Systematic review and meta-analysis on predictors of prognosis in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders: An overview of current evidence and a call for prospective research and open access to datasets

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) have heterogeneous outcomes. If we could predict individual outcome and identify predictors of outcome, we could personalize and optimize treatment and care. Recent research showed that recovery rates tend to stabilize early in the course of disease. Short- to medium- term treatment goals are most relevant for clinical practice. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors of outcome ≤1 year in prospective studies of patients with SSD. For our meta-analysis risk of bias was assessed with the QUIPS tool. RESULTS: 178 studies were included for analysis. Our systematic review and meta-analysis showed that the chance of symptomatic remission was lower in males, and in patients with longer duration of untreated psychosis, more symptoms, worse global functioning, more previous hospital admissions and worse treatment adherence. The chance of readmission was higher for patients with more previous admissions. The chance of functional improvement was lower in patients with worse functioning at baseline. For other proposed predictors of outcome, like age at onset and depressive symptoms, limited to no evidence was found. DISCUSSION: This study illuminates predictors of outcome of SSD. Level of functioning at baseline was the best predictor of all investigated outcomes. Furthermore, we found no evidence for many predictors proposed in original research. Possible reasons for this include the lack of prospective research, between-study heterogeneity and incomplete reporting. We therefore recommend open access to datasets and analysis scripts, enabling other researchers to reanalyze and pool the data

Semantic and Acoustic Markers in Schizophrenia-Spectrum Disorders:A Combinatory Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Speech is a promising marker to aid diagnosis of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, as it reflects symptoms like thought disorder and negative symptoms. Previous approaches made use of different domains of speech for diagnostic classification, including features like coherence (semantic) and form (acoustic). However, an examination of the added value of each domain when combined is lacking as of yet. Here, we investigate the acoustic and semantic domains separately and combined. STUDY DESIGN: Using semi-structured interviews, speech of 94 subjects with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SSD) and 73 healthy controls (HC) was recorded. Acoustic features were extracted using a standardized feature-set, and transcribed interviews were used to calculate semantic word similarity using word2vec. Random forest classifiers were trained for each domain. A third classifier was used to combine features from both domains; 10-fold cross-validation was used for each model. RESULTS: The acoustic random forest classifier achieved 81% accuracy classifying SSD and HC, while the semantic domain classifier reached an accuracy of 80%. Joining features from the two domains, the combined classifier reached 85% accuracy, significantly improving on separate domain classifiers. For the combined classifier, top features were fragmented speech from the acoustic domain and variance of similarity from the semantic domain. CONCLUSIONS: Both semantic and acoustic analyses of speech achieved ~80% accuracy in classifying SSD from HC. We replicate earlier findings per domain, additionally showing that combining these features significantly improves classification performance. Feature importance and accuracy in combined classification indicate that the domains measure different, complementing aspects of speech.</p

Active Selection of Classification Features

Some data analysis applications comprise datasets, where explanatory variables are expensive or tedious to acquire, but auxiliary data are readily available and might help to construct an insightful training set. An example is neuroimaging research on mental disorders, specifically learning a diagnosis/prognosis model based on variables derived from expensive Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans, which often requires large sample sizes. Auxiliary data, such as demographics, might help in selecting a smaller sample that comprises the individuals with the most informative MRI scans. In active learning literature, this problem has not yet been studied, despite promising results in related problem settings that concern the selection of instances or instance-feature pairs. Therefore, we formulate this complementary problem of Active Selection of Classification Features (ASCF): Given a primary task, which requires to learn a model f: x-> y to explain/predict the relationship between an expensive-to-acquire set of variables x and a class label y. Then, the ASCF-task is to use a set of readily available selection variables z to select these instances, that will improve the primary task's performance most when acquiring their expensive features z and including them to the primary training set. We propose two utility-based approaches for this problem, and evaluate their performance on three public real-world benchmark datasets. In addition, we illustrate the use of these approaches to efficiently acquire MRI scans in the context of neuroimaging research on mental disorders, based on a simulated study design with real MRI data.Comment: Accepted for publication at the 19th Intelligent Data Analysis Symposium, 2021. The final authenticated publication will be made available online at springer.co

Non-linear development of brain morphometry in child and adolescent offspring of individuals with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia

