of 18 km) at least 198 levels are needed to correctly resolve the spectrum of gravity waves in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Increasing vertical resolution in operational forecasts will help to mitigate stratospheric temperature biases and improve sub-seasonal predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex

Increased vertical resolution in the stratosphere reveals role of gravity waves after sudden stratospheric warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have a long-lasting effect within the stratosphere as well as impacts on the underlying troposphere. However, sub-seasonal forecasts of the winter polar stratosphere fail to use their full potential for predictability as they tend to underestimate the magnitude and persistence of these events already within the stratosphere. The origin of this underestimation is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the associated polar stratospheric cold bias following SSW events in sub-seasonal hindcasts can be halved by increasing vertical model resolution, suggesting a potential sensitivity to gravity wave forcing. While the predictability of the planetary Rossby wave flux into the stratosphere at lead times longer than a week is limited, the existence of a critical layer for gravity waves with a low zonal phase speed caused by the disturbed polar vortex provides predictability to the upper stratosphere. Gravity wave breaking near that critical layer can, therefore, decelerate the zonal flow consistently with anomalous subsidence over the polar cap leading to warmer temperatures in the middle polar stratosphere. Since the spectrum of gravity waves involves vertical wavelengths of less than 4000 m, as estimated by wavelet analysis, a high vertical model resolution is needed to resolve the positive feedback between gravity wave forcing and the state of the polar vortex. Specifically, we find that at a spectral resolution of TCo639 (approximate horizontal grid spacing of 18 km) at least 198 levels are needed to correctly resolve the spectrum of gravity waves in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Increasing vertical resolution in operational forecasts will help to mitigate stratospheric temperature biases and improve sub-seasonal predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex.</p

Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer

Several recent studies have suggested that the stratosphere can be a source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of Southern Hemisphere circulation during the austral spring and early summer seasons, through its influence on the eddy-driven jet. We exploit the large sample size afforded by the hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System to address a number of unanswered questions. It is shown that the picture of coherent seasonal variability of the coupled stratosphere-troposphere system apparent from the reanalysis record during the spring/early summer period is robust to sampling uncertainty, and that there is evidence of nonlinearity in the case of the most extreme variations. The effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the eddy-driven jet during this time of year is found to occur via the stratosphere, with no evidence of a direct tropospheric pathway. A simple two-state statistical model of the stratospheric vortex is introduced to estimate the subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability associated with shifts of the seasonal cycle in the SH extratropical atmosphere. This simple model, along with a more general model, are subsequently used to interpret skill scores associated with hindcasts made using the full seasonal forecast model. Together the results provide evidence of tropospheric predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales from at least as early as August 1, and show no evidence of a `signal-to-noise paradox' between the full seasonal forecast model and the reanalysis

Report on Stratosphere Task Force

Recognising the importance of the stratosphere for skilful seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction, the Stratosphere Task Force was set up in 2016 to improve the representation of the stratosphere in ECMWF forecast and analysis systems. This report synthesizes the most notable findings of the Task Force and provides recommendations for the way forward. The main focus is on: 1) Global-mean temperature biases; 2) Horizontal resolution sensitivity of the mid- to lower stratospheric temperatures; 3) Stratospheric meridional circulation and polar vortex variability; 4) Extratropical lower stratospheric cold temperature bias; 5) New sponge design; and, 6) Representation of tropical winds

Sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and polar vortex variability to parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag in a high-resolution atmospheric model

The role of parametrized nonorographic gravity wave drag (NOGWD) and its seasonal interaction with the resolved wave drag in the stratosphere has been extensively studied in low-resolution (coarser than 1.9 x 2.5 degrees) climate models but is comparatively unexplored in higher-resolution models. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System at 0.7 x 0.7 degrees resolution, the wave drivers of the Brewer-Dobson circulation are diagnosed and the circulation sensitivity to the NOGW launch flux is explored. NOGWs are found to account for nearly 20% of the lower stratospheric Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar cap downwelling and for less than 10% of the lower-stratospheric tropical upwelling and Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar cap downwelling. Despite these relatively small numbers, there are complex interactions between NOGWD and resolved wave drag, in both polar regions. Seasonal cycle analysis reveals a temporal offset in the resolved and parametrized wave interaction: The NOGWD response to altered source fluxes is largest in mid-winter, while the resolved wave response is largest in the late winter and spring. This temporal offset is especially prominent in the SH. The impact of NOGWD on sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) life-cycles and the final warming date in the SH is also investigated. An increase in NOGWD leads to an increase in SSW frequency, reduction in amplitude and persistence, and an earlier recovery of the stratopause following a SSW event. The SH final warming date is also brought forward when NOGWD is increased. Thus, NOGWD is still found to be a very important parameterization for stratospheric dynamics even in a high-resolution atmospheric model

