Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable forecasts in the presence of outliers, non-linearity, and heteroscedasticity. In the absence of outliers, the forecasts are only slightly less precise than those based on a localized Least Squares estimator. An additional advantage of the MM-estimator is that it provides a robust estimate of the local variability of the time series.Heteroscedasticity;Non-parametric regression;Prediction;Outliers;Robustness

Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable forecasts in the presence of outliers, non-linearity, and heteroscedasticity. In the absence of outliers, the forecasts are only slightly less precise than those based on a localized Least Squares estimator. An additional advantage of the MM-estimator is that it provides a robust estimate of the local variability of the time series.

Towards understanding the variability in biospheric CO2 fluxes:Using FTIR spectrometry and a chemical transport model to investigate the sources and sinks of carbonyl sulfide and its link to CO2

Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) biospheric processes is of great importance because the terrestrial exchange drives the seasonal and interannual variability of CO2 in the atmosphere. Atmospheric inversions based on CO2 concentration measurements alone can only determine net biosphere fluxes, but not differentiate between photosynthesis (uptake) and respiration (production). Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) could provide an important additional constraint: it is also taken up by plants during photosynthesis but not emitted during respiration, and therefore is a potential means to differentiate between these processes. Solar absorption Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometry allows for the retrievals of the atmospheric concentrations of both CO2 and OCS from measured solar absorption spectra. Here, we investigate co-located and quasi-simultaneous FTIR measurements of OCS and CO2 performed at five selected sites located in the Northern Hemisphere. These measurements are compared to simulations of OCS and CO2 using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The coupled biospheric fluxes of OCS and CO2 from the simple biosphere model (SiB) are used in the study. The CO2 simulation with SiB fluxes agrees with the measurements well, while the OCS simulation reproduced a weaker drawdown than FTIR measurements at selected sites, and a smaller latitudinal gradient in the Northern Hemisphere during growing season when comparing with HIPPO (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations) data spanning both hemispheres. An offset in the timing of the seasonal cycle minimum between SiB simulation and measurements is also seen. Using OCS as a photosynthesis proxy can help to understand how the biospheric processes are reproduced in models and to further understand the carbon cycle in the real world

Death and Display in the North Atlantic: The Bronze and Iron Age Human Remains from Cnip, Lewis, Outer Hebrides

YesThis paper revisits the series of disarticulated human remains discovered during the 1980s excavations of the Cnip wheelhouse complex in Lewis. Four fragments of human bone, including two worked cranial fragments, were originally dated to the 1st centuries BC/AD based on stratigraphic association. Osteoarchaeological reanalysis and AMS dating now provide a broader cultural context for these remains and indicate that at least one adult cranium was brought to the site more than a thousand years after the death of the individual to whom it had belonged

Electronic Structure of a Hydrogenic Acceptor Impurity in Semiconductor Nano-structures

The electronic structure and binding energy of a hydrogenic acceptor impurity in 2, 1, and 0-dimensional semiconductor nano-structures (i.e. quantum well (QW), quantum well wire (QWW), and quantum dot (QD)) are studied in the framework of effective-mass envelope-function theory. The results show that (1) the energy levels monotonically decrease as the quantum confinement sizes increase; (2) the impurity energy levels decrease more slowly for QWWs and QDs as their sizes increase than for QWs; (3) the changes of the acceptor binding energies are very complex as the quantum confinement size increases; (4) the binding energies monotonically decrease as the acceptor moves away from the nano-structures’ center; (5) as the symmetry decreases, the degeneracy is lifted, and the first binding energy level in the QD splits into two branches. Our calculated results are useful for the application of semiconductor nano-structures in electronic and photoelectric devices

5-Oxoprolinuria in hyperammonemic encephalopathy: Coincidence or worsening factor?

International audienc

Ground-based FTIR measurements of O3- and climate-related gases in the free troposphere and lower stratosphere

In the frame of the EC project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from a European ground-based FTIR network), a common strategy for an optimal determination of the chemical composition in the free troposphere and lower stratosphere with ground-based Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers is being developed. The project focuses on 6 target species that are O3, CO, CH4, N2O, C2H6 and CHClF2 (HCFC-22). The strategy consists in selecting the most appropriate parameters to retrieve vertical concentration profiles from solar FTIR spectra. Among the important parameters are the spectral microwindows: they have been optimised to maximise the information content and to minimize the influence of poorly known spectroscopic data and interfering species