Personal Loan Sales Forecasting Through Time Series Analysis

Almost all state enterprises and private sector companies try to foresee future expectations. From the viewpoint of economic, productive, and efficient business management, this is highly important. By making rational decisions, all enterprises aim to rich maximum profitability by taking sales, cost, human resource needs, profits into account. For this reason, enterprises have to make reliable and reasonable forecasts to take the right decisions.  Such forecasts might be used in budgeting, cost, and profit analysis. Forecasted scenarios might come true in the future with a great likelihood. The researcher utilizing time series analysis assumes that all findings that come out will be almost the same happened in the past. Analyzing the time series consist of four aims such as defining, modeling forecasting, and controlling. To define a series, it is needed to compute definitional statistics and to draw its graphic. The second purpose of analyzing the time series is to find the appropriate model of the time series. With that work called “Time series and application to sale dataâ€, it is tried to make a suitable guess model by analyzing the data of personal loans of a bank 2004-2010 sale data based on unit. During the stagnation stage of the sequence correlogram and root, analyses are performed. The sequence is analyzed with the help of the Eviews 5,1 program. At the end of the survey, it is seen that natural logarithmic personal loan sale sequences are at their level and in the first gap it is not constant and it is also seen that when the second gap is taken, the constant is obtained. The sequence of which the second gap is taken is shown based on time-way graphs and correlogram. When the constant is provided, the guessed model is formed by taking the second gap. The suitability of the model is observed by the correlogram, Akaike information criteria (AIC), and Schwarz information criteria (SIC) merits.Tüm kamu kurumlarının ve özel sektör kuruluÅŸlarının geleceÄŸe yönelik tahminde bulunması özellikle etkin, ekonomik ve verimli iÅŸletmecilik açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bir iÅŸletme; satışlarını, maliyetlerini, karını, insan  kaynak  ihtiyacını tahmin ederek rasyonel kararlar alıp maksimum karlılığa ulaÅŸmayı   amaçlar. Bu nedenle Ä°ÅŸletmeler, rasyonel kararlar alabilmek için geçerli ve tutarlı tahminler yapmak zorundadır. Bu gibi tahminler bütçeleme ve gelecekte gerekli olan operasyonel gider ve karlılık  belirlenmesinde kullanılabilir. Tahmin edilen olaylar gelecekte gerçekleÅŸecektir. Zaman serileri analiz yöntemlerini tahmin amacıyla kullanan araÅŸtırmacı, tahmin edilen olayların gelecekte de geçmiÅŸtekine benzer vuku bulacağını varsaymaktadır. Zaman serilerini analiz etmenin; tanımlama, modelleme, tahmin ve kontrol olmak üzere dört temel amacı vardır. Seriyi tanımlamak için serinin tanımsal istatistiklerinin hesaplanması ve grafiÄŸinin çizilmesi gerekmektedir. Zaman serilerini analiz etmenin ikinci amacı zaman serisinin uygun bir modelini bulmaktır  â€œZaman Serileri ve Satış Verilerine Uygulanması†adlı bu çalışma ile sanal bir bankanın  f 2004-2010 yılı adet bazında bireysel kredi satış verileri incelenerek uygun bir model tahmini yapılmaya çalışılmıştır. Serinin duraÄŸanlık analizinde korelogram ve kök testleri yapılmıştır. Seri, Eviews 5.1 programı yardımıyla analiz edilmiÅŸtir. Analiz sonucunda, doÄŸal logaritmik bireysel kredi  satış serisinin kendi düzeyinde ve birinci farkında duraÄŸan olmadığı, ikinci farkının alındığında duraÄŸanlığın saÄŸlandığı gözlenmiÅŸtir. Ä°kinci farkı alınan serinin duraÄŸanlığı yine zaman yolu grafiÄŸi ve korelogram üzerinden gösterilmiÅŸtir. DuraÄŸanlık saÄŸlandıktan sonra ikinci fark alınarak tahmin edilen model oluÅŸturulmuÅŸtur. Modelin uygunluÄŸu hem korelogram üzerinden hem de Akaike bilgi kriteri (AIC) ve Schwarz bilgi kriteri (SIC) deÄŸerleriyle gözlenmiÅŸtir

