Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance: Approximately 356 000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the United States. They have high risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). / Objective: To assess the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with strategies for COVID-19 management among adults experiencing sheltered homelessness. / Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic model used a simulated cohort of 2258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston, Massachusetts. Cohort characteristics and costs were adapted from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were taken from published literature and national databases. Surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re], 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9, respectively) were examined. Costs were from a health care sector perspective, and the time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020. / Exposures: Daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals with positive symptom screening results, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternative care sites (ACSs) for mild or moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing were each compared with no intervention. / Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case of COVID-19 prevented. / Results: The simulated population of 2258 sheltered homeless adults had a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (9.04) years. Compared with no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild or moderate disease was associated with 37% fewer infections (1954 vs 1239) and 46% lower costs ($6.10 million vs$3.27 million) at an Re of 2.6, 75% fewer infections (538 vs 137) and 72% lower costs ($1.46 million vs$0.41 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 51% fewer infections (174 vs 85) and 51% lower costs ($0.54 million vs$0.26 million) at an Re of 0.9. Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with a further decrease in infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1000 at an Re of 2.6,$27 000 at an Re of 1.3, and $71 000 at an Re of 0.9. Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more expensive than other options. Compared with no intervention, temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was associated with 81$39.12 million) at an Re of 2.6, 82% fewer infections (95) and 2568% higher costs ($38.97 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 59$38.94 million) at an Re of 0.9. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission. / Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94$340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa

Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$1,290/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective. Findings With R e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76$350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER$294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective

Tigecycline use in serious nosocomial infections: a drug use evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tigecycline is a novel antibiotic with activity against multidrug resistant bacteria. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of tigecycline use in serious hospital-acquired infections (HAI)</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Prospective observational study of tigecycline use was conducted in a 1500 beds university hospital. From January 1, 2007 and January 31, 2010, 207 pts were treated with tigecycline for the following indications: intra-abdominal, pneumonia, bloodstream and complicated skin and soft tissue infections and febrile neutropenia. The therapy was targeted in 130/207 (63%) and empirical in 77/207 (37%) patients. All bacteria treated were susceptible to tigecycline. Median duration of tigecycline therapy was 13 days (range, 6-28). Clinical success was obtained in 151/207 (73%) cases, with the highest success rate recorded in intra-abdominal infections [81/99 (82%)]. Microbiological success was achieved in 100/129 (78%) treated patients. Adverse clinical events were seen in 16/207 patients (7.7%):</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Considering the lack of data on tigecycline for critically ill patients, we think that the reported data of our clinical experience despite some limitations can be useful for clinicians.</p

Nosocomial acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphyloccocus aureus (MRSA) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) Enterobacteriaceae in hospitalised patients: a prospective multicenter study

The risk of acquisition of antibiotic resistant-bacteria during or shortly after antibiotic therapy is still unclear and it is often confounded by scarce data on antibiotic usage.Primary objective of the study is to compare rates of acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in hospitalised patients, after starting antibiotic therapy

Risk Factors, Molecular Epidemiology and Outcomes of Ertapenem-Resistant, Carbapenem-Susceptible Enterobacteriaceae: A Case-Case-Control Study

Background: Increasing prevalence of ertapenem-resistant, carbapenem-susceptible Enterobacteriaceae (ERE) in Singapore presents a major therapeutic problem. Our objective was to determine risk factors associated with the acquisition of ERE in hospitalized patients; to assess associated patient outcomes; and to describe the molecular characteristics of ERE. Methods: A retrospective case-case-control study was conducted in 2009 at a tertiary care hospital. Hospitalized patients with ERE and those with ertapenem-sensitive Enterobacteriaceae (ESE) were compared with a common control group consisting of patients with no prior gram-negative infections. Risk factors analyzed included demographics; co-morbidities; instrumentation and antibiotic exposures. Two parallel multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify independent variables associated with ERE and ESE acquisition respectively. Clinical outcomes were compared between ERE and ESE patients. Results: Twenty-nine ERE cases, 29 ESE cases and 87 controls were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression showed that previous hospitalization (Odds ratio [OR], 10.40; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 2.19–49.20) and duration of fluoroquinolones exposure (OR, 1.18 per day increase; 95 % CI, 1.05–1.34) were unique independent predictors for acquiring ERE. Duration of 4 th-generation cephalosporin exposure was found to predict for ESE acquisition (OR, 1.63 per day increase; 95 % CI, 1.05– 2.54). In-hospital mortality rates and clinical response rates were significantly different between ERE and ESE groups

