Empirical studies on economics of suicides and divorces

Abstract This thesis includes three separate empirical studies on economic demography and health economics. The first study explores the effect of alcohol consumption on divorce across 23 OECD countries during the period 1960–2010. We find strong evidence that alcohol consumption is a major socioeconomic factor which influences divorces in these countries. We find robust evidence on the relationship between alcohol consumption and divorce rates both in the short and long run. In addition, using worldwide survey data on values we explore whether the change in values with respect to marriage, and moral values can explain our findings. It is noteworthy, that alcohol consumption has a significant effect on divorces even after controlling for moral values. The second and third studies concentrate on the economics of suicide. In the second study, we explore the effects of unemployment on the well-being of the regional population with disaggregated suicide data across gender and age in Finland during 1991–2011. Our findings suggest that the increased job insecurity is associated with higher number of suicides than what is expected in good economic times. The effect is significant especially for the prime working-age (35–64 years old) male suicides. The second main contribution of this study is to relate the concept of social norm to unemployment. We show that in high unemployment areas the association between job loss and suicide mortality is not as severe as in low unemployment areas. An implication is that the burden of unemployment is reduced when it becomes socially more common and acceptable. The goal of the third study is to provide evidence on the effects of economic crises on suicides in 21 OECD countries over the period between 1970 and 2011. In conclusion, this study shows that over 60 000 suicides are attributable to the economic/financial crises since 1970. Two main findings emerged from the data. First, the impact of the most recent global financial crisis (2008) on suicides was not particularly stronger than that of the previous major economic/financial crises. Second, stock market crashes and banking crises are the most severe economic crises in terms of excess suicides when calculated on population-level data.Tiivistelmä Tämä väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta empiirisestä tutkimuksesta. Tutkimukset keskittyvät väestötason kysymyksiin avioerojen määrään vaikuttavien sosioekonomisten tekijöiden, sekä makrotaloudellisten tekijöiden ja itsemurhien välisen yhteyden näkökulmasta. Ensimmäisessä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan alkoholin kulutuksen vaikutusta avioerojen määrään 23 OECD-maassa vuosina 1960–2010. Tutkimuksessa havaitaan alkoholin kulutuksen olevan yksi merkittävimmistä avioeroihin vaikuttavista sosioekonomisista tekijöistä sekä lyhyellä että pitkällä aikavälillä tarkasteltuna. Tutkimuksen mukaan alkoholin kulutuksella näyttäisi olevan vaikutusta avioerojen lukumäärään myös silloin, kun moraaliarvoissa tapahtuneet muutokset on huomioitu. Toinen ja kolmas tutkimus keskittyvät itsemurhien taloustieteeseen. Toisessa tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan työttömyyden vaikutuksia hyvinvointiin. Aineistona käytetään maakuntatason sukupuoli- ja ikäryhmäjaoteltua aineistoa itsemurhakuolleisuudesta Suomessa vuosina 1991–2011. Tutkimuksen mukaan kasvava epävarmuus työpaikan pysyvyydestä voi johtaa korkeampiin itsemurhalukuihin kuin mitä olisi odotettavissa parempina taloudellisina aikoina. Tämä tulos näyttäytyy erityisesti työikäisten miesten keskuudessa. Toinen tutkimuksen päätuloksista liittyy sosiaalisten normien näkymiseen siinä, miten työttömyys vaikuttaa itsemurhakuolleisuuteen. Tulokset osoittavat, että korkeamman työttömyyden alueilla työn menettämisen ja itsemurhakuolleisuuden välinen yhteys ei ole niin voimakas kuin matalamman työttömyyden alueilla. Sosiaalisten normien vaikutus näyttäisi suojaavan ihmisiä itsemurhakuolleisuudelta niissä tapauksissa, jolloin työttömyys on yleisempää. Kolmas tutkimus tarjoaa tietoa talouskriisien vaikutuksista itsemurhiin 21 OECD-maassa vuosina 1970–2011. Tutkimuksen mukaan yli 60 tuhannen itsemurhan voidaan katsoa olevan yhteydessä talouskriiseihin vuodesta 1970 lähtien. Löydökset osoittavat, etteivät viimeisimmän globaalin finassikriisin vaikutukset itsemurhakuolleisuuteen poikenneet merkittävästi aikaisempiin laajoihin kriiseihin verrattuna. Lisäksi pankki- ja osakemarkkinakriiseillä näyttäisi olevan muita talouskriisejä vakavammat vaikutukset itsemurhakuolleisuuteen väestötasolla tarkasteltuna

