Potential for airborne transmission of infection in the waiting areas of healthcare premises: stochastic analysis using a Monte Carlo model

BACKGROUND: Although many infections that are transmissible from person to person are acquired through direct contact between individuals, a minority, notably pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), measles and influenza are known to be spread by the airborne route. Airborne infections pose a particular threat to susceptible individuals whenever they are placed together with the index case in confined spaces. With this in mind, waiting areas of healthcare facilities present a particular challenge, since large numbers of people, some of whom may have underlying conditions which predispose them to infection, congregate in such spaces and can be exposed to an individual who may be shedding potentially pathogenic microorganisms. It is therefore important to understand the risks posed by infectious individuals in waiting areas, so that interventions can be developed to minimise the spread of airborne infections. METHOD: A stochastic Monte Carlo model was constructed to analyse the transmission of airborne infection in a hypothetical 132 m3 hospital waiting area in which occupancy levels, waiting times and ventilation rate can all be varied. In the model the Gammaitoni-Nucci equation was utilized to predict probability of susceptible individuals becoming infected. The model was used to assess the risk of transmission of three infectious diseases, TB, influenza and measles. In order to allow for stochasticity a random number generator was applied to the variables in the model and a total of 10000 individual simulations were undertaken. The mean quanta production rates used in the study were 12.7, 100 and 570 per hour for TB, influenza and measles, respectively. RESULTS: The results of the study revealed the mean probability of acquiring a TB infection during a 30-minute stay in the waiting area to be negligible (i.e. 0.0034), while that for influenza was an order of magnitude higher at 0.0262. By comparison the mean probability of acquiring a measles infection during the same period was 0.1349. If the duration of the stay was increased to 60 minutes then these values increased to 0.0087, 0.0662 and 0.3094, respectively. CONCLUSION: Under normal circumstances the risk of acquiring a TB infection during a visit to a hospital waiting area is minimal. Likewise the risks associated with the transmission of influenza, although an order of magnitude greater than those for TB, are relatively small. By comparison, the risks associated with measles are high. While the installation of air disinfection may be beneficial, when seeking to prevent the transmission of airborne viral infection it is important to first minimize waiting times and the number of susceptible individuals present before turning to expensive technological solutions

Modelling and mapping regional-scale patterns of fishing impact and fish stocks to support coral-reef management in Micronesia

Aim: Use a fishery‐independent metric to model and map regional‐scale fishing impact, and demonstrate how this metric assists with modelling current and potential fish biomass to support coral‐reef management. We also examine the relative importance of anthropogenic and natural factors on fishes at biogeographical scales. Location: Reefs of five jurisdictions in Micronesia. Methods: A subset of 1,127 fish surveys (470 surveys) was used to calculate site‐specific mean parrotfish lengths (a proxy for cumulative fishing impact), which were modelled against 20 biophysical and anthropogenic variables. The resulting model was extrapolated to each 1 ha reef cell in the region to generate a fishing impact map. The remaining data (657 surveys) were then used to model fish biomass using 15 response variables, including fishing impact. This model was used to map estimated current regional fish standing stocks and, by setting fishing impact to 0, potential standing stocks. Results: Human population pressure and distance to port were key anthropogenic variables predicting fishing impact. Total fish biomass was negatively correlated with fishing, but the influence of natural gradients of primary productivity, sea surface temperature, habitat quality and larval supply was regionally more important. Main conclusions: Mean parrotfish length appears to be a useful fishery‐independent metric for modelling Pacific fishing impact, but considering environmental covariates is critical. Explicitly modelling fishing impact has multiple benefits, including generation of the first large‐scale map of tropical fishing impacts that can inform conservation planning. Using fishing impact data to map current and potential fish stocks provides further benefits, including highlighting the relative importance of fishing on fish biomass and identifying key biophysical variables that cause maximum potential biomass to vary significantly across the region. Regional‐scale maps of fishing, fish standing stocks and the potential benefits of protection are likely to lead to improved conservation outcomes during reserve network planning

An Excitable Cortex and Memory Model Successfully Predicts New Pseudopod Dynamics

Motile eukaryotic cells migrate with directional persistence by alternating left and right turns, even in the absence of external cues. For example, Dictyostelium discoideum cells crawl by extending distinct pseudopods in an alternating right-left pattern. The mechanisms underlying this zig-zag behavior, however, remain unknown. Here we propose a new Excitable Cortex and Memory (EC&M) model for understanding the alternating, zig-zag extension of pseudopods. Incorporating elements of previous models, we consider the cell cortex as an excitable system and include global inhibition of new pseudopods while a pseudopod is active. With the novel hypothesis that pseudopod activity makes the local cortex temporarily more excitable – thus creating a memory of previous pseudopod locations – the model reproduces experimentally observed zig-zag behavior. Furthermore, the EC&M model makes four new predictions concerning pseudopod dynamics. To test these predictions we develop an algorithm that detects pseudopods via hierarchical clustering of individual membrane extensions. Data from cell-tracking experiments agrees with all four predictions of the model, revealing that pseudopod placement is a non-Markovian process affected by the dynamics of previous pseudopods. The model is also compatible with known limits of chemotactic sensitivity. In addition to providing a predictive approach to studying eukaryotic cell motion, the EC&M model provides a general framework for future models, and suggests directions for new research regarding the molecular mechanisms underlying directional persistence

Persistent and polarised global actin flow is essential for directionality during cell migration

