Asymptotically Unambitious Artificial General Intelligence

General intelligence, the ability to solve arbitrary solvable problems, is supposed by many to be artificially constructible. Narrow intelligence, the ability to solve a given particularly difficult problem, has seen impressive recent development. Notable examples include self-driving cars, Go engines, image classifiers, and translators. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) presents dangers that narrow intelligence does not: if something smarter than us across every domain were indifferent to our concerns, it would be an existential threat to humanity, just as we threaten many species despite no ill will. Even the theory of how to maintain the alignment of an AGI's goals with our own has proven highly elusive. We present the first algorithm we are aware of for asymptotically unambitious AGI, where "unambitiousness" includes not seeking arbitrary power. Thus, we identify an exception to the Instrumental Convergence Thesis, which is roughly that by default, an AGI would seek power, including over us.Comment: 9 pages with 5 figures; 10 page Appendix with 2 figure

MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.Comment: 28 page

Nucleate pool boiling investigation on a silicon test section with micro-fabricated cavities

The basic mechanisms of nucleate boiling are still not completely understood, in spite of the many numerical and experimental studies dedicated to the topic. The use of a hybrid code allows reasonable computational times for simulations of a solid plate with a large population of artificial micro-cavities with fixed distribution. This paper analyses the guidelines for the design, through numerical simulations, of the location and sizes of micro-fabricated cavities on a new silicon test section immersed in FC-72 at the saturation temperature for different pressures with an imposed heat flux applied at the back of the plate. Particular focus is on variations of wall temperature around nucleation sites

Generation of second mode solitary waves by the interaction of a first mode soliton with a sill

International audienceResults of an experimental and theoretical study of the interaction of a first mode internal solitary wave with a localised bottom topography (sill) are presented. Laboratory experiments have been performed in a 10m long and 0.33m wide channel filled with a stratified fluid. The interface between the two layers (fresh and salt water) is diffuse and has a finite thickness. Soliton-type disturbances of the interface having characteristics of the first baroclinic mode are generated at one channel end. They move along the channel and encounter an underwater obstacle (sill) in the middle of the channel, where they break into reflected and transmitted waves. Two types of internal waves are produced by the interaction: a fast first mode internal soliton and a slower (by a factor of approximately 3) second mode soliton-like wave. A numerical model, based on the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the Boussinesq approximation, is used tore produce the laboratory experiment. The detailed analysis of the horizontal and vertical structures of transmitted and reflected waves showed that the fast reflected and transmitted waves observed in the experiment can be interpreted as a first mode internal solitary wave whose characteristics are very close to those of the K-dV solitons. It is also demonstrated that the slow speed waves, generated during the interaction behind the first fast wave have vertical and horizontal structures very close to the second mode internal K-dV solitons

Numerical modelling of disintegration of basin-scale internal waves in a tank filled with stratified water

We present the results of numerical experiments performed with the use of a fully non-linear non-hydrostatic numerical model to study the baroclinic response of a long narrow tank filled with stratified water to an initially tilted interface. Upon release, the system starts to oscillate with an eigen frequency corresponding to basin-scale baroclinic gravitational seiches. Field observations suggest that the disintegration of basin-scale internal waves into packets of solitary waves, shear instabilities, billows and spots of mixed water are important mechanisms for the transfer of energy within stratified lakes. Laboratory experiments performed by D. A. Horn, J. Imberger and G. N. Ivey (JFM, 2001) reproduced several regimes, which include damped linear waves and solitary waves. The generation of billows and shear instabilities induced by the basin-scale wave was, however, not sufficiently studied. The developed numerical model computes a variety of flows, which were not observed with the experimental set-up. In particular, the model results showed that under conditions of low dissipation, the regimes of billows and supercritical flows may transform into a solitary wave regime. The obtained results can help in the interpretation of numerous observations of mixing processes in real lakes

Anisotropic damage mechanics for viscoelastic ice

We present a formulation of continuum damage in glacier ice that incorporates the induced anisotropy of the damage effects but restricts these formally to orthotropy. Damage is modeled by a symmetric second rank tensor that structurally plays the role of an internal variable. It may be interpreted as a texture measure that quantifies the effective specific areas over which internal stresses can be transmitted. The evolution equation for the damage tensor is motivated in the reference configuration and pushed forward to the present configuration. A spatially objective constitutive form of the evolution equation for the damage tensor is obtained. The rheology of the damaged ice presumes no volume conservation. Its constitutive relations are derived from the free enthalpy and a dissipation potential, and extends the classical isotropic power law by elastic and damage tensor dependent terms. All constitutive relations are in conformity with the second law of thermodynamic

A viscoelastic Rivlin-Ericksen material model applicable to glacier ice

We present a viscoelastic constitutive relation which describes transient creep of a modified second grade fluid enhanced with elastic properties of a solid. The material law describes a Rivlin-Ericksen material and is a generalization of existing material laws applied to study the viscoelastic properties of ice. The intention is to provide a formulation tailored to reproduce the viscoelastic behaviour of ice ranging from the instantaneous elastic response, to recoverable deformation, to viscous, stationary flow at the characteristic minimum creep rate associated with the deformation of polycrystalline ice. We numerically solve the problem of a slab of material shearing down a uniformly inclined plate. The equations are made dimensionless in a form in which elastic effects and/or the influence of higher order terms (i.e., strain accelerations) can be compared with viscous creep at the minimum creep rate by means of two dimensionless parameters. We discuss the resulting material behaviour and the features exhibited at different parameter combinations. Also, a viable range of the non-dimensional parameters is estimated in the scale analysis

Modelling debris flows down general channels

This paper is an extension of the single-phase cohesionless dry granular avalanche model over curved and twisted channels proposed by Pudasaini and Hutter (2003). It is a generalisation of the Savage and Hutter (1989, 1991) equations based on simple channel topography to a two-phase fluid-solid mixture of debris material. Important terms emerging from the correct treatment of the kinematic and dynamic boundary condition, and the variable basal topography are systematically taken into account. For vanishing fluid contribution and torsion-free channel topography our new model equations exactly degenerate to the previous Savage-Hutter model equations while such a degeneration was not possible by the Iverson and Denlinger (2001) model, which, in fact, also aimed to extend the Savage and Hutter model. The model equations of this paper have been rigorously derived; they include the effects of the curvature and torsion of the topography, generally for arbitrarily curved and twisted channels of variable channel width. The equations are put into a standard conservative form of partial differential equations. From these one can easily infer the importance and influence of the pore-fluid-pressure distribution in debris flow dynamics. The solid-phase is modelled by applying a Coulomb dry friction law whereas the fluid phase is assumed to be an incompressible Newtonian fluid. Input parameters of the equations are the internal and bed friction angles of the solid particles, the viscosity and volume fraction of the fluid, the total mixture density and the pore pressure distribution of the fluid at the bed. Given the bed topography and initial geometry and the initial velocity profile of the debris mixture, the model equations are able to describe the dynamics of the depth profile and bed parallel depth-averaged velocity distribution from the initial position to the final deposit. A shock capturing, total variation diminishing numerical scheme is implemented to solve the highly non-linear equations. Simulation results present the combined effects of curvature, torsion and pore pressure on the dynamics of the flow over a general basal topography. These simulation results reveal new physical insight of debris flows over such non-trivial topography. Model equations are applied to laboratory avalanche and debris-flow-flume tests. Very good agreement between the theory and experiments is established