MULE DEER POPULATION DYNAMICS IN SPACE AND TIME: ECOLOGICAL MODELING TOOLS FOR MANAGING UNGULATES

Ecologists aim to understand and predict the effect of management actions on population dynamics of animals, a difficult task in highly variable environments. Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) occupy such variable environments and display volatile population dynamics, providing a challenging management scenario. I first investigate the ecological drivers of overwinter juvenile survival, the most variable life stage in this ungulate. I tested for both direct and indirect effects of spring and fall phenology on winter survival of 2,315 mule deer fawns from 1998 – 2011 across a wide range of environmental conditions in Idaho, USA. I showed that early winter precipitation and direct and indirect effects of spring and especially fall plant productivity (NDVI) accounted for 45% of observed variation in overwinter survival. I next develop predictive models of overwinter survival for 2,529 fawns within 11 Population Management Units in Idaho, 2003 – 2013. I used Bayesian hierarchical survival models to estimate survival from remotely-sensed measures of summer NDVI and winter snow conditions (MODIS snow and SNODAS). The multi-scale analysis produced well performing models, predicting out-of-sample data with a validation R2 of 0.66. Next, I ask how predation risk and deer density influences neonatal fawn survival. I developed a spatial coyote predation risk model and tested the effect on fawn mortality. I then regressed both total fawn mortality and coyote-caused mortality on mule deer density to test the predation-risk hypothesis that coyote predation risk increased as deer density increased as low predation risk habitats were filled, forcing maternal females to use high predation risk habitats. Fawn mortality did not increase with density, but coyote predation increased with increasing deer density, confirming density-dependence in fawn mortality was driven by coyote behavior, not density per se. Finally, I use integrated population models (IPM) to collate the previous findings into a model that simultaneously estimates all mule deer vital rates to test ecological questions concerning population drivers. I test whether density-dependence or environmental stochasticity (weather) drives mule deer population dynamics. The vital rate most influenced by density was recruitment, yet across most populations, weather was the predominant force affecting mule deer dynamics. These IPM’s will provide managers with a means to estimate population dynamics with precision and flexibility

Optimizing Wildlife Monitoirng Strategies in a Dynamic Setting (Poster)

Long term, broadly distributed datasets are ideal for effective wildlife management.  However, collecting and utilizing these data present a variety of challenges to management agencies.  Idaho Department of Fish and Game is currently trying to optimize their use of monitoring resources for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) throughout Idaho.  Three areas are being investigated for their potential to accomplish this goal: cost effectiveness, data utilization, and efficiency in data collection.  An analysis of the cost effectiveness of monitoring methods is currently being conducted.  This analysis varies the amount of each type of data available to the population model used to estimate abundance.  The precision, credible interval width (CRI), associated with the estimate is used as the measure of effectiveness, mean 95% CRIs range from 9278 - 9804.  This measure of precision is then combined with the cost of the collection technique to compare the cost effectiveness of different monitoring methods.  Further research will focus on a weighting scheme that weights data types by both sampling precision and reliability.  Thereby allowing managers to fully utilize all available data sources based on relative quality within the framework of the population model.  A third line of research focuses on increasing the efficiency of monitoring effort through an alternative sampling design derived from seasonal nutrition.  The previous lines of research will then be combined to solve a dynamic programming problem to determine the optimal methods for monitoring population abundance while accounting for changes in the availability of monitoring resources over space and time

Core radius evolution of star clusters

We use N-body simulations of star clusters to investigate the possible dynamical origins of the observed spread in core radius among intermediate-age and old star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Two effects are considered, a time-varying external tidal field and variations in primordial hard binary fraction. Simulations of clusters orbiting a point-mass galaxy show similar core radius evolution for clusters on both circular and elliptical orbits and we therefore conclude that the tidal field of the LMC has not yet significantly influenced the evolution of the intermediate-age clusters. The presence of large numbers of hard primordial binaries in a cluster leads to core radius expansion; however, the magnitude of the effect is insufficient to explain the observations. Further, the range of binary fractions required to produce significant core radius growth is inconsistent with the observational evidence that all the LMC clusters have similar stellar luminosity functions.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Ready Worker One? High-Res VR for the Home Office

