Statistical Meta-Analysis of Risk Factors for Endometrial Can cer and Development of a Risk Prediction Model Using an Artificial Neural Network Algorithm

Objectives: In this study we wished to determine the rank order of risk factors for endometrial cancer and calculate a pooled risk and percentage risk for each factor using a statistical meta-analysis approach. The next step was to design a neural network computer model to predict the overall increase or decreased risk of cancer for individual patients. This would help to determine whether this prediction could be used as a tool to decide if a patient should be considered for testing and to predict diagnosis, as well as to suggest prevention measures to patients. Design: A meta-analysis of existing data was carried out to calculate relative risk, followed by design and implementation of a risk prediction computational model based on a neural network algorithm. Setting: Meta-analysis data were collated from various settings from around the world. Primary data to test the model were collected from a hospital clinic setting. Participants: Data from 40 patients notes currently suspected of having endometrial cancer and undergoing investigations and treatment were collected to test the software with their cancer diagnosis not revealed to the software developers. Main outcome measures: The forest plots allowed an overall relative risk and percentage risk to be calculated from all the risk data gathered from the studies. A neural network computational model to determine percentage risk for individual patients was developed, implemented, and evaluated. Results: The results show that the greatest percentage increased risk was due to BMI being above 25, with the risk increasing as BMI increases. A BMI of 25 or over gave an increased risk of 2.01%, a BMI of 30 or over gave an increase of 5.24%, and a BMI of 40 or over led to an increase of 6.9%. PCOS was the second highest increased risk at 4.2%. Diabetes, which is incidentally also linked to an increased BMI, gave a significant increased risk along with null parity and noncontinuous HRT of 1.54%, 1.2%, and 0.56% respectively. Decreased risk due to contraception was greatest with IUD (intrauterine device) and IUPD (intrauterine progesterone device) at −1.34% compared to −0.9% with oral. Continuous HRT at −0.75% and parity at −0.9% also decreased the risk. Using open-source patient data to test our computational model to determine risk, our results showed that the model is 98.6% accurate with an algorithm sensitivity 75% on average. Conclusions: In this study, we successfully determined the rank order of risk factors for endometrial cancer and calculated a pooled risk and risk percentage for each factor using a statistical meta-analysis approach. Then, using a computer neural network model system, we were able to model the overall increase or decreased risk of cancer and predict the cancer diagnosis for particular patients to an accuracy of over 98%. The neural network model developed in this study was shown to be a potentially useful tool in determining the percentage risk and predicting the possibility of a given patient developing endometrial cancer. As such, it could be a useful tool for clinicians to use in conjunction with other biomarkers in determining which patients warrant further preventative interventions to avert progressing to endometrial cancer. This result would allow for a reduction in the number of unnecessary invasive tests on patients. The model may also be used to suggest interventions to decrease the risk for a particular patient. The sensitivity of the model limits it at this stage due to the small percentage of positive cases in the datasets; however, since this model utilizes a neural network machine learning algorithm, it can be further improved by providing the system with more and larger datasets to allow further refinement of the neural network

BMQ

BMQ: Boston Medical Quarterly was published from 1950-1966 by the Boston University School of Medicine and the Massachusetts Memorial Hospitals

Substantiating a political public sphere in the Scottish press : a comparative analysis

This article uses content analysis to characterize the performance of the media in a national public sphere, by setting apart those qualities that typify internal press coverage of a political event. The article looks at the coverage of the 1999 devolved Scottish election from the day before the election until the day after. It uses a word count to measure the election material in Scottish newspapers the Herald, the Press and Journal and the Scotsman, and United Kingdom newspapers the Guardian, the Independent and The Times, and categorizes that material according to discourse type, day and page selection. The article finds a number of qualities that typify the Scottish sample in particular, and might be broadly indicative of a political public sphere in action. Firstly, and not unexpectedly, it finds that the Scottish newspapers carry significantly more election coverage. Just as tellingly, though, the article finds that the Scottish papers offer a greater proportion of advice and background information, in the form of opinion columns and feature articles. It also finds that the Scottish papers place a greater concentration of both informative and evaluative material in the period before the vote, consistent with their making a contribution to informed political action. Lastly, the article finds that the Scottish sample situates coverage nearer the front of the paper and places a greater proportion on recto pages. The article therefore argues that the Scottish papers display features that distinguish them from the UK papers, and are broadly consistent with their forming part of a deliberative public sphere, and suggests that these qualities might be explored as a means of judging future media performance

Using routine inpatient data to identify patients at risk of hospital readmission

Background: A relatively small percentage of patients with chronic medical conditions account for a much larger percentage of inpatient costs. There is some evidence that case-management can improve health and quality-of-life and reduce the number of times these patients are readmitted. To assess whether a statistical algorithm, based on routine inpatient data, can be used to identify patients at risk of readmission and who would therefore benefit from case-management

The Dynamics of EBV Shedding Implicate a Central Role for Epithelial Cells in Amplifying Viral Output