Unemployment, global economic crises and suicides: evidence from 21 OECD countries

Abstract This study explores age- and gender-specific suicide mortality due to unemployment and economic crises, for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2011. The findings indicate that a higher unemployment rate leads to an increase in suicides in almost all age groups. Further, using dataset on economic/financial crisis events, results show that, in general, these crises increase suicide rates. However, the evidence also shows that economic crises have no effect on those in the 45 to 64 years age group in terms of suicides. Further, we assessed whether suicide mortality can be attributed to a ‘crisis effect’ beyond that of unemployment. For males, we found a significant joint effect between crises and unemployment. Finally, we investigated the possible nonlinear threshold response of suicides to unemployment. We found that suicides among young males (<45 years) are due to marked increases in unemployment in association with global economic crises

Unemployment and mental health:an instrumental variable analysis using municipal-level data for Finland for 2002–2019

Abstract We explore the effect of unemployment on mental health, using data from Finnish municipalities for the period 2002–2019. We measure mental illness using a mental morbidity index, as well as mental health care utilization and the use of antidepressants. There are significant differences across municipalities in Finland in both prevalence of mental health issues and illnesses, along with unemployment. Establishing a causal link between these two variables is challenging because of their reverse causality and joint determination. Using instrumental variable estimation, we establish a causal effect from unemployment to mental health. We present a strong connection between unemployment and mental health, especially for males between 25 and 64 years of age. Similar connection is not found among younger or older males, nor among females. Our findings are robust, since the results hold for various mental health measures. Our results reflect the possibility of differing mental health effects across the sources of unemployment

Economic crises and suicides between 1970 and 2011:time trend study in 21 developed countries

Abstract Background: Existing research on the relationship between economic recessions and suicides has almost completely concentrated on the most recent global financial crisis (2008). We provide the most comprehensive explanation to date of how different types of economic/financial crises since 1970 have affected suicides in developed countries. Methods: Negative binomial regressions were used to estimate what the suicide rates would have been during and 1 year after each crisis began in 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from 1970 to 2011 if the suicide rates had followed the pre-crisis trends. Results: We found that every economic/financial crisis since 1970, except the European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992, led to excess suicides in developed countries. Among males, the excess suicide rate (per 100 000 persons) varied from 1.1 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.5) to 9.5 (7.6 to 11.2) and, among females, from 0 to 2.4 (1.9 to 2.9). For both sexes, suicides increased mostly due to stock market crashes and banking crises. In terms of actual numbers, the post-1969 economic/financial crises caused >60 000 excess suicides in the 21 developed countries. The Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the most damaging crisis when assessed based on excess suicides. Conclusions: Evidence indicates that, when considered in terms of effects on suicide mortality, the most recent global financial crisis is not particularly severe compared with previous global economic/financial crises. The distinct types of crises (ie, banking, currency and inflation crises, and stock market crashes) have different effects on suicide

Did the Finnish depression of the early 1990s have a silver lining?:the effect of unemployment on long-term physical activity

Abstract This paper studies the impact of long-term unemployment on physical activity. We examined the effects 6 and 15 years following a severe business cycle downturn in Finland over the period 1991–1994. The study sample comprised residents of Northern Finland. The unemployed individuals were 23–26 years old during the downturn. Physical activity, measured by MET minutes and meeting WHO guidelines, was higher 15 years later among those people who experienced the longest periods of unemployment in 1991–1994. Physical activity was somewhat lower among people with relatively shorter periods of unemployment

Leisure-time physical activity is associated with socio-economic status beyond income:cross-sectional survey of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 study

Abstract We apply neoclassical economic modelling augmented with behavioral aspects to provide a detailed empirical investigation into indicators of socio-economic status (SES) as determinants of leisure-time physical activity. We utilize the data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 obtained at the most recent time point during 2012–2014 (response rate 67 %), at which time the participants were approximately 46 years old. Our final study sample consists of 3,335 employed participants (1520 men, 1815 women; 32.3 % of the target population). We apply logistic regression methods for estimating how the probability of being physically active is related to various indicators of socio-economic status, taking into account physical activity at work and individual lifestyle, family- and health-related factors. Overall, our findings show that belonging to a higher socio-economic group, whether defined by income level, educational attainment, or occupational status, is associated with higher leisure-time physical activity. However, when we analyze different socio-economic groups, defined in terms of education, income and occupation, separately, we find that income is not a significant determinant of leisure-time physical activity within any of the particular SES groups. Further, we find that leisure-time physical activity is negatively associated with higher screen time (i.e., watching TV and sitting at a computer), and other aspects of unhealthy lifestyle, and positively associated with self-assessed health. In addition, we note that proxies for individual motivational factors and childhood physical activity, such as the grade point average and the grade achieved in physical education when leaving basic education, are strongly correlated with leisure-time physical activity in middle age among men, but not among women. Our results are in line with behavioral economics reasoning that social comparisons and environments affect behaviors. We emphasize the importance of considering behavioral economic factors when designing policies to promote physical activity

