Dynamical percolation on general trees

H\"aggstr\"om, Peres, and Steif (1997) have introduced a dynamical version of percolation on a graph $G$. When $G$ is a tree they derived a necessary and sufficient condition for percolation to exist at some time $t$. In the case that $G$ is a spherically symmetric tree, H\"aggstr\"om, Peres, and Steif (1997) derived a necessary and sufficient condition for percolation to exist at some time $t$ in a given target set $D$. The main result of the present paper is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of percolation, at some time $t\in D$, in the case that the underlying tree is not necessary spherically symmetric. This answers a question of Yuval Peres (personal communication). We present also a formula for the Hausdorff dimension of the set of exceptional times of percolation.Comment: 24 pages; to appear in Probability Theory and Related Field

Handling qualities of a wide-body transport airplane utilizing Pitch Active Control Systems (PACS) for relaxed static stability application

Piloted simulation studies have been conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of two pitch active control systems (PACS) on the flying qualities of a wide-body transport airplane when operating at negative static margins. These two pitch active control systems consisted of a simple 'near-term' PACS and a more complex 'advanced' PACS. Eight different flight conditions, representing the entire flight envelope, were evaluated with emphasis on the cruise flight conditions. These studies were made utilizing the Langley Visual/Motion Simulator (VMS) which has six degrees of freedom. The simulation tests indicated that (1) the flying qualities of the baseline aircraft (PACS off) for the cruise and other high-speed flight conditions were unacceptable at center-of-gravity positions aft of the neutral static stability point; (2) within the linear static stability flight envelope, the near-term PACS provided acceptable flying qualities for static stabilty margins to -3 percent; and (3) with the advanced PACS operative, the flying qualities were demonstrated to be good (satisfactory to very acceptable) for static stabilty margins to -20 percent

Cognitive architectures as Lakatosian research programmes: two case studies

Cognitive architectures - task-general theories of the structure and function of the complete cognitive system - are sometimes argued to be more akin to frameworks or belief systems than scientific theories. The argument stems from the apparent non-falsifiability of existing cognitive architectures. Newell was aware of this criticism and argued that architectures should be viewed not as theories subject to Popperian falsification, but rather as Lakatosian research programs based on cumulative growth. Newell's argument is undermined because he failed to demonstrate that the development of Soar, his own candidate architecture, adhered to Lakatosian principles. This paper presents detailed case studies of the development of two cognitive architectures, Soar and ACT-R, from a Lakatosian perspective. It is demonstrated that both are broadly Lakatosian, but that in both cases there have been theoretical progressions that, according to Lakatosian criteria, are pseudo-scientific. Thus, Newell's defense of Soar as a scientific rather than pseudo-scientific theory is not supported in practice. The ACT series of architectures has fewer pseudo-scientific progressions than Soar, but it too is vulnerable to accusations of pseudo-science. From this analysis, it is argued that successive versions of theories of the human cognitive architecture must explicitly address five questions to maintain scientific credibility

Low Temperature Physics

Contains reports on six research projects

Global net carbon exchange and intra-annual atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted by an Ecosystem Process Model and Three-Dimensional Atmospheric Transport Model

A generalized terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC (for BIOME BioGeoChemical Cycles), was used to simulate the global fluxes of CO2 resulting from photosynthesis, autotrophic respiration, and heterotrophic respiration. Daily meteorological data for the year 1987, gridded to 1° by 1°, were used to drive the model simulations. From the maximum value of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for 1987, the leaf area index for each grid cell was computed. Global NPP was estimated to be 52 Pg C, and global Rh was estimated to be 66 Pg C. Model predictions of the stable carbon isotopic ratio 13C/12C for C3 and C4 vegetation were in accord with values published in the literature, suggesting that our computations of total net photosynthesis, and thus NPP, are more reliable than Rh. For each grid cell, daily Rh was adjusted so that the annual total was equal to annual NPP, and the resulting net carbon fluxes were used as inputs to a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM2) using wind data from 1987. We compared the spatial and seasonal patterns of NPP with a diagnostic NDVI model, where NPP was derived from biweekly NDVI data and Rh was tuned to fit atmospheric CO2 observations from three northern stations. To an encouraging degree, predictions from the BIOME-BGC model agreed in phase and amplitude with observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations for 20° to 55°N, the zone in which the most complete data on ecosystem processes and meteorological input data are available. However, in the tropics and high northern latitudes, disagreements between simulated and measured CO2 concentrations indicated areas where the model could be improved. We present here a methodology by which terrestrial ecosystem models can be tested globally, not by comparisons to homogeneous-plot data, but by seasonal and spatial consistency with a diagnostic NDVI model and atmospheric CO2 observations