Many employees prefer to work from home, yet struggle to squeeze their office into an already fully-utilized space. Virtual Reality (VR) seemingly offered a solution with its ability to transform even modest physical spaces into spacious, productive virtual offices, but hardware challenges---such as low resolution---have prevented this from becoming a reality. Now that hardware issues are being overcome, we are able to investigate the suitability of VR for daily work. To do so, we (1) studied the physical space that users typically dedicate to home offices and (2) conducted an exploratory study of users working in VR for one week. For (1) we used digital ethnography to study 430 self-published images of software developer workstations in the home, confirming that developers faced myriad space challenges. We used speculative design to re-envision these as VR workstations, eliminating many challenges. For (2) we asked 10 developers to work in their own home using VR for about two hours each day for four workdays, and then interviewed them. We found that working in VR improved focus and made mundane tasks more enjoyable. While some subjects reported issues---annoyances with the fit, weight, and umbilical cord of the headset---the vast majority of these issues seem to be addressable. Together, these studies show VR technology has the potential to address many key problems with home workstations, and, with continued improvements, may become an integral part of creating an effective workstation in the home

Quality of life measurement clarifies the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication in peptic ulcer disease and uninvestigated dyspepsia 1

Previous economic studies of Helicobacter pylori eradication in dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease have not measured quality of life using utilities (preference probabilities), which are needed to compare the cost-effectiveness of such treatment to other health care interventions. The goals of this study were to measure quality of life in patients with dyspepsia or peptic ulcer and apply these measurements to published models of disease management to determine cost-effectiveness in dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Methods : Utilities for dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease were measured in adult patients (n = 73) on chronic acid suppression for peptic ulcer or ulcer-like dyspepsia. Median utility values were applied to the results of published cost-effectiveness analyses and a previously validated dyspepsia model. Cost-utility ratios for early H. pylori eradication in uninvestigated dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease were then computed. Results : The total disutility, or lost quality of life, for an ulcer was 0.11 QALY, of which 0.09 QALY was attributed to dyspeptic symptoms. After these results were incorporated into published studies, cost-utility ratios for ulcer treatment varied from $3,100 to$12,500 per QALY gained, whereas estimates for uninvestigated dyspepsia management ranged from $26,800 to$59,400 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated a range of $1,300 to$27,300 per QALY for management of duodenal ulcer and $15,000 to$129,700 per QALY for dyspepsia. Conclusions: Strategies that emphasize early H. pylori eradication were cost-effective for patients with peptic ulcer and possibly cost-effective for patients with uninvestigated dyspepsia, relative to other medical interventions. Dyspeptic symptoms cause significant disutility that should be incorporated in future cost-effectiveness analyses of treatment strategies.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73031/1/j.1572-0241.2001.03516.x.pd

The Prelude to and Aftermath of the Giant Flare of 2004 December 27: Persistent and Pulsed X-ray Properties of SGR 1806-20 from 1993 to 2005

On 2004 December 27, a highly-energetic giant flare was recorded from the magnetar candidate SGR 1806-20. In the months preceding this flare, the persistent X-ray emission from this object began to undergo significant changes. Here, we report on the evolution of key spectral and temporal parameters prior to and following this giant flare. Using the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer, we track the pulse frequency of SGR 1806-20 and find that the spin-down rate of this SGR varied erratically in the months before and after the flare. Contrary to the giant flare in SGR 1900+14, we find no evidence for a discrete jump in spin frequency at the time of the December 27th flare (|dnu/nu| < 5 X 10^-6). In the months surrounding the flare, we find a strong correlation between pulsed flux and torque consistent with the model for magnetar magnetosphere electrodynamics proposed by Thompson, Lyutikov & Kulkarni (2002). As with the flare in SGR 1900+14, the pulse morphology of SGR 1806-20 changes drastically following the flare. Using the Chandra X-ray Observatory and other publicly available imaging X-ray detector observations, we construct a spectral history of SGR 1806-20 from 1993 to 2005. The usual magnetar persistent emission spectral model of a power-law plus a blackbody provides an excellent fit to the data. We confirm the earlier finding by Mereghetti et al. (2005) of increasing spectral hardness of SGR 1806-20 between 1993 and 2004. Contrary to the direct correlation between torque and spectral hardness proposed by Mereghetti et al., we find evidence for a sudden torque change that triggered a gradual hardening of the energy spectrum on a timescale of years. Interestingly, the spectral hardness, spin-down rate, pulsed, and phase-averaged of SGR 1806-20 all peak months before the flare epoch.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, 8 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ. To appear in the Oct 20 2006 editio

