Fear and its implications for stock markets

The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend. These empirical asymmetries predict that stock index drops are more common on a relatively short time scale than the corresponding raises. We present several empirical examples of such asymmetries. Furthermore, a simple model featuring occasional short periods of synchronized dropping prices for all stocks constituting the index is introduced with the aim of explaining these facts. The collective negative price movements are imagined triggered by external factors in our society, as well as internal to the economy, that create fear of the future among investors. This is parameterized by a ``fear factor'' defining the frequency of synchronized events. It is demonstrated that such a simple fear factor model can reproduce several empirical facts concerning index asymmetries. It is also pointed out that in its simplest form, the model has certain shortcomings.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to the Proceedings of Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis 5, Turin 200

Interpolated sequences and critical LL-values of modular forms

Recently, Zagier expressed an interpolated version of the Ap\'ery numbers for $\zeta(3)$ in terms of a critical $L$-value of a modular form of weight 4. We extend this evaluation in two directions. We first prove that interpolations of Zagier's six sporadic sequences are essentially critical $L$-values of modular forms of weight 3. We then establish an infinite family of evaluations between interpolations of leading coefficients of Brown's cellular integrals and critical $L$-values of modular forms of odd weight.Comment: 23 pages, to appear in Proceedings for the KMPB conference: Elliptic Integrals, Elliptic Functions and Modular Forms in Quantum Field Theor

Synchronization Model for Stock Market Asymmetry

The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this, we introduce a market model consisting of randomly fluctuating stocks that occasionally synchronize their short term draw-downs. These synchronous events are parameterized by a ``fear factor'', that reflects the occurrence of dramatic external events which affect the financial market.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Latent ice recrystallization inhibition activity in nonantifreeze proteins : Ca2+-activated plant lectins and cation-activated antimicrobial peptides

Organisms living in polar regions have evolved a series of antifreeze (glyco) proteins (AFGPs) to enable them to survive by modulating the structure of ice. These proteins have huge potential for use in cellular cryopreservation, ice-resistant surfaces, frozen food, and cryosurgery, but they are limited by their relatively low availability and questions regarding their mode of action. This has triggered the search for biomimetic materials capable of reproducing this function. The identification of new structures and sequences capable of inhibiting ice growth is crucial to aid our understanding of these proteins. Here, we show that plant c-type lectins, which have similar biological function to human c-type lectins (glycan recognition) but no sequence homology to AFPs, display calcium-dependent ice recrystallization inhibition (IRI) activity. This IRI activity can be switched on/off by changing the Ca2+ concentration. To show that more (nonantifreeze) proteins may exist with the potential to display IRI, a second motif was considered, amphipathicity. All known AFPs have defined hydrophobic/hydrophilic domains, rationalizing this choice. The cheap, and widely used, antimicrobial Nisin was found to have cation-dependent IRI activity, controlled by either acid or addition of histidine-binding ions such as zinc or nickel, which promote its amphipathic structure. These results demonstrate a new approach in the identification of antifreeze protein mimetic macromolecules and may help in the development of synthetic mimics of AFPs

The role of repressor kinetics in relief of transcriptional interference between convergent promoters

Transcriptional interference (TI), where transcription from a promoter is inhibited by the activity of other promoters in its vicinity on the same DNA, enables transcription factors to regulate a target promoter indirectly, inducing or relieving TI by controlling the interfering promoter. For convergent promoters, stochastic simulations indicate that relief of TI can be inhibited if the repressor at the interfering promoter has slow binding kinetics, making it either sensitive to frequent dislodgement by elongating RNA polymerases (RNAPs) from the target promoter, or able to be a strong roadblock to these RNAPs. In vivo measurements of relief of TI by CI or Cro repressors in the bacteriophage λ PR-PRE system show strong relief of TI and a lack of dislodgement and roadblocking effects, indicative of rapid CI and Cro binding kinetics. However, repression of the same λ promoter by a catalytically dead CRISPR Cas9 protein gave either compromised or no relief of TI depending on the orientation at which it binds DNA, consistent with dCas9 being a slow kinetics repressor. This analysis shows how the intrinsic properties of a repressor can be evolutionarily tuned to set the magnitude of relief of TI.Nan Hao, Adam C. Palmer, Alexandra Ahlgren-Berg, Keith E. Shearwin, and Ian B. Dod

Long-term fuel retention and release in JET ITER-Like Wall at ITER-relevant baking temperatures

