A randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of minocycline and/or Omega-3 fatty acids added to treatment as usual for At Risk Mental States (NAYAB): study protocol

Background The At Risk Mental State (ARMS) describes individuals at high risk of developing schizophrenia or psychosis. The use of antipsychotics in this population is not supported because most individuals with ARMS are unlikely to develop psychosis. Anti-inflammatory treatments and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) may have some beneficial effects in the treatment of ARMS. There have been no controlled clinical trials that have investigated the use of minocycline for ARMS and no trials involving PUFAs in combination with other proposed treatments. There is a need to find effective, tolerable and inexpensive interventions for ARMS that are available both in high, low and middle-income countries. Methods A six-month intervention study of minocycline and/or Omega-3 fatty acids added to treatment as usual (TAU) in patients with ARMS will be conducted in Pakistan using a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind factorial design. 320 consenting patients with capacity will be recruited from community, general practitioner clinics and psychiatric units. Allowing for a 25% dropout rate, we will recruit 59 completing participants to each study arm, and 236 will complete in total. We will determine whether the addition of minocycline and/or Omega-3 fatty acids to TAU attenuates rate of transition from ARMS to first-episode psychosis and improves symptoms and/or level of functioning in ARMS. We will also investigate whether any candidate risk factors such as negative symptoms, influence treatment response in the ARMS group. The primary efficacy end-point is conversion to psychotic disorder at 12 months post study entry. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat, using analysis-of variance, chi-squared tests and adjusted odds ratios to assess between-group differences. Cox regression analyses will be used to analyse potential between-group differences in time-to-onset of psychosis. Discussion The outcomes of this trial will provide evidence of the potential benefits of minocycline and PUFAs in the treatment of ARMS. Both minocycline and PUFAs are inexpensive are readily available in low/middle-income countries such as Pakistan, and if evidenced, may prove to be safe and effective for treating ARMS

Cost-Effectiveness of a Culturally Adapted Manual-Assisted Brief Psychological Intervention for Self-Harm in Pakistan: A Secondary Analysis of the Culturally Adapted Manual-Assisted Problem-Solving Training Randomized Controlled Trial

Objectives Self-harm is a serious public health problem. A culturally adapted manual-assisted problem-solving training (C-MAP) intervention improved and sustained the reduction in suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression compared with treatment as usual (TAU) alone. Here, we evaluate its cost-effectiveness. Methods Patients admitted after an episode of self-harm were randomized individually to either C-MAP plus TAU or TAU alone in Karachi. Improvement in health-related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was measured using the Euro Qol-5D-3L instrument at baseline and at 3 months and 6 months after randomization. The primary economic outcome was health service cost per QALY gained as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, based on 2019 US dollars and a 6-month time horizon. Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to assess uncertainties, and sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of hospitalization costs. Results A total of 108 and 113 participants were enrolled among the intervention and standard arms, respectively. The intervention resulted in 0.04 more QALYs (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.00–0.08) 6 months after enrolment. The mean cost per participant in the intervention arm was US $1001 (95$640 (95% CI 595–679). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the C-MAP intervention versus TAU was US $16 254 (95$20 000 and US $30 000. Cost-effectiveness results remained robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusions C-MAP may be a valuable self-harm intervention. Further studies with longer follow-up and larger sample sizes are needed to draw reliable conclusions

A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of minocycline and/or omega-3 fatty acids added to treatment as usual for at-risk mental states (NAYAB): study protocol

Abstract Background The at-risk mental state (ARMS) describes individuals at high risk of developing schizophrenia or psychosis. The use of antipsychotics in this population is not supported, because most individuals with ARMS are unlikely to develop psychosis. Anti-inflammatory treatments and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) may have some beneficial effects in the treatment of ARMS. There have been no controlled clinical trials in which researchers have investigated the use of minocycline for ARMS and no trials involving PUFAs in combination with other proposed treatments. There is a need to find effective, tolerable and inexpensive interventions for individuals with ARMS that are available in high-, low- and middle-income countries. Methods/design A 6-month intervention study of minocycline and/or omega-3 fatty acids added to treatment as usual (TAU) in patients with ARMS will be conducted in Pakistan using a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind factorial design. A total of 320 consenting patients with capacity will be recruited from the community, general practitioner clinics and psychiatric units. Allowing for a 25% dropout rate, we will recruit 59 completing participants into each study arm, and in total 236 will complete the study. We will determine whether the addition of minocycline and/or omega-3 fatty acids to TAU attenuates the rate of transition from ARMS to first-episode psychosis and improves symptoms and/or level of functioning in ARMS. We will also investigate whether any candidate risk factors, such as negative symptoms, influence treatment response in the ARMS group. The primary efficacy endpoint is conversion to psychotic disorder at 12 months after study entry. Analysis will be done according to the intention to treat principle using analysis of variance, chi-square tests and adjusted ORs to assess between-group differences. Cox regression analysis will be used to evaluate potential between-group differences in time to onset of psychosis. Discussion The outcomes of this trial will provide evidence of the potential benefits of minocycline and PUFAs in the treatment of ARMS. Both minocycline and PUFAs are inexpensive, are readily available in low-/middle-income countries such as Pakistan, and if proven, may be safe and effective for treating individuals with ARMS. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02569307 . Registered on 3 October 2015

A randomised double-blind placebo-controlled 12- week feasibility trial of methotrexate added to treatment as usual in early schizophrenia: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Methotrexate is a commonly used anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive drug. There is growing evidence that inflammatory processes are involved in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. In our recent randomised double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial in Pakistan and Brazil, the addition of minocycline (antibiotic and anti-inflammatory drug) for 1 year to treatment as usual reduced negative symptoms and improved some cognitive measures. A meta-analysis of cytokine changes in the peripheral blood has identified IL-2, IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha and soluble IL-2 receptor as trait markers of schizophrenia because their levels were elevated during acute exacerbations and reduced in remission. This suggests immune activation and an inflammatory syndrome in schizophrenia. Based on the evidence of the strong anti-inflammatory properties of methotrexate, we propose that low-dose methotrexate may be an effective therapy in early schizophrenia. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a double-blind placebo-controlled study of methotrexate added to treatment as usual for patients suffering from schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, psychosis not otherwise specified or schizophreniform disorder. This will be with 72 patients, 36 in each arm over 3 months. There will be screening, randomisation and follow-up visits. Full clinical assessments will be carried out at baseline, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks. Social and cognitive assessments will be carried out at baseline and 12 weeks. Methotrexate will be given at a dose of 10 mgs orally once a week for a 3-month period. DISCUSSION: Evidence suggests inflammatory processes are involved in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia and anti-inflammatory treatments have shown to have some beneficial effects. Methotrexate is a known immunosuppressant and anti-inflammatory drug. The aim of this study is to establish the degree of improvement in positive and negative symptoms, as well as cognitive functioning with the addition of methotrexate to treatment as usual. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02074319 (24 February 2014)

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research