Association of accelerometer-measured physical activity and midlife income:a Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 Study

Abstract This study investigated the association between physical activity (PA) and midlife income. The population-based data comprised employed members of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (N = 2797). Using binned scatterplots and polynomial regressions, we evaluated the association between accelerometer-measured moderate PA (MPA), vigorous PA (VPA), and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) at 46 years old and register-based income at 50 years old. The models were adjusted for sex, marital status, number of children, education, adolescent PA, occupational physical strenuousness, and time preference. We found MPA (p < 0.001), VPA (p < 0.05), and MVPA (p < 0.001) to associate curvilinearly with income. In subgroup analyses, a curvilinear association was found between MPA (p < 0.01) and MVPA (p < 0.01) among those with physically strenuous work, VPA among all females (p < 0.01) and females with physically light work (p < 0.01), and MPA and MVPA among all males and males with physically strenuous work (p < 0.05; p < 0.01; p < 0.05; p < 0.05, respectively) and income. The highest income benefits occurred at PA volumes higher than current PA guidelines. Linear associations between PA and income were found among females for MPA (p < 0.05) and MVPA (p < 0.05), among those with physically light work for MPA (p < 0.05), VPA (p < 0.05), and MVPA (p < 0.05), and among females with physically strenuous work for VPA (p < 0.05). We conclude that PA up to the current recommended level is associated with income, but MPA exceeding 505.4 min/week, VPA exceeding 216.4 min/week, and MVPA exceeding 555.0 min/week might have a negative association with income

GenZ white paper:strengthening human competences in the emerging digital era

Executive summary We are witnessing an emerging digital revolution. For the past 25–30 years, at an increasing pace, digital technologies—especially the internet, mobile phones and smartphones—have transformed the everyday lives of human beings. The pace of change will increase, and new digital technologies will become even more tightly entangled in human everyday lives. Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), 6G wireless solutions, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (XR), robots and various platforms for remote and hybrid communication will become embedded in our lives at home, work and school. Digitalisation has been identified as a megatrend, for example, by the OECD (2016; 2019). While digitalisation processes permeate all aspects of life, special attention has been paid to its impact on the ageing population, everyday communication practices, education and learning and working life. For example, it has been argued that digital solutions and technologies have the potential to improve quality of life, speed up processes and increase efficiency. At the same time, digitalisation is likely to bring with it unexpected trends and challenges. For example, AI and robots will doubtlessly speed up or take over many routine-based work tasks from humans, leading to the disappearance of certain occupations and the need for re-education. This, in turn, will lead to an increased demand for skills that are unique to humans and that technologies are not able to master. Thus, developing human competences in the emerging digital era will require not only the mastering of new technical skills, but also the advancement of interpersonal, emotional, literacy and problem-solving skills. It is important to identify and describe the digitalisation phenomena—pertaining to individuals and societies—and seek human-centric answers and solutions that advance the benefits of and mitigate the possible adverse effects of digitalisation (e.g. inequality, divisions, vulnerability and unemployment). This requires directing the focus on strengthening the human skills and competences that will be needed for a sustainable digital future. Digital technologies should be seen as possibilities, not as necessities. There is a need to call attention to the co-evolutionary processes between humans and emerging digital technologies—that is, the ways in which humans grow up with and live their lives alongside digital technologies. It is imperative to gain in-depth knowledge about the natural ways in which digital technologies are embedded in human everyday lives—for example, how people learn, interact and communicate in remote and hybrid settings or with artificial intelligence; how new digital technologies could be used to support continuous learning and understand learning processes better and how health and well-being can be promoted with the help of new digital solutions. Another significant consideration revolves around the co-creation of our digital futures. Important questions to be asked are as follows: Who are the ones to co-create digital solutions for the future? How can humans and human sciences better contribute to digitalisation and define how emerging technologies shape society and the future? Although academic and business actors have recently fostered inclusion and diversity in their co-creation processes, more must be done. The empowerment of ordinary people to start acting as active makers and shapers of our digital futures is required, as is giving voice to those who have traditionally been silenced or marginalised in the development of digital technology. In the emerging co-creation processes, emphasis should be placed on social sustainability and contextual sensitivity. Such processes are always value-laden and political and intimately intertwined with ethical issues. Constant and accelerating change characterises contemporary human systems, our everyday lives and the environment. Resilience thinking has become one of the major conceptual tools for understanding and dealing with change. It is a multi-scalar idea referring to the capacity of individuals and human systems to absorb disturbances and reorganise their functionality while undergoing a change. Based on the evolving new digital technologies, there is a pressing need to understand how these technologies could be utilised for human well-being, sustainable lifestyles and a better environment. This calls for analysing different scales and types of resilience in order to develop better technology-based solutions for human-centred development in the new digital era. This white paper is a collaborative effort by researchers from six faculties and groups working on questions related to digitalisation at the University of Oulu, Finland. We have identified questions and challenges related to the emerging digital era and suggest directions that will make possible a human-centric digital future and strengthen the competences of humans and humanity in this era

