Inter-population synchrony in adult survival and effects of climate and extreme weather in non-breeding areas of Atlantic puffins

Seabirds are undergoing drastic declines globally and spend the non-breeding season at sea, making it challenging to study the drivers of their survival. Harsh weather and changes in climate conditions can have drastic impacts on seabird population dynamics through increased mortality. The intensity and persistence of extreme events are forecasted to increase with global warming. As shared conditions can induce population synchrony, multi-population studies of key demographic parameters are imperative to explore the influence of climate change. We used long-term mark-recapture data and position (GLS) data to determine non-breeding stop-over areas of five Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations over a latitudinal gradient in the north-eastern Atlantic (56°11’–70°23’N). We investigated synchrony in adult survival in relation to shared stop-over areas. We quantified effects of extreme extra-tropical cyclones (ETC) specific to populations’ stop-over areas and the North Atlantic Oscillation on adult survival. Populations with overlapping stop-over areas exhibited temporal synchrony in survival rates. Winter ETCs negatively influenced survival in one population, which was the one most exposed to extreme weather, but did not directly influence adult survival in the other four populations. Synchrony among populations with shared stop-over areas highlights the importance of these areas for adult survival, a key life-history rate. However, extreme weather was not identified as a driving factor for four of the population. This suggests other factors in these areas, likely related to bottom-up trophic interactions, as environmental drivers of synchrony in the survival of Atlantic puffins

Impact of pregnancy-related deaths on female life expectancy in Zambia: application of lifetable techniques to census data

Introduction Since 2000, the world has been coalesced around efforts to reduce maternal mortality. However, few studies have estimated the significance of eliminating maternal deaths on female life expectancy. We estimated, based on census data, the potential gains in female life expectancy assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related mortality in Zambia. Methods We used data on all-cause and pregnancy-related deaths of females aged 15–49 reported in the Zambia 2010 census, and evaluated, adjusted and smoothed them using existing and verified techniques. We used associated single decrement life tables, assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths to estimate the potential gains in female life expectancy at birth, at age 15, and over the ages 15–49. We compared these gains with the gains from eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, violence and suicide. Results Complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths would extend life expectancy at birth among Zambian women by 1.35 years and life expectancy at age 15 by 1.65 years. In rural areas, this would be 1.69 years and 2.19 years, respectively, and in urban areas, 0.78 years and 0.85 years. An additional 0.72 years would be spent in the reproductive age group 15–49; 1.00 years in rural areas and 0.35 years in urban areas. Eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, suicide and violence among women aged 15–49 would cumulatively contribute 0.55 years to female life expectancy at birth. Conclusion Eliminating pregnancy-related mortality would extend female life expectancy in Zambia substantially, with more gains among adolescents and females in rural areas. The application of life table techniques to census data proved very valuable, although rigorous evaluation and adjustment of reported deaths and age was necessary to attain plausible estimates. The collection of detailed high quality cause-specific mortality data in future censuses is indispensable

Københavns Universitet Condom availability in high risk places and condom use BMC Public Health Condom availability in high risk places and condom use: a study at district level in Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia

Abstract Backgroun

Paraglacial rock-slope failure following deglaciation in western Norway

© 2020 Springer-Verlag.The paraglacial framework describes the geomorphological response to glaciation and deglaciation, whereby non-renewable, metastable, glacially-conditioned sediment sources are progressively released by a range of nonglacial processes. These include slope failures that directly modify the bedrock topography of mountain landscapes. This chapter synthesises recent research on the paraglacial evolution of western Norway’s mountain rock-slopes, and evaluates the importance of glaciation, deglaciation, and associated climatic and non-climatic processes. Following an introduction to the concept of paraglacial landscape change, current understanding of rock-slope responses to deglaciation are outlined, focussing on the spatial distribution, timing, duration and triggers for rock-slope failure (RSF). Preliminary analysis of an inventory of published ages for 49 prehistoric RSFs indicates that the great majority of activity occurred in the Late Weichselian / Early Holocene transition (~13-9 ka), within 2 ka of deglaciation. Subsequent RSFs were much smaller, though event frequency increased again at 8-7 ka and 5-4 ka BP. The majority of RSFs were not directly triggered by deglaciation (debuttressing) but were preconditioned for more than 1000 years after ice withdrawal, until slopes collapsed. It is proposed that the primary causes of failure within 2 ka of ice retreat were stress redistribution, subcritical fracture propagation, and possibly seismic activity. Earthquakes may have triggered renewed RSF in the Late Holocene, though it seems likely that permafrost degradation and water supply were locally important. Priority avenues for further research are briefly identified.Peer reviewe