6,058 research outputs found
On Identifying and Mitigating Bias in the Estimation of the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate
The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key
measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical
resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an
active outbreak when surveillance data is the primary source of information,
estimating these quantities involves compensating for competing biases in time
series of deaths, cases, and recoveries. These include time- and severity-
dependent reporting of cases as well as time lags in observed patient outcomes.
In the context of COVID-19 CFR estimation, we survey such biases and their
potential significance. Further, we analyze theoretically the effect of certain
biases, like preferential reporting of fatal cases, on naive estimators of CFR.
We provide a partially corrected estimator of these naive estimates that
accounts for time lag and imperfect reporting of deaths and recoveries. We show
that collection of randomized data by testing the contacts of infectious
individuals regardless of the presence of symptoms would mitigate bias by
limiting the covariance between diagnosis and death. Our analysis is
supplemented by theoretical and numerical results and a simple and fast
open-source codebase at https://github.com/aangelopoulos/cfr-covid-19 .Comment: Harvard Data Science Review (2020) article available at
https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/y9vc2u3
Radar Cross Section Studies/Compact Range Research
A summary is given of the achievements of NASA Grant NsG-1613 by Ohio State University from May 1, 1987 to April 30, 1988. The major topics covered are as follows: (1) electromagnetic scattering analysis; (2) indoor scattering measurement systems; (3) RCS control; (4) waveform processing techniques; (5) material scattering and design studies; (6) design and evaluation of design studies; and (7) antenna studies. Major progress has been made in each of these areas as verified by the numerous publications produced
Radar cross section studies
The ultimate goal is to generate experimental techniques and computer codes of rather general capability that would enable the aerospace industry to evaluate the scattering properties of aerodynamic shapes. Another goal involves developing an understanding of scattering mechanisms so that modification of the vehicular structure could be introduced within constraints set by aerodynamics. The development of indoor scattering measurement systems with special attention given to the compact range is another goal. There has been considerable progress in advancing state-of-the-art scattering measurements and control and analysis of the electromagnetic scattering from general targets
Opportunities for integrated pest management to control the poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae
Dermanyssus gallinae is the most economically important ectoparasite of laying hens in Europe. Control of D. gallinae is already hampered by issues of pesticide resistance and product withdrawal and, with the prohibition of conventional cages in 2012 and the resulting switch to more structurally complex housing which favours red mite, the importance of managing this pest will increase. Integrated Pest Management (IPM), as often employed in agricultural pest control, may be a way to address these issues where a combination of different novel control methods could be used with/without conventional management techniques to provide a synergistic and more efficacious effect. Work at in our laboratory has shown that essential oils including thyme and garlic may act as effective D. gallinae repellents and acaricides, whilst preliminary vaccine studies have demonstrated a significant increase in mite mortality in vitro using concealed antigens. Work elsewhere 27 has considered predators and fungi for D. gallinae control and other husbandry techniques such as manipulating temperature and lighting regimes in poultry units. This paper will review the available and emerging techniques for D. gallinae control and discuss which techniques might be suitable for inclusion in an integrated management programme (e.g. synthetic acaricides and diatomaceous earths)
Synthesis of the tricyclic core of manzamine A
An efficient synthetic approach to the core structure of the manzamine alkaloids is reported, particularly in relation to incorporating a one-carbon unit in ring B from which the aldehyde in ircinal A or the beta-carboline unit in manzamine A could potentially be generated. The key steps involve a Johnson–Claisen rearrangement, enolate alkylation, dithiane alkylation and a stereoselective intramolecular dipolar cycloaddition of an azomethine ylide, which provided the desired tricyclic ABC core structure
Compressive Response of Polycrystalline NiCoMnGa High-Temperature Meta-magnetic Shape Memory Alloys
The effects of the addition of quaternary element, Co, to polycrystalline NiMnGa alloys on their magnetic and shape memory properties have been investigated. NiCoMnGa polycrystalline alloys have been found to demonstrate good shape memory and superelasticity behavior under compression at temperatures greater than 100 °C with about 3% transformation strain and low-temperature hysteresis. It is also possible to train the material to demonstrate a large two-way shape memory effect
Self-Similar Bootstrap of Divergent Series
A method is developed for calculating effective sums of divergent series.
This approach is a variant of the self-similar approximation theory. The
novelty here is in using an algebraic transformation with a power providing the
maximal stability of the self-similar renormalization procedure. The latter is
to be repeated as many times as it is necessary in order to convert into closed
self-similar expressions all sums from the series considered. This multiple and
complete renormalization is called self-similar bootstrap. The method is
illustrated by several examples from statistical physics.Comment: 1 file, 22 pages, RevTe
Characteristics of alpha projectile fragments emission in interaction of nuclei with emulsion
The properties of the relativistic alpha fragments produced in interactions
of 84^Kr at around 1 A GeV in nuclear emulsion are investigated. The
experimental results are compared with the similar results obtained from
various projectiles with emulsion interactions at different energies. The
total, partial nuclear cross-sections and production rates of alpha
fragmentation channels in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions and their
dependence on the mass number and initial energy of the incident projectile
nucleus are investigated. The yields of multiple alpha fragments emitted from
the interactions of projectile nuclei with the nuclei of light, medium and
heavy target groups of emulsion-detector are discussed and they indicate that
the projectile-breakup mechanism seems to be free from the target mass number.
It is found that the multiplicity distributions of alpha fragments are well
described by the Koba-Nielsen-Olesen (KNO) scaling presentation. The mean
multiplicities of the freshly produced newly created charged secondary
particles, normally known as shower and secondary particles associated with
target in the events where the emission of alpha fragments were accompanied by
heavy projectile fragments having Z value larger than 4 seem to be constant as
the alpha fragments multiplicity increases, and exhibit a behavior independent
of the alpha fragments multiplicity.Comment: 33 pages, 8 figures and 3 tables (in press
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