Sensitivity and variability redux in hot-Jupiter flow simulations

We revisit the issue of sensitivity to initial flow and intrinsic variability in hot-Jupiter atmospheric flow simulations, originally investigated by Cho et al. (2008) and Thrastarson & Cho (2010). The flow in the lower region (~1 to 20 MPa) `dragged' to immobility and uniform temperature on a very short timescale, as in Liu & Showman (2013), leads to effectively a complete cessation of variability as well as sensitivity in three-dimensional (3D) simulations with traditional primitive equations. Such momentum (Rayleigh) and thermal (Newtonian) drags are, however, ad hoc for 3D giant planet simulations. For 3D hot-Jupiter simulations, which typically already employ strong Newtonian drag in the upper region, sensitivity is not quenched if only the Newtonian drag is applied in the lower region, without the strong Rayleigh drag: in general, both sensitivity and variability persist if the two drags are not applied concurrently in the lower region. However, even when the drags are applied concurrently, vertically-propagating planetary waves give rise to significant variability in the ~0.05 to 0.5 MPa region, if the vertical resolution of the lower region is increased (e.g. here with 1000 layers for the entire domain). New observations on the effects of the physical setup and model convergence in ‘deep’ atmosphere simulations are also presented

Increased vertical resolution in the stratosphere reveals role of gravity waves after sudden stratospheric warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have a long-lasting effect within the stratosphere as well as impacts on the underlying troposphere. However, sub-seasonal forecasts of the winter polar stratosphere fail to use their full potential for predictability as they tend to underestimate the magnitude and persistence of these events already within the stratosphere. The origin of this underestimation is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the associated polar stratospheric cold bias following SSW events in sub-seasonal hindcasts can be halved by increasing vertical model resolution, suggesting a potential sensitivity to gravity wave forcing. While the predictability of the planetary Rossby wave flux into the stratosphere at lead times longer than a week is limited, the existence of a critical layer for gravity waves with a low zonal phase speed caused by the disturbed polar vortex provides predictability to the upper stratosphere. Gravity wave breaking near that critical layer can, therefore, decelerate the zonal flow consistently with anomalous subsidence over the polar cap leading to warmer temperatures in the middle polar stratosphere. Since the spectrum of gravity waves involves vertical wavelengths of less than 4000 m, as estimated by wavelet analysis, a high vertical model resolution is needed to resolve the positive feedback between gravity wave forcing and the state of the polar vortex. Specifically, we find that at a spectral resolution of TCo639 (approximate horizontal grid spacing of 18 km) at least 198 levels are needed to correctly resolve the spectrum of gravity waves in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Increasing vertical resolution in operational forecasts will help to mitigate stratospheric temperature biases and improve sub-seasonal predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex.</p

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst

Methane in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Neptune GJ436b?

We present an analysis of seven primary transit observations of the hot Neptune GJ436b at 3.6, 4.5 and $8~\mu$m obtained with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) on the Spitzer Space Telescope. After correcting for systematic effects, we fitted the light curves using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Combining these new data with the EPOXI, HST and ground-based $V, I, H$ and $K_s$ published observations, the range $0.5-10~\mu$m can be covered. Due to the low level of activity of GJ436, the effect of starspots on the combination of transits at different epochs is negligible at the accuracy of the dataset. Representative climate models were calculated by using a three-dimensional, pseudo-spectral general circulation model with idealised thermal forcing. Simulated transit spectra of GJ436b were generated using line-by-line radiative transfer models including the opacities of the molecular species expected to be present in such a planetary atmosphere. A new, ab-initio calculated, linelist for hot ammonia has been used for the first time. The photometric data observed at multiple wavelengths can be interpreted with methane being the dominant absorption after molecular hydrogen, possibly with minor contributions from ammonia, water and other molecules. No clear evidence of carbon monoxide and dioxide is found from transit photometry. We discuss this result in the light of a recent paper where photochemical disequilibrium is hypothesised to interpret secondary transit photometric data. We show that the emission photometric data are not incompatible with the presence of abundant methane, but further spectroscopic data are desirable to confirm this scenario.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, Astrophysical Journal in pres

Atmospheric super-rotation in solar system and extra-solar planetary atmospheres

Super-rotation is a common phenomenon in solar system planetary atmospheres. Out of the four substantial atmospheres possessed by solid bodies in the solar system, the slowly rotating planet, Venus, and moon, Titan, are both well-known to have atmospheres that rotate on average substantially more quickly than does the solid surface underneath. The more rapidly rotating planets, Mars and Earth, have much weaker global super-rotation, but both can exhibit time-varying prograde jets near the equator which rotate more rapidly than the local surface. Atmospheric super-rotation is not restricted to planets with solid surfaces and shallow atmospheres. Cloud-tracking observations of the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn show that they both possess rapid prograde equatorial jets and hence exhibit local super-rotation. Simplified global circulation models of extra-solar planets, including representations of ‘hot Jupiters’ and Earth-like planets rotating at different rates, can also show sustained super-rotating equatorial jets in different dynamical regimes. In the extra-solar planet cases in particular, the quantitative results are highly sensitive to model parameters. In each case the detailed mechanism, or combination of mechanisms, which produces the super-rotating jets might vary, but all require longitudinally asymmetric motions, waves or eddies, to transport angular momentum up-gradient into the jets. The mechanism is not always easy to diagnose from observations and requires careful modelling. We review both observations of solar system planets and recent global circulation model results, combined in the case of Mars and Earth in the form of atmospheric reanalyses by data assimilation, together with simplified extra-solar planet simulations