Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Accelerating the Evolution of Nonhuman Primate Neuroimaging

Nonhuman primate neuroimaging is on the cusp of a transformation, much in the same way its human counterpart was in 2010, when the Human Connectome Project was launched to accelerate progress. Inspired by an open data-sharing initiative, the global community recently met and, in this article, breaks through obstacles to define its ambitions

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500–44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5–29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000–3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6–45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3–81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6–10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8–39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories. Methods We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Findings In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9–24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89–1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8–28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48–1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1–75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1–612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2–123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4–52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1–85·2) of anaemia YLDs. Interpretation Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The ‘low-volume acetabulum’: dysplasia in disguise

Although there are well described radiological criteria for diagnosing DDH, our experience has highlighted that a new sub-category of hips exists in which the classic radiographic characteristics for DDH may be normal but the coverage of the femoral head is compromised. The purpose of this study was to validate a simple radiographic measurement method for calculating the depth of the acetabulum in order to detect individuals with ‘low-volume’ acetabuli and under-covered femoral heads. We identified 24 patients who were suspected of having low-volume acetabuli and compared their radiographs with those of 150 patients with non-dysplastic hips. The radiographic indices measured included the lateral center-edge (CE) angle, the anterior CE angle, the femoral neck-shaft angle, the extrusion index, integrity of the Shenton’s line, the crossover sign, and ischial spine sign. We have developed a novel, but a simple method, named the ‘coverage index’ (CI) to identify the presence of a low-volume acetabulum on plain radiographs. Comparisons were made between the low-volume hips and the non-dysplastic hips. The radiographic parameters indicative of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) were within normal limits in all patients with low-volume acetabuli and therefore these hips could not be classified as ‘dysplastic’ based on the traditional radiological parameters. There was no difference between the mean radius of the femoral head in two groups. The mean CI was significantly greater in the non-dysplastic group compared with the low-volume acetabula cohort (1.62 ± 0.117 in non-dysplastic group versus 1.07 ± 0.11 in low-volume hips) (P = 0.0001). Orthopaedic surgeons should be aware of a hip abnormality in which the femoral head coverage is deficient, yet all the conventional parameters for measuring coverage, including the center edge angle, are within normal limits. We have introduced a simple radiographic measurement method that may help surgeons identify these patients using the anteroposterior radiographs of the hip

The ‘low-volume acetabulum’: dysplasia in disguise

Although there are well described radiological criteria for diagnosing DDH, our experience has highlighted that a new sub-category of hips exists in which the classic radiographic characteristics for DDH may be normal but the coverage of the femoral head is compromised. The purpose of this study was to validate a simple radiographic measurement method for calculating the depth of the acetabulum in order to detect individuals with ‘low-volume’ acetabuli and under-covered femoral heads. We identified 24 patients who were suspected of having low-volume acetabuli and compared their radiographs with those of 150 patients with non-dysplastic hips. The radiographic indices measured included the lateral center-edge (CE) angle, the anterior CE angle, the femoral neck-shaft angle, the extrusion index, integrity of the Shenton’s line, the crossover sign, and ischial spine sign. We have developed a novel, but a simple method, named the ‘coverage index’ (CI) to identify the presence of a low-volume acetabulum on plain radiographs. Comparisons were made between the low-volume hips and the non-dysplastic hips. The radiographic parameters indicative of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) were within normal limits in all patients with low-volume acetabuli and therefore these hips could not be classified as ‘dysplastic’ based on the traditional radiological parameters. There was no difference between the mean radius of the femoral head in two groups. The mean CI was significantly greater in the non-dysplastic group compared with the low-volume acetabula cohort (1.62 ± 0.117 in non-dysplastic group versus 1.07 ± 0.11 in low-volume hips) (P = 0.0001). Orthopaedic surgeons should be aware of a hip abnormality in which the femoral head coverage is deficient, yet all the conventional parameters for measuring coverage, including the center edge angle, are within normal limits. We have introduced a simple radiographic measurement method that may help surgeons identify these patients using the anteroposterior radiographs of the hip

A survival analysis of 1084 knees of the Oxford unicompartmental knee arthroplasty: a comparison between consultant and trainee surgeons.

Aims The aim of this to study was to compare the previously unreported long-term survival outcome of the Oxford medial unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) performed by trainee surgeons and Consultants. Methods We therefore identified a previously unreported cohort of 1084 knees in 947 patients who had a UKR inserted for anteromedial knee arthritis by Consultant and surgeons in training at a tertiary arthroplasty centre and performed survival analysis on the group with revision as the endpoint. Results The 10-year cumulative survival rate for revision or exchange of any part of the prosthetic components was 93.2% (95% CI 7.1, Number at risk 45). Consultant surgeons had a 9-year cumulative survival rate of 93.9% (95% CI 3.7, Number at risk 16). Trainee surgeons had a cumulative 9-year survival rate of 93.0% (95% CI 2.7, Number at risk 35). Although there was no differences in implant survival between consultants and trainees (p=0.30), there was a difference in failure pattern whereby all re-operations performed for bearing dislocation (n=7), occurred in the trainee group. This accounted for 0.6% of the entire cohort and 15% of the re-operations. Conclusions This is the largest single series of the Oxford UKR ever reported and demonstrates that good results can be achieved by a heterogeneous group of surgeons, including trainees, if performed within a high-volume centre with considerable experience with the procedure.</p

A survival analysis of 1084 knees of the Oxford unicompartmental knee arthroplasty: a comparison between consultant and trainee surgeons.

Aims The aim of this to study was to compare the previously unreported long-term survival outcome of the Oxford medial unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) performed by trainee surgeons and Consultants. Methods We therefore identified a previously unreported cohort of 1084 knees in 947 patients who had a UKR inserted for anteromedial knee arthritis by Consultant and surgeons in training at a tertiary arthroplasty centre and performed survival analysis on the group with revision as the endpoint. Results The 10-year cumulative survival rate for revision or exchange of any part of the prosthetic components was 93.2% (95% CI 7.1, Number at risk 45). Consultant surgeons had a 9-year cumulative survival rate of 93.9% (95% CI 3.7, Number at risk 16). Trainee surgeons had a cumulative 9-year survival rate of 93.0% (95% CI 2.7, Number at risk 35). Although there was no differences in implant survival between consultants and trainees (p=0.30), there was a difference in failure pattern whereby all re-operations performed for bearing dislocation (n=7), occurred in the trainee group. This accounted for 0.6% of the entire cohort and 15% of the re-operations. Conclusions This is the largest single series of the Oxford UKR ever reported and demonstrates that good results can be achieved by a heterogeneous group of surgeons, including trainees, if performed within a high-volume centre with considerable experience with the procedure.</p