Evidence for three genetic loci involved in both anorexia nervosa risk and variation of body mass index

The maintenance of normal body weight is disrupted in patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) for prolonged periods of time. Prior to the onset of AN, premorbid body mass index (BMI) spans the entire range from underweight to obese. After recovery, patients have reduced rates of overweight and obesity. As such, loci involved in body weight regulation may also be relevant for AN and vice versa. Our primary analysis comprised a cross-trait analysis of the 1000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with the lowest P-values in a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of AN (GCAN) for evidence of association in the largest published GWAMA for BMI (GIANT). Subsequently we performed sex-stratified analyses for these 1000 SNPs. Functional ex vivo studies on four genes ensued. Lastly, a look-up of GWAMA-derived BMI-related loci was performed in the AN GWAMA. We detected significant associations (P-values <5 × 10-5, Bonferroni-corrected P<0.05) for nine SNP alleles at three independent loci. Interestingly, all AN susceptibility alleles were consistently associated with increased BMI. None of the genes (chr. 10: CTBP2, chr. 19: CCNE1, chr. 2: CARF and NBEAL1; the latter is a region with high linkage disequilibrium) nearest to these SNPs has previously been associated with AN or obesity. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that the strongest BMI signal originated predominantly from females (chr. 10 rs1561589; Poverall: 2.47 × 10-06/Pfemales: 3.45 × 10-07/Pmales: 0.043). Functional ex vivo studies in mice revealed reduced hypothalamic expression of Ctbp2 and Nbeal1 after fasting. Hypothalamic expression of Ctbp2 was increased in diet-induced obese (DIO) mice as compared with age-matched lean controls. We observed no evidence for associations for the look-up of BMI-related loci in the AN GWAMA. A cross-trait analysis of AN and BMI loci revealed variants at three chromosomal loci with potential joint impact. The chromosome 10 locus is particularly promising given that the association with obesity was primarily driven by females. In addition, the detected altered hypothalamic expression patterns of Ctbp2 and Nbeal1 as a result of fasting and DIO implicate these genes in weight regulation

Genome-wide association and longitudinal analyses reveal genetic loci linking pubertal height growth, pubertal timing and childhood adiposity.

The pubertal height growth spurt is a distinctive feature of childhood growth reflecting both the central onset of puberty and local growth factors. Although little is known about the underlying genetics, growth variability during puberty correlates with adult risks for hormone-dependent cancer and adverse cardiometabolic health. The only gene so far associated with pubertal height growth, LIN28B, pleiotropically influences childhood growth, puberty and cancer progression, pointing to shared underlying mechanisms. To discover genetic loci influencing pubertal height and growth and to place them in context of overall growth and maturation, we performed genome-wide association meta-analyses in 18 737 European samples utilizing longitudinally collected height measurements. We found significant associations (P < 1.67 × 10(-8)) at 10 loci, including LIN28B. Five loci associated with pubertal timing, all impacting multiple aspects of growth. In particular, a novel variant correlated with expression of MAPK3, and associated both with increased prepubertal growth and earlier menarche. Another variant near ADCY3-POMC associated with increased body mass index, reduced pubertal growth and earlier puberty. Whereas epidemiological correlations suggest that early puberty marks a pathway from rapid prepubertal growth to reduced final height and adult obesity, our study shows that individual loci associating with pubertal growth have variable longitudinal growth patterns that may differ from epidemiological observations. Overall, this study uncovers part of the complex genetic architecture linking pubertal height growth, the timing of puberty and childhood obesity and provides new information to pinpoint processes linking these traits