Offspring of parents with severe mental illness (e.g., bipolar disorder or schizophrenia) are at increased risk of developing psychopathology. Structural brain alterations have been found in child and adolescent offspring of patients with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, but the developmental trajectories of brain anatomy in this high-familial-risk population are still unclear. 300 T1-weighted scans were obtained of 187 offspring of at least one parent diagnosed with bipolar disorder (n=80) or schizophrenia (n=53) and offspring of parents without severe mental illness (n=54). The age range was 8 to 23 years old; 113 offspring underwent two scans. Global brain measures and regional cortical thickness and surface area were computed. A generalized additive mixed model was used to capture non-linear age trajectories. Offspring of parents with schizophrenia had smaller total brain volume than offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (d=-0.20, p=0.004) and control offspring (d=-0.22, p=0.005) and lower mean cortical thickness than control offspring (d=-0.23, p&lt;0.001). Offspring of parents with schizophrenia showed differential age trajectories of mean cortical thickness and cerebral white matter volume compared with control offspring (both p's=0.003). Regionally, offspring of parents with schizophrenia had a significantly different trajectory of cortical thickness in the middle temporal gyrus versus control offspring (p&lt;0.001) and bipolar disorder offspring (p=0.001), which was no longer significant after correcting for mean cortical thickness. These findings suggest that particularly familial high risk of schizophrenia is related to reductions and deviating developmental trajectories of global brain structure measures, which were not driven by specific regions.</p

Revealing the impact of psychiatric comorbidities on treatment outcome in early psychosis using counterfactual model explanation

INTRODUCTION: Psychiatric comorbidities have a significant impact on the course of illness in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. To accurately predict outcomes for individual patients using computerized prognostic models, it is essential to consider these comorbidities and their influence. METHODS: In our study, we utilized a multi-modal deep learning architecture to forecast symptomatic remission, focusing on a multicenter sample of patients with first-episode psychosis from the OPTiMiSE study. Additionally, we introduced a counterfactual model explanation technique to examine how scores on the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) affected the likelihood of remission, both at the group level and for individual patients. RESULTS: Our findings at the group level revealed that most comorbidities had a negative association with remission. Among them, current and recurrent depressive disorders consistently exerted the greatest negative impact on the probability of remission across patients. However, we made an interesting observation: current suicidality within the past month and substance abuse within the past 12 months were associated with an increased chance of remission in patients. We found a high degree of variability among patients at the individual level. Through hierarchical clustering analysis, we identified two subgroups: one in which comorbidities had a relatively limited effect on remission (approximately 45% of patients), and another in which comorbidities more strongly influenced remission. By incorporating comorbidities into individualized prognostic prediction models, we determined which specific comorbidities had the greatest impact on remission at both the group level and for individual patients. DISCUSSION: These results highlight the importance of identifying and including relevant comorbidities in prediction models, providing valuable insights for improving the treatment and prognosis of patients with psychotic disorders. Furthermore, they open avenues for further research into the efficacy of treating these comorbidities to enhance overall patient outcomes

Contributing factors to advanced brain aging in depression and anxiety disorders

Depression and anxiety are common and often comorbid mental health disorders that represent risk factors for aging-related conditions. Brain aging has shown to be more advanced in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Here, we extend prior work by investigating multivariate brain aging in patients with MDD, anxiety disorders, or both, and examine which factors contribute to older-appearing brains. Adults aged 18–57 years from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety underwent structural MRI. A pretrained brain-age prediction model based on >2000 samples from the ENIGMA consortium was applied to obtain brain-predicted age differences (brain PAD, predicted brain age minus chronological age) in 65 controls and 220 patients with current MDD and/or anxiety. Brain-PAD estimates were associated with clinical, somatic, lifestyle, and biological factors. After correcting for antidepressant use, brain PAD was significantly higher in MDD (+2.78 years, Cohen’s d = 0.25, 95% CI −0.10-0.60) and anxiety patients (+2.91 years, Cohen’s d = 0.27, 95% CI −0.08-0.61), compared with controls. There were no significant associations with lifestyle or biological stress systems. A multivariable model indicated unique contributions of higher severity of somatic depression symptoms (b = 4.21 years per unit increase on average sum score) and antidepressant use (−2.53 years) to brain PAD. Advanced brain aging in patients with MDD and anxiety was most strongly associated with somatic depressive symptomatology. We also present clinically relevant evidence for a potential neuroprotective antidepressant effect on the brain-PAD metric that requires follow-up in future research