SUPERVISI KEPALA MADRASAH ( ANALISIS PENERAPAN PRINSIP-PRINSIP SUPERVISI KEPALA MADRASAH ALIYAH MIFTAHUL ANWAR KABUPATEN LAMPUNG TENGAH )

Penerapan prinsip-prinsip supervisi kepala madrasah merupakan salah satu program penting yang harus dilaksanakan oleh kepala madrasah untuk meningkatan kompetensi guru. Peningkatan kompetensi guru merupakan suatu keharusan bagi lembaga pendidikan yang ingin tetap survivi sepanjang masa, karena guru pada lembaga pendidikan merupakan kunci utama keberhasilan dalam proses belajar mengajar. Terkait Penerapan prinsip-prinsip supervisi kepala madrasah oleh kepala madrasah, peneliti melakukan prasurvey di Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah. Prasurvey dilakukan untuk mengetahui hal-hal yang terkait dengan kegiatan supervisi akademik oleh kepala madrasah. Berdasarkan informasi yang diperoleh pada saat pra research kepala Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah mengatakan bahwa Penerapan prinsip-prinsip supervisi kepala madrasah mutlak untuk dilaksanakan terhadap para guru. Untuk mendapatkan hasil supervisi akademik yang baik diperlukan manajemen yang baik pula. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memahami dan menganalisis : Bagaimana Penerapan prinsip-prinsip dalam supervisi Kepala Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif. Penelitian dilakukan di Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah. Subyek dalam penelitian ini adalah kepala Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah. Informan dalam penelitian ini adalah wakil kepala sekolah bidang kurikulum, guru, dan tenaga tata usaha. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan metode wawancara, observasi, dan dokumentasi. Pemeriksaan keabsahan data dengan menggunakan uji kredibilitas yakni trianggulasi teknik dan trianggulasi sumber. Analisis data menggunakan model interaktif, penyajian data, dan penarikan kesimpulan. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa terdapat 4 (empat) prinsip penerapan dalam supervisi kepala madrasah : (1) Penerapan Prinsip Ilmiah (Scientific) Dalam Supervisi Kepala Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah belum maksimal (2) Penerapan Prinsip Demokrasi Dalam Supervisi Kepala Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah sudah sesuai dengan prinsip-prinsip demokrasi, sehingga suasana Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar terasa nyaman dan damai (3) Penerapan Prinsip kerjasama Dalam Supervisi Kepala Madrasah yang diterapkan oleh kepala madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah sudah maksimal dan sesuai dengan prinsip-prinsip kerjasama, sehingga kepala madrasah dan semua dewan guru Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah bersama-sama menjaga prinsip kerjasama ini agar selalu tercipata suasana yang harmonis. (4) Penerapan Prinsip Kontruktif dan Kreatif Dalam Supervisi Kepala Madrasah Aliyah Miftahul Anwar Kabupaten Lampung Tengah telah sesuai dengan prinsip supervisi Kontruktif dan Kreati

ENSO effects on mean temperature in Turkey

Abstract. The ENSO effects on Turkish streamflow and precipitation patterns were previously analyzed by applying the t-test on eight standard seasons beginning with the JJA (-1) season of the year before the event year and ending with the MAM (+1) season of the year after the event year. The objective of this study is to identify the ENSO effects on the mean temperature data in Turkey by using the same methodology used for streamflow and precipitation. The methodology mainly comprises of two phases: first, composite analysis; and second, statistical t-test analysis. An overall result shown by this study is that the response of temperature to ENSO events was not much noticeable than those of the two hydroclimatological variables. Any positive anomaly could not be detected during the classical seasons of the event year, indicating that the mean temperature values occur below the average. The dominancy of cold anomaly conditions begins with the JJA (-1) season and continues until the DJF (+1) season. Furthermore the MAM (0) season has a maximum number of negative anomalies when compared to other cold anomaly seasons. Besides the positive anomaly conditions of streamflow and precipitation at the event year, the temperature values exhibited negative anomaly conditions at the same time period. In this study we aimed to determine whether there exists any relationship between temperature, streamflow and precipitation patterns of Turkey in terms of responding to the ENSO forcing. In conclusion, a sign of the tropical biennial cycle was, to some extent, evident surface climate variables

