Validation of the effect of cross-calibrated GOES solar proton effective energies on derived integral fluxes by comparison with STEREO observations

The derivation of integral fluxes from instrument coincidence rates requires accurate knowledge of their effective energies. Recent cross calibrations of GOES with the high-energy-resolution Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME) (Sandberg et al., Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, 4435, 2014a) gave significantly lower effective energies than those currently used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to calculate solar proton integral fluxes from GOES rates. This implies systematically lower integral fluxes than currently produced. This paper quantifies the differences between the current and the cross-calibrated GOES integral fluxes and validates the latter. Care is taken to rule out the spectral resolution of the measurements or different integration algorithms as major contributors to differences in the magnitudes of the derived integral fluxes. The lower effective energies are validated by comparison with the independent, high-resolution observations by the STEREO Low-Energy Telescope (LET) and High-Energy Telescope (HET) during the December 2006 solar proton events. The current GOES product is similar to the >10 MeV integral fluxes recalculated by using the Sandberg et al. [2014a] effective energies but is substantially greater at higher energies. (The median ratios of the current to the recalculated fluxes are 1.1 at >10 MeV, 1.7 at >30 MeV, 2.1 at >60 MeV, and 2.9 at >100 MeV.) By virtue of this validation, the cross-calibrated GOES integral fluxes should be considered more accurate than the current NOAA product. The results of this study also demonstrate good consistency between the two long-term IMP 8 GME and STEREO LET and HET solar proton data sets

Developing diagnostics for input-output systems: the effects of certain linear and nonlinear filters on the correlation integral

International audienceInput-output systems are characterized by applying time series analysis techniques developed for autonomous systems to the input and the output time series separately and using the results as nonlinear statistics of the time series distributions. Two examples are presented using the correlation integral as a nonlinear statistic: the first one examines the change in the statistic when several sample input time series are passed through a nonlinear filter. The rectifier is chosen as the filter because it models, at first approximation, the effect of dayside magnetospheric reconnection to the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind input. The changes in the correlation integral are used to characterize the filter response. A second example compares a linear filter of the rectified solar wind input to the observed auroral geomagnetic activity in terms of their correlation integrals. Implications for models of the solar wind-magneto- sphere coupling are discussed

From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

International audienceWe show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release ? manifested in the increase in susceptibility ? couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback) to persistent (positive feedback) behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere

Intense space storms: Critical issues and open disputes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94671/1/jgra16863.pd

Electron radiation belt safety indices based on the SafeSpace modelling pipeline and dedicated to the internal charging risk

In this paper, we present the SafeSpace prototype for a safety warning system, dedicated to the electron radiation-belt-induced internal charging hazard aboard spacecraft. The space weather tool relies on a synergy of physical models associated in a chain that covers the whole Sun–interplanetary-space–Earth's inner magnetosphere medium. With the propagation of uncertainties along the modelling pipeline, the safety prototype provides a global nowcast and forecast (within a 4 d lead time) of the electron radiation belt dynamic as well as tailored indicators for space industry operators. They are meant to inform the users about the severity of the electron space environment via a three-coloured alarm system, which sorts the index intensity according to a representative historical distribution of in situ data. The system was tested during the challenging 2015 St Patrick's Day storm in order to assess its performance. It showed overall good nowcasting and forecasting capabilities due to its broad physics-driven pipeline.</p

Association of radiation belt electron enhancements with earthward penetration of Pc5 ULF waves: a case study of intense 2001 magnetic storms

Geospace magnetic storms, driven by the solar wind, are associated with increases or decreases in the fluxes of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. We examine the response of relativistic electrons to four intense magnetic storms, during which the minimum of the Dst index ranged from −105 to −387 nT, and compare these with concurrent observations of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves from the trans-Scandinavian IMAGE magnetometer network and stations from multiple magnetometer arrays available through the worldwide SuperMAG collaboration. The latitudinal and global distribution of Pc5 wave power is examined to determine how deep into the magnetosphere these waves penetrate. We then investigate the role of Pc5 wave activity deep in the magnetosphere in enhancements of radiation belt electrons population observed in the recovery phase of the magnetic storms. We show that, during magnetic storms characterized by increased post-storm electron fluxes as compared to their pre-storm values, the earthward shift of peak and inner boundary of the outer electron radiation belt follows the Pc5 wave activity, reaching L shells as low as 3–4. In contrast, the one magnetic storm characterized by irreversible loss of electrons was related to limited Pc5 wave activity that was not intensified at low L shells. These observations demonstrate that enhanced Pc5 ULF wave activity penetrating deep into the magnetosphere during the main and recovery phase of magnetic storms can, for the cases examined, distinguish storms that resulted in increases in relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belts from those that did not

Chaos and magnetospheric dynamics

International audienceOur intention in this work is to show, by using two different methods, that magnetospheric dynamics reveal low dimensional chaos. In the first method we extend the chaotic analysis for the AE index time series by including singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis in combination with Theiler's test in order to discriminate dynamical chaos from self-affinity or "crinkliness". The estimated fractality of the AE index time series which is obtained belongs to a strange attractor structure with close returns in the reconstructed phase space. In the second method we extend the linear equivalent magnetospheric electric circuit to a nonlinear one, the arithmetic solution of which reveals low dimensional chaotic dynamics. Both methods strongly support the existence of low dimensional magnetospheric chaos