Epic Human Failure on June 30, 2013

Nineteen Prescott Fire Department, Granite Mountain Hot Shot (GMHS) wildland firefighters and supervisors (WFF), perished on the June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire (YHF) in Arizona. The firefighters left their Safety Zone during forecast, outflow winds, triggering explosive fire behavior in drought-stressed chaparral. Why would an experienced WFF Crew, leave ‘good black’ and travel downslope through a brush-filled chimney, contrary to their training and experience? An organized Serious Accident Investigation Team (SAIT) found, “… no indication of negligence, reckless actions, or violations of policy or protocol.” Despite this, many WFF professionals deemed the catastrophe, “… the final, fatal link, in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes.” This paper is a theoretical and realistic examination of plausible, faulty, human decisions with prior good outcomes; internal and external impacts, influencing the GMHS; and two explanations for this catastrophe: Individual Blame Logic and Organizational Function Logic, and proposed preventive mitigations

Bless Your Ever Loving Little Heart

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/3543/thumbnail.jp

Retinal degeneration is rescued in transgenic rd mice by expression of the cGMP phosphodiesterase ß subunit

The ß subunit of the cGMP phosphodiesterase (PDE) gene has been identified as the candidate gene for retinal degeneration in the rd mouse. To study the molecular mechanisms underlying degeneration and the potential for gene repair, we have expressed a functional bovine cGMP PDE ß subunit in transgenic rd mice. One transgenic mouse line showed complete photoreceptor rescue across the entire span of the retina. A second independently derived line showed partial rescue in which photoreceptors in the superior but not the inferior hemisphere of the retina were rescued. In the latter animals, intermediate stages of degeneration were observed in the transition zone between rescued and diseased photoreceptors. Pathologic changes in the retina ranged from vesiculation of the basalmost outer segment discs in otherwise structurally intact rod cells to photoreceptors with highly disorganized outer segments and intact inner segments. Totally or partially rescued retinas showed a corresponding restoration of cGMP PDE activity, whereas nonrescued retinas had minimal enzyme activity, characteristic of the rd phenotype. These transgenic animals provide models for studying the molecular basis of retinal degenerative disease and conclusively demonstrate that the phenotype of rd mice is produced by a defect in the ß subunit of cGMP PDE

From neurons to epidemics: How trophic coherence affects spreading processes

Trophic coherence, a measure of the extent to which the nodes of a directed network are organised in levels, has recently been shown to be closely related to many structural and dynamical aspects of complex systems, including graph eigenspectra, the prevalence or absence of feed-back cycles, and linear stability. Furthermore, non-trivial trophic structures have been observed in networks of neurons, species, genes, metabolites, cellular signalling, concatenated words, P2P users, and world trade. Here we consider two simple yet apparently quite different dynamical models -- one a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model adapted to include complex contagion, the other an Amari-Hopfield neural network -- and show that in both cases the related spreading processes are modulated in similar ways by the trophic coherence of the underlying networks. To do this, we propose a network assembly model which can generate structures with tunable trophic coherence, limiting in either perfectly stratified networks or random graphs. We find that trophic coherence can exert a qualitative change in spreading behaviour, determining whether a pulse of activity will percolate through the entire network or remain confined to a subset of nodes, and whether such activity will quickly die out or endure indefinitely. These results could be important for our understanding of phenomena such as epidemics, rumours, shocks to ecosystems, neuronal avalanches, and many other spreading processes

Deconstructing Interrupts with Ara

The emulation of DHTs is a natural issue. After years of important research into lambda calculus, we demonstrate the refinement of multicast frameworks. In order to answer this challenge, we disprove that despite the fact that spreadsheets and kernels are mostly incompatible, 128 bit architectures and active networks are regularly incompatible

Light-dependent translocation of arrestin in the absence of rhodopsin phophorylation and transducin signaling

Visual arrestin plays a crucial role in the termination of the light response in vertebrate photoreceptors by binding selectively to light-activated, phosphorylated rhodopsin. Arrestin localizes predominantly to the inner segments and perinuclear region of dark-adapted rod photoreceptors, whereas light induces redistribution of arrestin to the rod outer segments. The mechanism by which arrestin redistributes in response to light is not known, but it is thought to be associated with the ability of arrestin to bind photolyzed, phosphorylated rhodopsin in the outer segment. In this study, we show that light-driven translocation of arrestin is unaffected in two different mouse models in which rhodopsin phosphorylation is lacking. We further show that arrestin movement is initiated by rhodopsin but does not require transducin signaling. These results exclude passive diffusion and point toward active transport as the mechanism for light-dependent arrestin movement in rod photoreceptor cells

Environmental Influences on the Behavioural and Emotional Outcomes of Children: A Network Analysis

