Obaveštajna analiza, kritičko mišljenje i strukturne analitičke tehnike u funkciji obaveštajno-bezbednosnog menadžmenta

Sistemski pristup u rukovođenju obaveštajno-bezbednosnim organizacijama (obaveštajno-bezbednosnom menadžmentu), kao i načinu odlučivanja i izboru modela donošenja odluka i praćenju ishodišta obaveštajne delatnosti u savremenim uslovima, zahteva razvijanje liderskih i menadžerskih veština kao ključnog elemenata uspešnog planiranja i realizacije obaveštajno-bezbednosnih poslova. Pored opštih organizacionih i drugih pretpostavki, u okviru obaveštajno-bezbednosnog menadžmenta posebno se ističe uloga i značaj obaveštajne analize, time i kritičkog mišljenja kao osnova za njenu uspešnost. Obaveštajna analiza predstavlja složen pojam koji obuhvata primenu mnoštva opštenaučnih metoda, postupaka i tehnika, kao i specifičnih tehnika i veština svojstvenih obaveštajnim službama. S tim u vezi, posebno značajna oblast obaveštajno-bezbednosnog menadžmenta je koriščenje analitičkih veština (i sposobnosti kritičkog mišljenja) u razvoju i primeni strukturnih analitičkih tehnika su funkciji pravovremenog, sveobuhvatnog i objektivnog sagledavanja problema koji su predmet obaveštajnog istraživanja, konačno i u funkciji uspešne realizacije svih funkcija obaveštajno-bezbednosngo menadžment. U nastojanju da se na teorijskoj i skustvenoj razini ukaže na ovaj aspekt obaveštajne delatnosti, imajući u vidu sve savremene izazove i pretnje bezbednosti, u ovom radu će se obraditi pojam i karakteristike obaveštajne analize, kritičkog mišljenja, kao i deo strukturnih analitičkih tehnika koje se koriste u obaveštajnoj analizi od strane savremenih obaveštajno-bezbednosnih ustanova u svetu

The effects of attributes of negative political advertising messages and characteristics of young voters on the attitude towards political candidates

Teza se bavi ispitivanjem uticaja sadržaja i sponzorstva negativnih političkih reklamnih poruka na stavove mladih glasača u Srbiji prema političkim kandidatima koji su meta ili sponzor tih poruka, zavisno od trajne i situacione političke involviranosti glasača i stepena njihove potrebe za kognicijom. Problem je razmatran u svetlu Teorije verovatnoće obrade. Cilj istraživanja bio je ispitati uticaje navedenih varijabli na stavove glasača prema sponzoru i meti negativne reklame, kao i na pojavu tzv. bumerang-efekta, nepovoljnijeg stava prema političkom kandidatu kada je sponzor negativne nego kada je sponzor pozitivne reklame. Izvedene su tri eksperimentalne studije: dvofaktorski mešoviti nacrt (situaciona involviranost, valenca poruke), jednofaktorski nacrt sa ponovljenim merenjima (sponzorstvo), i trofaktorski mešovit nacrt (situaciona politička involviranost, sadržaj poruke, sponzorstvo). Utvrđeno je da se u populaciji mladića studenata u Srbiji javlja bumerang-efekat. Efekti negativnih političkih reklama zavise značajno od trajne i situacione političke involviranosti, kao i od redosleda izlaganja poruka, sadržaja i sponzora reklamnih poruka, ali ne i od potrebe za kognicijom. Nalazi ukazuju na to da je upotreba negativnih političkih reklama neopravdana iz psihološke i šire društvene perspektive, osim pod posebnim uslovima. Objašnjavanjem psiholoških procesa pri izloženosti individua političkim reklamama, istraživanje direktno potvrđuje postulate Teorije verovatnoće obrade i njenu prediktivnost u oblasti političkog marketinga, na uzorku u Srbiji. Doprinos ove disertacije ogleda se i u tome što je ovo jedna od početnih studija istraživanja fenomena negativnih političkih reklama u Srbiji i psiholoških reakcija jednog segmenta glasača u Srbiji na njihThe thesis examines the effect of the content and sponsorship of negative political advertising messages on the attitudes of young voters in Serbia towards political candidates who are the target or the sponsor of these messages, depending on the enduring and situational political involvement of voters and the level of their need for cognition. The issue has been considered in the light of Elaboration Likelihood Model. The aim of the research was to examine the effects of the mentioned variables on the attitudes of voters towards the sponsor and the target of negative advertisement, as well as on the occurrence of the so-called backlash effect, a less favorable attitude towards a political candidate being a sponsor of negative advertisement in comparison with himself being a sponsor of a positive advertisement. Three experimental studies have been carried out: two factor mixed design (situational involvement, message valence), single factor repeated measures design (sponsorship), and three factor mixed design (situational political involvement, message content, sponsorship). It has been determined that a backlash effect occured in population of young students in Serbia. The effects of negative political advertisements depend significantly on enduring and situational political involvement, as well as of the order of display of messages, content and sponsors of messages, but not on the need for cognition. The findings indicate that the use of negative political advertisements is not justified from a psychological and broader social perspective, except under special conditions. By explaining the psychological processes of individuals being exposed to political advertising messages, the research directly confirms the postulates of Elaboration Likelihood Model and its predictiveness in the field of political marketing, on a sample in Serbia. The contribution of this dissertation is also reflected in the fact that this is one of the initial research studies into the phenomenon of negative political advertisements in Serbia and psychological reactions of one segment of voters in Serbia to the