What a difference a term makes:the effect of educational attainment on marital outcomes in the UK

Abstract In the past, students in England and Wales born within the first 5 monthsof the academic year could leave school one term earlier than those born later inthe year. Focusing on women, those who were required to stay on an extra termmore frequently hold some academic qualification. Using having been required tostay on as an exogenous factor affecting academic attainment, we find that holding alow-level academic qualification has no effect on the probability of being currentlymarried for women aged 25 or above, but increases the probability of the husbandholding some academic qualification and being economically active.33 Halama

Low-Temperature Physics

Contains reports on eight research projects

The Effect of Cone Opsin Mutations on Retinal Structure and the Integrity of the Photoreceptor Mosaic

Purpose. To evaluate retinal structure and photoreceptor mosaic integrity in subjects with OPN1LW and OPN1MW mutations. Methods. Eleven subjects were recruited, eight of whom have been previously described. Cone and rod density was measured using images of the photoreceptor mosaic obtained from an adaptive optics scanning light ophthalmoscope (AOSLO). Total retinal thickness, inner retinal thickness, and outer nuclear layer plus Henle fiber layer (ONL+HFL) thickness were measured using cross-sectional spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) images. Molecular genetic analyses were performed to characterize the OPN1LW/OPN1MW gene array. Results. While disruptions in retinal lamination and cone mosaic structure were observed in all subjects, genotype-specific differences were also observed. For example, subjects with “L/M interchange” mutations resulting from intermixing of ancestral OPN1LW and OPN1MW genes had significant residual cone structure in the parafovea (∼25% of normal), despite widespread retinal disruption that included a large foveal lesion and thinning of the parafoveal inner retina. These subjects also reported a later-onset, progressive loss of visual function. In contrast, subjects with the C203R missense mutation presented with congenital blue cone monochromacy, with retinal lamination defects being restricted to the ONL+HFL and the degree of residual cone structure (8% of normal) being consistent with that expected for the S-cone submosaic. Conclusions. The photoreceptor phenotype associated with OPN1LW and OPN1MW mutations is highly variable. These findings have implications for the potential restoration of visual function in subjects with opsin mutations. Our study highlights the importance of high-resolution phenotyping to characterize cellular structure in inherited retinal disease; such information will be critical for selecting patients most likely to respond to therapeutic intervention and for establishing a baseline for evaluating treatment efficacy

Sex differences in mathematics and reading achievement are inversely related: within- and across-nation assessment of 10 years of PISA data

We analyzed one decade of data collected by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), including the mathematics and reading performance of nearly 1.5 million 15 year olds in 75 countries. Across nations, boys scored higher than girls in mathematics, but lower than girls in reading. The sex difference in reading was three times as large as in mathematics. There was considerable variation in the extent of the sex differences between nations. There are countries without a sex difference in mathematics performance, and in some countries girls scored higher than boys. Boys scored lower in reading in all nations in all four PISA assessments (2000, 2003, 2006, 2009). Contrary to several previous studies, we found no evidence that the sex differences were related to nations’ gender equality indicators. Further, paradoxically, sex differences in mathematics were consistently and strongly inversely correlated with sex differences in reading: Countries with a smaller sex difference in mathematics had a larger sex difference in reading and vice versa. We demonstrate that this was not merely a between-nation, but also a within-nation effect. This effect is related to relative changes in these sex differences across the performance continuum: We did not find a sex difference in mathematics among the lowest performing students, but this is where the sex difference in reading was largest. In contrast, the sex difference in mathematics was largest among the higher performing students, and this is where the sex difference in reading was smallest. The implication is that if policy makers decide that changes in these sex differences are desired, different approaches will be needed to achieve this for reading and mathematics. Interventions that focus on high-achieving girls in mathematics and on low achieving boys in reading are likely to yield the strongest educational benefits