The fuel outgassing efficiency from plasma-facing components exposed in JET-ILW has been studied at ITER-relevant baking temperatures. Samples retrieved from the W divertor and Be main chamber were annealed at 350 and 240 degrees C, respectively. Annealing was performed with thermal desoprtion spectrometry (TDS) for 0, 5 and 15 h to study the deuterium removal effectiveness at the nominal baking temperatures. The remained fraction was determined by emptying the samples fully of deuterium by heating W and Be samples up to 1000 and 775 degrees C, respectively. Results showed the deposits in the divertor having an increasing effect to the remaining retention at temperatures above baking. Highest remaining fractions 54 and 87% were observed with deposit thicknesses of 10 and 40 mu m, respectively. Substantially high fractions were obtained in the main chamber samples from the deposit-free erosion zone of the limiter midplane, in which the dominant fuel retention mechanism is via implantation: 15 h annealing resulted in retained deuterium higher than 90%. TDS results from the divertor were simulated with TMAP7 calculations. The spectra were modelled with three deuterium activation energies resulting in good agreement with the experiments.Peer reviewe

Testing web enabled simulation at scale using metamorphic testing

We report on Facebook's deployment of MIA (Metamorphic Interaction Automaton). MIA is used to test Facebook's Web Enabled Simulation, built on a web infrastructure of hundreds of millions of lines of code. MIA tackles the twin problems of test flakiness and the unknowable oracle problem. It uses metamorphic testing to automate continuous integration and regression test execution. MIA also plays the role of a test bot, automatically commenting on all relevant changes submitted for code review. It currently uses a suite of over 40 metamorphic test cases. Even at this extreme scale, a non-trivial metamorphic test suite subset yields outcomes within 20 minutes (sufficient for continuous integration and review processes). Furthermore, our offline mode simulation reduces test flakiness from approximately 50% (of all online tests) to 0% (offline). Metamorphic testing has been widely-studied for 22 years. This paper is the first reported deployment into an industrial continuous integration system

Knowledge Integration and Diffusion: Measures and Mapping of Diversity and Coherence

I present a framework based on the concepts of diversity and coherence for the analysis of knowledge integration and diffusion. Visualisations that help understand insights gained are also introduced. The key novelty offered by this framework compared to previous approaches is the inclusion of cognitive distance (or proximity) between the categories that characterise the body of knowledge under study. I briefly discuss the different methods to map the cognitive dimension

Road rules for traffic on DNA - systematic analysis of transcriptional roadblocking in vivo

Genomic DNA is bound by many proteins that could potentially impede elongation of RNA polymerase (RNAP), but the factors determining the magnitude of transcriptional roadblocking in vivo are poorly understood. Through systematic experiments and modeling, we analyse how roadblocking by the lac repressor (LacI) in Escherichia coli cells is controlled by promoter firing rate, the concentration and affinity of the roadblocker protein, the transcription-coupled repair protein Mfd, and promoter-roadblock spacing. Increased readthrough of the roadblock at higher RNAP fluxes requires active dislodgement of LacI by multiple RNAPs. However, this RNAP cooperation effect occurs only for strong promoters because roadblock-paused RNAP is quickly terminated by Mfd. The results are most consistent with a single RNAP also sometimes dislodging LacI, though we cannot exclude the possibility that a single RNAP reads through by waiting for spontaneous LacI dissociation. Reducing the occupancy of the roadblock site by increasing the LacI off-rate (weakening the operator) increased dislodgement strongly, giving a stronger effect on readthrough than decreasing the LacI on-rate (decreasing LacI concentration). Thus, protein binding kinetics can be tuned to maintain site occupation while reducing detrimental roadblocking.Nan Hao, Sandeep Krishna, Alexandra Ahlgren-Berg, Erin E. Cutts, Keith E. Shearwin, and Ian B. Dod

Facebook’s Cyber–Cyber and Cyber–Physical Digital Twins

A cyber-cyber digital twin is a simulation of a software system. By contrast, a cyber-physical digital twin is a simulation of a non-software (physical) system. Although cyber-physical digital twins have received a lot of recent attention, their cyber-cyber counterparts have been comparatively overlooked. In this paper we show how the unique properties of cyber-cyber digital twins open up exciting opportunities for research and development. Like all digital twins, the cyber-cyber digital twin is both informed by and informs the behaviour of the twin it simulates. It is therefore a software system that simulates another software system, making it conceptually truly a twin, blurring the distinction between the simulated and the simulator. Cyber-cyber digital twins can be twins of other cyber-cyber digital twins, leading to a hierarchy of twins. As we shall see, these apparently philosophical observations have practical ramifications for the design, implementation and deployment of digital twins at Facebook