Non-linear development of brain morphometry in child and adolescent offspring of individuals with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia

Offspring of parents with severe mental illness (e.g., bipolar disorder or schizophrenia) are at increased risk of developing psychopathology. Structural brain alterations have been found in child and adolescent offspring of patients with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, but the developmental trajectories of brain anatomy in this high-familial-risk population are still unclear. 300 T1-weighted scans were obtained of 187 offspring of at least one parent diagnosed with bipolar disorder (n=80) or schizophrenia (n=53) and offspring of parents without severe mental illness (n=54). The age range was 8 to 23 years old; 113 offspring underwent two scans. Global brain measures and regional cortical thickness and surface area were computed. A generalized additive mixed model was used to capture non-linear age trajectories. Offspring of parents with schizophrenia had smaller total brain volume than offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (d=-0.20, p=0.004) and control offspring (d=-0.22, p=0.005) and lower mean cortical thickness than control offspring (d=-0.23, p<0.001). Offspring of parents with schizophrenia showed differential age trajectories of mean cortical thickness and cerebral white matter volume compared with control offspring (both p's=0.003). Regionally, offspring of parents with schizophrenia had a significantly different trajectory of cortical thickness in the middle temporal gyrus versus control offspring (p<0.001) and bipolar disorder offspring (p=0.001), which was no longer significant after correcting for mean cortical thickness. These findings suggest that particularly familial high risk of schizophrenia is related to reductions and deviating developmental trajectories of global brain structure measures, which were not driven by specific regions

De-identification procedures for magnetic resonance images and the impact on structural brain measures at different ages

Surface rendering of MRI brain scans may lead to identification of the participant through facial characteristics. In this study, we evaluate three methods that overwrite voxels containing privacy-sensitive information: Face Masking, FreeSurfer defacing, and FSL defacing. We included structural T1-weighted MRI scans of children, young adults and older adults. For the young adults, test-retest data were included with a 1-week interval. The effects of the de-identification methods were quantified using different statistics to capture random variation and systematic noise in measures obtained through the FreeSurfer processing pipeline. Face Masking and FSL defacing impacted brain voxels in some scans especially in younger participants. FreeSurfer defacing left brain tissue intact in all cases. FSL defacing and FreeSurfer defacing preserved identifiable characteristics around the eyes or mouth in some scans. For all de-identification methods regional brain measures of subcortical volume, cortical volume, cortical surface area, and cortical thickness were on average highly replicable when derived from original versus de-identified scans with average regional correlations \u3e.90 for children, young adults, and older adults. Small systematic biases were found that incidentally resulted in significantly different brain measures after de-identification, depending on the studied subsample, de-identification method, and brain metric. In young adults, test-retest intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were comparable for original scans and de-identified scans with average regional ICCs \u3e.90 for (sub)cortical volume and cortical surface area and ICCs \u3e.80 for cortical thickness. We conclude that apparent visual differences between de-identification methods minimally impact reliability of brain measures, although small systematic biases can occur

Individualized prediction of three- and six-year outcomes of psychosis in a longitudinal multicenter study:a machine learning approach

Schizophrenia and related disorders have heterogeneous outcomes. Individualized prediction of long-term outcomes may be helpful in improving treatment decisions. Utilizing extensive baseline data of 523 patients with a psychotic disorder and variable illness duration, we predicted symptomatic and global outcomes at 3-year and 6-year follow-ups. We classified outcomes as (1) symptomatic: in remission or not in remission, and (2) global outcome, using the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale, divided into good (GAF &gt;= 65) and poor (GAF &lt; 65). Aiming for a robust and interpretable prediction model, we employed a linear support vector machine and recursive feature elimination within a nested cross-validation design to obtain a lean set of predictors. Generalization to out-of-study samples was estimated using leave-one-site-out cross-validation. Prediction accuracies were above chance and ranged from 62.2% to 64.7% (symptomatic outcome), and 63.5-67.6% (global outcome). Leave-one-site-out cross-validation demonstrated the robustness of our models, with a minor drop in predictive accuracies of 2.3% on average. Important predictors included GAF scores, psychotic symptoms, quality of life, antipsychotics use, psychosocial needs, and depressive symptoms. These robust, albeit modestly accurate, long-term prognostic predictions based on lean predictor sets indicate the potential of machine learning models complementing clinical judgment and decision-making. Future model development may benefit from studies scoping patient's and clinicians' needs in prognostication.</p