Ground motion estimation and nonlinear seismic analysis

Site specific predictions of the dynamic response of structures to extreme earthquake ground motions are a critical component of seismic design for important structures. With the rapid development of computationally based methodologies and powerful computers over the past few years, engineers and scientists now have the capability to perform numerical simulations of many of the physical processes associated with the generation of earthquake ground motions and dynamic structural response. This paper describes application of a physics based, deterministic, computational approach for estimation of earthquake ground motions which relies on site measurements of frequently occurring small (i.e. M < 3 ) earthquakes. Case studies are presented which illustrate application of this methodology for two different sites, and nonlinear analyses of a typical six story steel frame office building are performed to illustrate the potential sensitivity of nonlinear response to site conditions and proximity to the causative fault

Gravitationally lensed QSOs in the ISSIS/WSO-UV era

Gravitationally lensed QSOs (GLQs) at redshift z = 1-2 play a key role in understanding the cosmic evolution of the innermost parts of active galaxies (black holes, accretion disks, coronas and internal jets), as well as the structure of galaxies at intermediate redshifts. With respect to studies of normal QSOs, GLQ programmes have several advantages. For example, a monitoring of GLQs may lead to unambiguous detections of intrinsic and extrinsic variations. Both kinds of variations can be used to discuss central engines in distant QSOs, and mass distributions and compositions of lensing galaxies. In this context, UV data are of particular interest, since they correspond to emissions from the immediate surroundings of the supermassive black hole. We describe some observation strategies to analyse optically bright GLQs at z of about 1.5, using ISSIS (CfS) on board World Space Observatory-Ultraviolet.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

Magnetization steps in a diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain: Theory and experiments on TMMC:Cd

A theory for the equilibrium low-temperature magnetization M of a diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain is presented. The magnetization curve, M versus B, is calculated using the exact contributions of finite chains with 1 to 5 spins, and the "rise and ramp approximation" for longer chains. Some non-equilibrium effects that occur in a rapidly changing B, are also considered. Specific non-equilibrium models based on earlier treatments of the phonon bottleneck, and of spin flips associated with cross relaxation and with level crossings, are discussed. Magnetization data on powders of TMMC diluted with cadmium [i.e., (CH_3)_4NMn_xCd_(1-x)Cl_3, with 0.16<=x<=0.50 were measured at 0.55 K in 18 T superconducting magnets. The field B_1 at the first MST from pairs is used to determine the NN exchange constant, J, which changes from -5.9 K to -6.5 K as x increases from 0.16 to 0.50. The magnetization curves obtained in the superconducting magnets are compared with simulations based on the equilibrium theory. Data for the differential susceptibility, dM/dB, were taken in pulsed magnetic fields (7.4 ms duration) up to 50 T, with the powder samples in a 1.5 K liquid-helium bath. Non-equilibrium effects, which became more severe as x decreased, were observed. The non-equilibrium effects are tentatively interpreted using the "Inadequate Heat Flow Scenario," or to cross-relaxation, and crossings of energy levels, including those of excited states.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figure

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors�the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25 over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8 (95 CI 56·6�58·8) of global deaths and 41·2 (39·8�42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million 192·7 million to 231·1 million global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million 134·2 million to 163·1 million), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million 125·1 million to 163·5 million), high BMI (120·1 million 83·8 million to 158·4 million), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million 103·9 million to 123·4 million), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million 90·8 million to 115·1 million), high total cholesterol (88·7 million 74·6 million to 105·7 million), household air pollution (85·6 million 66·7 million to 106·1 million), alcohol use (85·0 million 77·2 million to 93·0 million), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million 49·3 million to 127·5 million). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Independent seismic evaluation of the 24-580-980 south connector ramps

The interchange for highways 24, 580, and 980 (the Stack) in Oakland, California, lies 4.3 km from the surface expression of the Hayward fault and 26 km from the San Andreas fault. The purpose of this project is to compute realistic, linear, strong ground motion (rock outcrop motion) likely to affect this interchange during a hazardous earth-quake on the Hayward fault. With the exception of very long period ( >20 sec) motion, the Hayward fault will be the controlling deterministic ground motion hazard to this structure. We identified a magnitude M = 7.25 earthquake that ruptures 82 km of the Hayward fault as the principal hazard to the Stack; it has a moment of 8.5 x 10{sup 26} dyne-cm. Moment magnitudes (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979) are used in this report. Our goal is to produce realistic synthesized ground motion for three components and the full wavetrain and for frequencies from 0.05 to 33.0 Hz

How can science contribute to an ecosystem approach to pelagic, demersal and rock lobster fisheries in South Africa ?

South Africa is committed to moving towards an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) and has laid the foundations for this using a three-pronged approach: through a project (EAF Feasibility Study) under the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem Programme; through a dedicated scientific working group established by the Marine and Coastal Management branch of South Africa's Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism; and through collaborative scientific and modelling studies within the joint French-South African 'Upwelling Ecosystems' Programme. This contribution provides an overview of the progress made towards developing an EAF in South Africa, both on the scientific front in terms of improved understanding of the functioning of the Benguela ecosystem and the ways in which its ecosystem components interact, and regarding the practical ways being explored to enable scientific advice to feed in to South African fisheries management while taking into account broad stakeholder concerns. The paper focusses particularly on the role played by scientific contributions (research and monitoring) to address these ecosystem issues in three important South African fisheries - pelagic, demersal and rock lobster - so that the appropriate management measures can be put into place. Socio-economic concerns are included for the rock lobster fishery

Predictive Value of PET Response Combined with Baseline Metabolic Tumor Volume in Peripheral T-Cell Lymphoma Patients.

Peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) is a heterogeneous group of aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphomas with poor outcomes on current therapy. We investigated whether response assessed with PET/CT combined with baseline total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV) could detect early relapse or refractory disease. Methods: From 7 European centers, 140 patients with nodal PTCL who underwent baseline PET/CT were selected. Forty-three had interim PET (iPET) performed after 2 cycles (iPET2), 95 had iPET performed after 3 or 4 cycles (iPET3/4), and 96 had end-of-treatment PET (eotPET). Baseline TMTV was computed with a 41% SUV &lt;sub&gt;max&lt;/sub&gt; threshold, and PET response was reported using the Deauville 5-point scale. Results: With a median of 43 mo of follow-up, the 2-y progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 51% and 67%, respectively. iPET2-positive patients (Deauville score ≥ 4) had a significantly worse outcome than iPET2-negative patients (P &lt; 0.0001, hazard ratio of 6.8 for PFS; P &lt; 0.0001, hazard ratio of 6.6 for OS). The value of iPET3/4 was also confirmed for PFS (P &lt; 0.0001) and OS (P &lt; 0.0001). The 2-y PFS and OS for iPET3/4-positive (n = 28) and iPET3/4-negative (n = 67) patients were 16% and 32% versus 75% and 85%, respectively. The eotPET results also reflected patient outcome. A model combining TMTV and iPET3/4 stratified the population into distinct risk groups (TMTV ≤ 230 cm &lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and iPET3/4-negative [2-y PFS/OS, 79%/85%]; TMTV &gt; 230 cm &lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and iPET3/4-negative [59%/84%]; TMTV ≤ 230 cm &lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and iPET3/4-positive [42%/50%]; TMTV &gt; 230 cm &lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and iPET3/4-positive [0%/18%]). Conclusion: iPET response is predictive of outcome and allows early detection of high-risk PTCL patients. Combining iPET with TMTV improves risk stratification in individual patients