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among HIV-positive and HIV-negative populations in sub-Saharan Africa-a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a constellation of conditions that increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases. It is an emerging concern in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, particularly because of an increasingly aging population and lifestyle changes. There is an increased risk of MetS and its components among people living with Human immune deficiency syndrome (HIV) individuals; however, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the SSA population and its differential contribution by HIV status is not yet established. This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to estimate the pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome in people living with HIV and uninfected populations, its variation by sub-components. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive search on major databases-MEDLINE (PubMed), EBSCOhost, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Web of sciences for original epidemiological research articles that compared proportions of the MetS and its subcomponents between people living with HIV and uninfected patients and published between January 1990-December 2017. The inclusion criteria were adults aged ≥ 18 years, with confirmed HIV status. We assessed the risk of bias using a prevalence studies tool, and random effect meta-analyses were used to compute the pooled overall prevalence. RESULTS: A total of four cross-sectional studies comprising 496 HIV uninfected and 731 infected participants were included in the meta-analysis. The overall prevalence of MetS among people living with HIV was 21.5% (95% CI 15.09-26.86) versus uninfected 12.0% (95% CI 5.00-21.00%), with substantial heterogeneity. The reported relative risk estimate for MetS among the two groups was twofold (RR 1.83, 95% CI 0.98-3.41), with an estimated predictive interval of 0.15 to 22.43 and P = 0.055 higher for the infected population. Hypertension was the most prevalent MetS sub-components, with diverse proportions of people living with HIV (5.2-50.0%) and uninfected (10.0-59.0%) populations. CONCLUSIONS: The high range of MetS prevalence in the HIV-infected population compared to the uninfected population highlights the possible presence of HIV related drivers of MetS. Also, the reported high rate of MetS, irrespective of HIV status, indicates a major metabolic disorder epidemic that requires urgent prevention and management programs in SSA. Similarly, in the era of universal test and treat strategy among people living with HIV cohorts, routine check-up of MetS sub-components is required in HIV management as biomarkers. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016045727

Cost effectiveness of potential ART adherence monitoring interventions in sub-saharan Africa

Background Interventions based around objective measurement of adherence to antiretroviral drugs for HIV have potential to improve adherence and to enable differentiation of care such that clinical visits are reduced in those with high adherence. It would be useful to understand the approximate upper limit of cost that could be considered for such interventions of a given effectiveness in order to be cost effective. Such information can guide whether to implement an intervention in the light of a trial showing a certain effectiveness and cost. Methods An individual-based model, calibrated to Zimbabwe, which incorporates effects of adherence and resistance to antiretroviral therapy, was used to model the potential impact of adherence monitoring-based interventions on viral suppression, death rates, disability adjusted life years and costs. Potential component effects of the intervention were: enhanced average adherence when on ART, reduced risk of ART discontinuation, and reduced risk of resistance acquisition. We considered a situation in which viral load monitoring is not available and one in which it is. In the former case, it was assumed that care would be differentiated based on the adherence level, with fewer clinic visits in those demonstrated to have high adherence. In the latter case, care was assumed to be primarily differentiated according to viral load level. The maximum intervention cost required to be cost effective was calculated based on a cost effectiveness threshold of $500 per DALY averted. Findings In the absence of viral load monitoring, an adherence monitoring-based intervention which results in a durable 6$50 per person-year on ART, mainly driven by the cost savings of differentiation of care. In the presence of viral load monitoring availability, an intervention with a similar effect on viral load suppression was cost-effective when costing $23-$32 per year, depending on whether the adherence intervention is used to reduce the level of need for viral load measurement. Conclusion The cost thresholds identified suggest that there is clear scope for adherence monitoringbased interventions to provide net population health gain, with potential cost-effective use in situations where viral load monitoring is or is not available. Our results guide the implementation of future adherence monitoring interventions found in randomized trials to have health benefit