Lipase-catalyzed acylation of quercetin with cinnamic acid

Acylation of quercetin with cinnamic acid catalyzed by Candida antarctica lipase B (CAL-B) or Pseudomonas cepacia lipase C (PCL-C) was investigated. Specifically, the effects of reaction duration, incubation temperature, and molar ratio of substrates on bioconversion yield, initial rate of reaction, and regioselectivity were investigated. Three new acylated quercetin analogues were produced: quercetin 4′-cinnamate (C24H16O8), quercetin 3′,4′-dicinnamate (C33H22O9), and quercetin 7,3′,4′-tricinnamate (C42H28O10). The effects of the lipase-catalyzed acylation conditions on the bioconversion yields varied across the conditions. The initial rate of reaction of acylation of quercetin with cinnamic acid catalyzed by CAL-B and PCL-C was similar. In the presence of CAL-B, acylation mainly took place at the C-4′-OH, generating mostly quercetin 4′-cinnamate; whereas with PCL-C, acylation mainly took place at both the 4′- and 3′-hydroxyls, generating quercetin 3′,4′-dicinnamate. Thin-layer-chromatography analysis showed that the three acylated quercetin analogues had higher lipophilicity when compared with quercetin. In silico investigation revealed that quercetin 4’-cinnamate and quercetin 3′,4′-dicinnamate are likely to be orally active pharmacological drugs

Single-sided lateral-field and phototransistor-based optoelectronic tweezers

Described herein are single-sided lateral-field optoelectronic tweezers (LOET) devices which use photosensitive electrode arrays to create optically-induced dielectrophoretic forces in an electric field that is parallel to the plane of the device. In addition, phototransistor-based optoelectronic tweezers (PhOET) devices are described that allow for optoelectronic tweezers (OET) operation in high-conductivity physiological buffer and cell culture media

Robust Neural Controllers for Power System Based on New Reduced Models

This paper presents an advanced control method for the stabilization of Electric power systems. This method is a decentralized control strategy based on a set of neural controllers. Essentially, the large- scale power system is decomposed into a set of subsys- tems in which each one is constituted by a single ma- chine connected to a variable bus. For each subsystem, a neural controller is designed to respond to a perfor- mance index. The neural controller is a feed-forward multi-layered one. Its training method is accomplished for different rates of desired terminal voltage and is based on the perturbed electrical power system model. For a single machine, the synaptic weights of corre- sponding neural controller are adjusted to force the ma- chine outputs to converge into expected one obtained by the load flow program. To evaluate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed control method, it has been applied to the WSCC power system under severe operating conditions. The obtained results compared to the ones of conventional controllers proved the high quality of the proposed controller in terms of tran- sient stability and voltage regulation of the considered electrical power system

Analyzing the Effects of MBPSS on the Transit Stability and High-Level Integration of Wind Farms during Fault Conditions

As the demand for renewable energy continues to increase, wind power has emerged as a prominent source of clean energy. However, incorporating wind energy into the power generation system at a high level can significantly impact the dynamic performance of the power system, resulting in increased uncertainties during operation. This study investigated the effectiveness of the Multi-Band Power System Stabilizer (MBPSS), a new power system stabilizer, in suppressing dynamic oscillations in a multi-machine power system connected to a wind farm. This research focused on analyzing the transient stability of a nine-bus network, commonly known as the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC), integrated with a Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) using MATLAB/Simulink. The study evaluated the dynamic performance of the proposed system under fault conditions, including Line-to-Line-to-Line-to-Ground (LLLG) faults. Simulation results showed that MBPSS effectively dampened oscillations and improved the stability of the power system, even in the presence of severe faults and high-level integration of wind farms