Cell migration is hypothesized to involve a cycle of behaviours beginning with leading edge extension. However, recent evidence suggests that the leading edge may be dispensable for migration, raising the question of what actually controls cell directionality. Here, we exploit the embryonic migration of Drosophila macrophages to bridge the different temporal scales of the behaviours controlling motility. This approach reveals that edge fluctuations during random motility are not persistent and are weakly correlated with motion. In contrast, flow of the actin network behind the leading edge is highly persistent. Quantification of actin flow structure during migration reveals a stable organization and asymmetry in the cell-wide flowfield that strongly correlates with cell directionality. This organization is regulated by a gradient of actin network compression and destruction, which is controlled by myosin contraction and cofilin-mediated disassembly. It is this stable actin-flow polarity, which integrates rapid fluctuations of the leading edge, that controls inherent cellular persistence

Determinants of synaptic integration and heterogeneity in rebound firing explored with data-driven models of deep cerebellar nucleus cells

Significant inroads have been made to understand cerebellar cortical processing but neural coding at the output stage of the cerebellum in the deep cerebellar nuclei (DCN) remains poorly understood. The DCN are unlikely to just present a relay nucleus because Purkinje cell inhibition has to be turned into an excitatory output signal, and DCN neurons exhibit complex intrinsic properties. In particular, DCN neurons exhibit a range of rebound spiking properties following hyperpolarizing current injection, raising the question how this could contribute to signal processing in behaving animals. Computer modeling presents an ideal tool to investigate how intrinsic voltage-gated conductances in DCN neurons could generate the heterogeneous firing behavior observed, and what input conditions could result in rebound responses. To enable such an investigation we built a compartmental DCN neuron model with a full dendritic morphology and appropriate active conductances. We generated a good match of our simulations with DCN current clamp data we recorded in acute slices, including the heterogeneity in the rebound responses. We then examined how inhibitory and excitatory synaptic input interacted with these intrinsic conductances to control DCN firing. We found that the output spiking of the model reflected the ongoing balance of excitatory and inhibitory input rates and that changing the level of inhibition performed an additive operation. Rebound firing following strong Purkinje cell input bursts was also possible, but only if the chloride reversal potential was more negative than −70 mV to allow de-inactivation of rebound currents. Fast rebound bursts due to T-type calcium current and slow rebounds due to persistent sodium current could be differentially regulated by synaptic input, and the pattern of these rebounds was further influenced by HCN current. Our findings suggest that active properties of DCN neurons could play a crucial role for signal processing in the cerebellum

De novo assembly of a transcriptome from the eggs and early embryos of Astropecten aranciacus

Starfish have been instrumental in many fields of biological and ecological research. Oocytes of Astropecten aranciacus, a common species native to the Mediterranean Sea and the East Atlantic, have long been used as an experimental model to study meiotic maturation, fertilization, intracellular Ca2+ signaling, and cell cycle controls. However, investigation of the underlying molecular mechanisms has often been hampered by the overall lack of DNA or protein sequences for the species. In this study, we have assembled a transcriptome for this species from the oocytes, eggs, zygotes, and early embryos, which are known to have the highest RNA sequence complexity. Annotation of the transcriptome identified over 32,000 transcripts including the ones that encode 13 distinct cyclins and as many cyclin-dependent kinases (CDK), as well as the expected components of intracellular Ca2+ signaling toolkit. Although the mRNAs of cyclin and CDK families did not undergo significant abundance changes through the stages from oocyte to early embryo, as judged by real-time PCR, the transcript encoding Mos, a negative regulator of mitotic cell cycle, was drastically reduced during the period of rapid cleavages. Molecular phylogenetic analysis using the homologous amino acid sequences of cytochrome oxidase subunit I from A. aranciacus and 30 other starfish species indicated that Paxillosida, to which A. aranciacus belongs, is not likely to be the most basal order in Asteroidea. Taken together, the first transcriptome we assembled in this species is expected to enable us to perform comparative studies and to design gene-specific molecular tools with which to tackle long-standing biological questions

Regulation of Macrophage Motility by the Water Channel Aquaporin-1: Crucial Role of M0/M2 Phenotype Switch

The water channel aquaporin-1 (AQP1) promotes migration of many cell types. Although AQP1 is expressed in macrophages, its potential role in macrophage motility, particularly in relation with phenotype polarization, remains unknown. We here addressed these issues in peritoneal macrophages isolated from AQP1-deficient mice, either undifferentiated (M0) or stimulated with LPS to orientate towards pro-inflammatory phenotype (classical macrophage activation; M1). In non-stimulated macrophages, ablation of AQP1 (like inhibition by HgCl2) increased by 2-3 fold spontaneous migration in a Src/PI3K/Rac-dependent manner. This correlated with cell elongation and formation of lamellipodia/ruffles, resulting in membrane lipid and F4/80 recruitment to the leading edge. This indicated that AQP1 normally suppresses migration of resting macrophages, as opposed to other cell types. Resting Aqp1-/- macrophages exhibited CD206 redistribution into ruffles and increased arginase activity like IL4/IL13 (alternative macrophage activation; M2), indicating a M0-M2 shift. In contrast, upon M1 orientation by LPS in vitro or peritoneal inflammation in vivo , migration of Aqp1-/- macrophages was reduced. Taken together, these data indicate that AQP1 oppositely regulates macrophage migration, depending on stimulation or not by LPS, and that macrophage phenotypic and migratory changes may be regulated independently of external cues