Insulin signaling inhibits the 5-HT(2C )receptor in choroid plexus via MAP kinase

BACKGROUND: G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) interact with heterotrimeric GTP-binding proteins (G proteins) to modulate acute changes in intracellular messenger levels and ion channel activity. In contrast, long-term changes in cellular growth, proliferation and differentiation are often mediated by tyrosine kinase receptors and certain GPCRs by activation of mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinases. Complex interactions occur between these signaling pathways, but the specific mechanisms of such regulatory events are not well-understood. In particular it is not clear whether GPCRs are modulated by tyrosine kinase receptor-MAP kinase pathways. RESULTS: Here we describe tyrosine kinase receptor regulation of a GPCR via MAP kinase. Insulin reduced the activity of the 5-HT(2C )receptor in choroid plexus cells which was blocked by the MAP kinase kinase (MEK) inhibitor, PD 098059. We demonstrate that the inhibitory effect of insulin and insulin-like growth factor type 1 (IGF-1) on the 5-HT(2C )receptor is dependent on tyrosine kinase, RAS and MAP kinase. The effect may be receptor-specific: insulin had no effect on another GPCR that shares the same G protein signaling pathway as the 5-HT(2C )receptor. This effect is also direct: activated MAP kinase mimicked the effect of insulin, and removing a putative MAP kinase site from the 5-HT(2C )receptor abolished the effect of insulin. CONCLUSION: These results show that insulin signaling can inhibit 5-HT(2C )receptor activity and suggest that MAP kinase may play a direct role in regulating the function of a specific GPCR

Observations of the Prompt Gamma-Ray Emission of GRB 070125

The long, bright gamma-ray burst GRB 070125 was localized by the Interplanetary Network. We present light curves of the prompt gamma-ray emission as observed by Konus-WIND, RHESSI, Suzaku-WAM, and \textit{Swift}-BAT. We detail the results of joint spectral fits with Konus and RHESSI data. The burst shows moderate hard-to-soft evolution in its multi-peaked emission over a period of about one minute. The total burst fluence as observed by Konus is $1.79 \times 10^{-4}$ erg/cm$^2$ (20 keV--10 MeV). Using the spectroscopic redshift $z=1.548$, we find that the burst is consistent with the ``Amati'' $E_{peak,i}-E_{iso}$ correlation. Assuming a jet opening angle derived from broadband modeling of the burst afterglow, GRB 070125 is a significant outlier to the ``Ghirlanda'' $E_{peak,i}-E_\gamma$ correlation. Its collimation-corrected energy release $E_\gamma = 2.5 \times 10^{52}$ ergs is the largest yet observed.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures; accepted for publication in ApJ. Improved spectral fits and energetics estimate

The Locations of Gamma-Ray Bursts Measured by COMPTEL

The COMPTEL instrument on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory is used to measure the locations of gamma-ray bursts through direct imaging of MeV photons. In a comprehensive search, we have detected and localized 29 bursts observed between 1991 April 19 and 1995 May 31. The average location accuracy of these events is 1.25\arcdeg (1$\sigma$), including a systematic error of \sim0.5\arcdeg, which is verified through comparison with Interplanetary Network (IPN) timing annuli. The combination of COMPTEL and IPN measurements results in locations for 26 of the bursts with an average ``error box'' area of only $\sim$0.3 deg$^2$ (1$\sigma$). We find that the angular distribution of COMPTEL burst locations is consistent with large-scale isotropy and that there is no statistically significant evidence of small-angle auto-correlations. We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for burst repetition since no more than two of the events (or $\sim$7% of the 29 bursts) could possibly have come from the same source. We also find that there is no significant correlation between the burst locations and either Abell clusters of galaxies or radio-quiet quasars. Agreement between individual COMPTEL locations and IPN annuli places a lower limit of $\sim$100~AU (95% confidence) on the distance to the stronger bursts.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, 1998 Jan. 1, Vol. 492. 33 pages, 9 figures, 5 table