The effects of attributes of negative political advertising messages and characteristics of young voters on the attitude towards political candidates

Teza se bavi ispitivanjem uticaja sadržaja i sponzorstva negativnih političkih reklamnih poruka na stavove mladih glasača u Srbiji prema političkim kandidatima koji su meta ili sponzor tih poruka, zavisno od trajne i situacione političke involviranosti glasača i stepena njihove potrebe za kognicijom. Problem je razmatran u svetlu Teorije verovatnoće obrade. Cilj istraživanja bio je ispitati uticaje navedenih varijabli na stavove glasača prema sponzoru i meti negativne reklame, kao i na pojavu tzv. bumerang-efekta, nepovoljnijeg stava prema političkom kandidatu kada je sponzor negativne nego kada je sponzor pozitivne reklame. Izvedene su tri eksperimentalne studije: dvofaktorski mešoviti nacrt (situaciona involviranost, valenca poruke), jednofaktorski nacrt sa ponovljenim merenjima (sponzorstvo), i trofaktorski mešovit nacrt (situaciona politička involviranost, sadržaj poruke, sponzorstvo). Utvrđeno je da se u populaciji mladića studenata u Srbiji javlja bumerang-efekat. Efekti negativnih političkih reklama zavise značajno od trajne i situacione političke involviranosti, kao i od redosleda izlaganja poruka, sadržaja i sponzora reklamnih poruka, ali ne i od potrebe za kognicijom. Nalazi ukazuju na to da je upotreba negativnih političkih reklama neopravdana iz psihološke i šire društvene perspektive, osim pod posebnim uslovima. Objašnjavanjem psiholoških procesa pri izloženosti individua političkim reklamama, istraživanje direktno potvrđuje postulate Teorije verovatnoće obrade i njenu prediktivnost u oblasti političkog marketinga, na uzorku u Srbiji. Doprinos ove disertacije ogleda se i u tome što je ovo jedna od početnih studija istraživanja fenomena negativnih političkih reklama u Srbiji i psiholoških reakcija jednog segmenta glasača u Srbiji na njihThe thesis examines the effect of the content and sponsorship of negative political advertising messages on the attitudes of young voters in Serbia towards political candidates who are the target or the sponsor of these messages, depending on the enduring and situational political involvement of voters and the level of their need for cognition. The issue has been considered in the light of Elaboration Likelihood Model. The aim of the research was to examine the effects of the mentioned variables on the attitudes of voters towards the sponsor and the target of negative advertisement, as well as on the occurrence of the so-called backlash effect, a less favorable attitude towards a political candidate being a sponsor of negative advertisement in comparison with himself being a sponsor of a positive advertisement. Three experimental studies have been carried out: two factor mixed design (situational involvement, message valence), single factor repeated measures design (sponsorship), and three factor mixed design (situational political involvement, message content, sponsorship). It has been determined that a backlash effect occured in population of young students in Serbia. The effects of negative political advertisements depend significantly on enduring and situational political involvement, as well as of the order of display of messages, content and sponsors of messages, but not on the need for cognition. The findings indicate that the use of negative political advertisements is not justified from a psychological and broader social perspective, except under special conditions. By explaining the psychological processes of individuals being exposed to political advertising messages, the research directly confirms the postulates of Elaboration Likelihood Model and its predictiveness in the field of political marketing, on a sample in Serbia. The contribution of this dissertation is also reflected in the fact that this is one of the initial research studies into the phenomenon of negative political advertisements in Serbia and psychological reactions of one segment of voters in Serbia to the

The effect of the content of arguments on the boomerang effect of negative political advertisements

The so-called 'boomerang effect' of negative political advertising is an unwanted backlash effect of a negative statement about the opponent that reflects more unfavourably on the sponsor than the intended target of such a negative ad. The inconsistency of previous findings on the appearance of the boomerang effect of negative political advertisements calls for shedding new light on the 'boomerang effect' and the justification of the stigmatization of negative political advertisements themselves. The aim of the study is to examine the effect of the content of arguments of printed negative political ads on the 'boomerang effect' in voters with high levels of situational political involvement, who are in general not politically involved. The emerging of the boomerang effect was analysed by using the Elaboration Likelihood Model. An experimental design 2 (candidate status: sponsor - target of the ad) x 2 (content of the argument of a negative political ad: political platform - personal characteristics of the target) has been applied. The boomerang effect has been confirmed, both for the arguments relating to the political platform and the arguments of a negative political ad related to the personal characteristics of the candidates. The boomerang effect was stronger for the arguments based upon the political platform of the target. In addition, both the sponsor and the target were evaluated less favourably based on the negative ad with the personal characteristics of the target. The obtained findings confirm that in political persuasive communication one should not apply negative ads, especially not the strategy of evoking personal characteristics of the political opponents (targets) in negative connotation, not just due to the boomerang effect, but also due to the overall negative effect on the voters in general