To develop more detailed models of EBV persistence we have studied the dynamics of virus shedding in healthy carriers. We demonstrate that EBV shedding into saliva is continuous and rapid such that the virus level is replaced in ≤2 minutes, the average time that a normal individual swallows. Thus, the mouth is not a reservoir of virus but a conduit through which a continuous flow stream of virus passes in saliva. Consequently, virus is being shed at a much higher rate than previously thought, a level too high to be accounted for by replication in B cells in Waldeyer's ring alone. Virus shedding is relatively stable over short periods (hours-days) but varies through 3.5 to 5.5 logs over longer periods, a degree of variation that also cannot be accounted for solely by replication in B cells. This variation means, contrary to what is generally believed, that the definition of high and low shedder is not so much a function of variation between individuals but within individuals over time. The dynamics of shedding describe a process governing virus production that is occurring independently ≤3 times at any moment. This process grows exponentially and is then randomly terminated. We propose that these dynamics are best explained by a model where single B cells sporadically release virus that infects anywhere from 1 to 5 epithelial cells. This infection spreads at a constant exponential rate and is terminated randomly, resulting in infected plaques of epithelial cells ranging in size from 1 to 105 cells. At any one time there are a very small number (≤3) of plaques. We suggest that the final size of these plaques is a function of the rate of infectious spread within the lymphoepithelium which may be governed by the structural complexity of the tissue but is ultimately limited by the immune response

Viscum album L. extracts in breast and gynaecological cancers: a systematic review of clinical and preclinical research

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Viscum album </it>L. extracts (VAE, European mistletoe) are a widely used medicinal plant extract in gynaecological and breast-cancer treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Systematic review to evaluate clinical studies and preclinical research on the therapeutic effectiveness and biological effects of VAE on gynaecological and breast cancer. Search of databases, reference lists and expert consultations. Criteria-based assessment of methodological study quality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>19 randomized (RCT), 16 non-randomized (non-RCT) controlled studies, and 11 single-arm cohort studies were identified that investigated VAE treatment of breast or gynaecological cancer. They included 2420, 6399 and 1130 patients respectively. 8 RCTs and 8 non-RCTs were embedded in the same large epidemiological cohort study. 9 RCTs and 13 non-RCTs assessed survival; 12 reported a statistically significant benefit, the others either a trend or no difference. 3 RCTs and 6 non-RCTs assessed tumour behaviour (remission or time to relapse); 3 reported statistically significant benefit, the others either a trend, no difference or mixed results. Quality of life (QoL) and tolerability of chemotherapy, radiotherapy or surgery was assessed in 15 RCTs and 9 non-RCTs. 21 reported a statistically significant positive result, the others either a trend, no difference, or mixed results. Methodological quality of the studies differed substantially; some had major limitations, especially RCTs on survival and tumour behaviour had very small sample sizes. Some recent studies, however, especially on QoL were reasonably well conducted. Single-arm cohort studies investigated tumour behaviour, QoL, pharmacokinetics and safety of VAE. Tumour remission was observed after high dosage and local application. VAE application was well tolerated. 34 animal experiments investigated VAE and isolated or recombinant compounds in various breast and gynaecological cancer models in mice and rats. VAE showed increase of survival and tumour remission especially in mice, while application in rats as well as application of VAE compounds had mixed results. <it>In vitro </it>VAE and its compounds have strong cytotoxic effects on cancer cells.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>VAE shows some positive effects in breast and gynaecological cancer. More research into clinical efficacy is warranted.</p

25th Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting: CNS-2016

Abstracts of the 25th Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting: CNS-2016 Seogwipo City, Jeju-do, South Korea. 2–7 July 201

25th annual computational neuroscience meeting: CNS-2016

The same neuron may play different functional roles in the neural circuits to which it belongs. For example, neurons in the Tritonia pedal ganglia may participate in variable phases of the swim motor rhythms [1]. While such neuronal functional variability is likely to play a major role the delivery of the functionality of neural systems, it is difficult to study it in most nervous systems. We work on the pyloric rhythm network of the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion (STG) [2]. Typically network models of the STG treat neurons of the same functional type as a single model neuron (e.g. PD neurons), assuming the same conductance parameters for these neurons and implying their synchronous firing [3, 4]. However, simultaneous recording of PD neurons shows differences between the timings of spikes of these neurons. This may indicate functional variability of these neurons. Here we modelled separately the two PD neurons of the STG in a multi-neuron model of the pyloric network. Our neuron models comply with known correlations between conductance parameters of ionic currents. Our results reproduce the experimental finding of increasing spike time distance between spikes originating from the two model PD neurons during their synchronised burst phase. The PD neuron with the larger calcium conductance generates its spikes before the other PD neuron. Larger potassium conductance values in the follower neuron imply longer delays between spikes, see Fig. 17.Neuromodulators change the conductance parameters of neurons and maintain the ratios of these parameters [5]. Our results show that such changes may shift the individual contribution of two PD neurons to the PD-phase of the pyloric rhythm altering their functionality within this rhythm. Our work paves the way towards an accessible experimental and computational framework for the analysis of the mechanisms and impact of functional variability of neurons within the neural circuits to which they belong