Background: Intellectual developmental disorders are a serious source of health morbidity with negative consequences for adults as well as children. However, there is limited evidence on the environmental, trace element, behavioural, and emotional outcomes in children. Here, we investigated whether there is any association between child behaviour and emotional outcomes and micronutrients using network analysis. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 9-year-old children within a Pacific Island Families study birth cohort. Elemental concentration was determined in children’s toenails after acid digestion and analysed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We used network analysis to identify closely associated trace elements and tested the directions and strength of these trace elements. MANCOVA were used to identify the significant associations between individual elements and the behavioural/emotional function of the children using the children behaviour checklist (CBCL). At the final step, quantile regression analysis was used to assess and quantify the identified associations between CBCL function scores and manganese, adjusted by sex, ethnicity, and standardized BMI. Results: Three major nutrient networks were identified. In the Mn network, Mn was strongly positively associated with Al (0.63) and Fe (r = 0.65) and moderately associated with Pb (r = 0.45) and Sb (r = 0.42). Al was also strongly associated with Fe (r = 0.9). Children in the second or third clinical group, with an elevated externalized CBCL score, had a much higher mean and median level of Mn as compared to the normal range group. The aggression score was significantly associated with Mn concentration and sex. Higher Mn concentrations were associated with a higher aggression score. A 1 ug/g unit increase in Mn was associated with a 2.44-fold increase (95% confidence interval: 1.55–4.21) in aggression score, and boys had higher median aggression score than girls (difference: 1.7, 95% CI: 0.9–2.8). Attention and rule breaking scores were both significantly associated with Mn concentration. Higher Mn concentrations were associated with higher attention behaviour problem and rule breaking scores. A 1 ug/g unit increase in Mn was found to be associated with a 1.80-fold increase (95% confidence interval: 1.37–2.82) in attention score, and a 1.46-fold increase (95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.74) in the rule breaking score. Thought score was not significantly associated with Mn concentration (p = 0.13) but was significantly lower in boys (p = 0.004). Conclusions: Exceeding Mn levels is potentially toxic and has been identified to be associated with worse externalized children’s behavioural health and emotional well-being. Future studies are necessary to find the exposure paths so that advice shall be provided to family and care providers in public health and environmental protection

Numerical treatment of the hyperboloidal initial value problem for the vacuum Einstein equations. III. On the determination of radiation

We discuss the issue of radiation extraction in asymptotically flat space-times within the framework of conformal methods for numerical relativity. Our aim is to show that there exists a well defined and accurate extraction procedure which mimics the physical measurement process. It operates entirely intrisically within \scri^+ so that there is no further approximation necessary apart from the basic assumption that the arena be an asymptotically flat space-time. We define the notion of a detector at infinity by idealising local observers in Minkowski space. A detailed discussion is presented for Maxwell fields and the generalisation to linearised and full gravity is performed by way of the similar structure of the asymptotic fields.Comment: LaTeX2e,13 pages,2 figure

Staying true with the help of others: doxastic self-control through interpersonal commitment

I explore the possibility and rationality of interpersonal mechanisms of doxastic self-control, that is, ways in which individuals can make use of other people in order to get themselves to stick to their beliefs. I look, in particular, at two ways in which people can make interpersonal epistemic commitments, and thereby willingly undertake accountability to others, in order to get themselves to maintain their beliefs in the face of anticipated “epistemic temptations”. The first way is through the avowal of belief, and the second is through the establishment of collective belief. I argue that both of these forms of interpersonal epistemic commitment can function as effective tools for doxastic self-control, and, moreover, that the control they facilitate should not be dismissed as irrational from an epistemic perspective

Ab initio calculations of CaZrO3 (011) surfaces: systematic trends in polar (011) surface calculations of ABO3 perovskites

Financial support via Latvian-Ukrainian Joint Research Project No. LV-UA/2018/2 for A. I. Popov, Latvian Council of Science Project No. 2018/2-0083 “Theoretical prediction of hybrid nanostructured photocatalytic materials for efficient water splitting” for R. I. Eglitis and J. Kleperis as well as ERAF project No. 1.1.1.1/18/A/073 for R. I. Eglitis and J. Purans is greatly acknowledged.By means of the CRYSTAL computer program package, first-principles calculations of polar ZrO-, Ca- and O-terminated CaZrO3 (011) surfaces were performed. Our calculation results for polar CaZrO3 (011) surfaces are compared with the previous ab initio calculation results for ABO3 perovskite (011) and (001) surfaces. From the results of our hybrid B3LYP calculations, all upper-layer atoms on the ZrO-, Ca- and O-terminated CaZrO3 (011) surfaces relax inwards. The only exception from this systematic trend is outward relaxation of the oxygen atom on the ZrO-terminated CaZrO3 (011) surface. Different ZrO, Ca and O terminations of the CaZrO3 (011) surface lead to a quite different surface energies of 3.46, 1.49, and 2.08 eV. Our calculations predict a considerable increase in the Zr–O chemical bond covalency near the CaZrO3 (011) surface, both in the directions perpendicular to the surface (0.240e) as well as in the plane (0.138e), as compared to the CaZrO3 (001) surface (0.102e) and to the bulk (0.086e). Such increase in the B–O chemical bond population from the bulk towards the (001) and especially (011) surfaces is a systematic trend in all our eight calculated ABO3 perovskites. This work is licensed under a CC BY license.Latvian-Ukrainian Joint Research Project No. LV-UA/2018/2; Latvian Council of Science Project No. 2018/2-0083; ERAF project No. 1.1.1.1/18/A/073; Institute of Solid State Physics, University of Latvia as the Center of Excellence has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme H2020-WIDESPREAD-01-2016-2017-TeamingPhase2 under grant agreement No. 739508, project CAMART²