The Royal Society Climate Updates: What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report?

Climate has a huge influence on the way we live. For example, it affects the crops we can grow and the diseases we might encounter in particular locations. It also determines the physical infrastructure we need to build to survive comfortably in the face of extremes of heat, cold, drought and flood. Human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have changed the composition of the atmosphere over the last two centuries. This is expected to take Earth’s climate out of the relatively stable range that has characterised the last few thousand years, during which human society has emerged. Measurements of ice cores and sea-floor sediments show that the current concentration of carbon dioxide, at just over 400 parts per million, has not been experienced for at least three million years. This causes more of the heat from the Sun to be retained on Earth, warming the atmosphere and ocean. The global average of atmospheric temperature has so far risen by about 1˚C compared to the late 19th century, with further increases expected dependent on the trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions in the next few decades. In 2013 and 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its fifth assessment report (AR5) assessing the evidence about climate change and its impacts. This assessment considered data from observations and records of the past. It then assessed future changes and impacts based on various scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic factors. In 2015, almost every nation in the world agreed (in the so-called Paris Agreement) to the challenging goal of keeping global average warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. With the next assessment report (AR6) not due until 2022, it is timely to consider how evidence presented since the publication of AR5 affects the assessments made then. The Earth’s climate is a complex system. To understand it, and the impact that climate change will have, requires many different kinds of study. Climate science consists of theory, observation and modelling. Theory begins with well-established scientific principles, seeks to understand processes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales and provides the basis for models. Observation includes long time series of careful measurements, recent data from satellites, and studies of past climate using archives such as tree rings, ice cores and marine sediments. It also encompasses laboratory and field experiments designed to test and enhance understanding of processes. Computer models of the Earth climate system use theory, calibrated and validated by the observations, to calculate the result of future changes. There are nevertheless uncertainties in estimating future climate. Firstly the course of climate change is dependent on what socioeconomic, political and energy paths society takes. Secondly there remain inevitable uncertainties induced for example by variability in the interactions between different parts of the Earth system and by processes, such as cloud formation, that occur at too small a scale to incorporate precisely in global models. Assessments such as those of the IPCC describe the state of knowledge at a particular time, and also highlight areas where more research is needed. We are still exploring and improving our understanding of many of the processes within the climate system, but, on the whole, new research confirms the main ideas underpinning climate research, while refining knowledge, so as to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude and extent of crucial impacts

Can we continue research in splenectomized dogs? Mycoplasma haemocanis: Old problem - New insight

We report the appearance of a Mycoplasma haemocanis infection in laboratory dogs, which has been reported previously, yet, never before in Europe. Outbreak of the disease was triggered by a splenectomy intended to prepare the dogs for a hemorrhagic shock study. The clinical course of the dogs was dramatic including anorexia and hemolytic anemia. Treatment included allogeneic transfusion, prednisone, and oxytetracycline. Systematic follow-up (n=12, blood smears, antibody testing and specific polymerase chain reaction) gives clear evidence that persistent eradication of M. haemocanis is unlikely. We, therefore, had to abandon the intended shock study. In the absence of effective surveillance and screening for M. haemocanis, the question arises whether it is prudent to continue shock research in splenectomized dogs. Copyright (C) 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

Australian chiropractic sports medicine: half way there or living on a prayer?

Sports chiropractic within Australia has a chequered historical background of unorthodox individualistic displays of egocentric treatment approaches that emphasise specific technique preference and individual prowess rather than standardised evidence based management. This situation has changed in recent years with the acceptance of many within sports chiropractic to operate under an evidence informed banner and to embrace a research culture. Despite recent developments within the sports chiropractic movement, the profession is still plagued by a minority of practitioners continuing to espouse certain marginal and outlandish technique systems that beleaguer the mainstream core of sports chiropractic as a cohesive and homogeneous group. Modern chiropractic management is frequently multimodal in nature and incorporates components of passive and active care. Such management typically incorporates spinal and peripheral manipulation, mobilisation, soft tissue techniques, rehabilitation and therapeutic exercises. Externally, sports chiropractic has faced hurdles too, with a lack of recognition and acceptance by organized and orthodox sports medical groups. Whilst some arguments against the inclusion of chiropractic may be legitimate due to its historical baggage, much of the argument appears to be anti-competitive, insecure and driven by a closed-shop mentality.sequently, chiropractic as a profession still remains a pariah to the organised sports medicine world. Add to this an uncertain continuing education system, a lack of protection for the title 'sports chiropractor', a lack of a recognized specialist status and a lack of support from traditional chiropractic, the challenges for the growth and acceptance of the sports chiropractor are considerable. This article outlines the historical and current challenges, both internal and external, faced by sports chiropractic within Australia and proposes positive changes that will assist in recognition and inclusion of sports chiropractic in both chiropractic and multi-disciplinary sports medicine alike

Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance

Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models’ performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role

Blocking and its response to climate change

Purpose of review: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields. Recent Findings: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts. Summary: The term ‘blocking’ covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades

A population-based study of race-specific risk for placental abruption

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Efforts to elucidate risk factors for placental abruption are imperative due to the severity of complications it produces for both mother and fetus, and its contribution to preterm birth. Ethnicity-based differences in risk of placental abruption and preterm birth have been reported. We tested the hypotheses that race, after adjusting for other factors, is associated with the risk of placental abruption at specific gestational ages, and that there is a greater contribution of placental abruption to the increased risk of preterm birth in Black mothers, compared to White mothers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Missouri Department of Health's maternally-linked database of all births in Missouri (1989–1997) to assess racial effects on placental abruption and the contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth, at different gestational age categories (n = 664,303).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 108,806 births to Black mothers and 555,497 births to White mothers, 1.02% (95% CI 0.96–1.08) of Black births were complicated by placental abruption, compared to 0.71% (95% CI 0.69–0.73) of White births (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22–1.43). The magnitude of risk of placental abruption for Black mothers, compared to White mothers, increased with younger gestational age categories. The risk of placental abruption resulting in term and extreme preterm births (< 28 weeks) was higher for Black mothers (aOR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29 and aOR 1.98, 95% CI 1.58–2.48, respectively). Compared to White women delivering in the same gestational age category, there were a significantly higher proportion of placental abruption in Black mothers who delivered at term, and a significantly lower proportion of placental abruption in Black mothers who delivered in all preterm categories (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Black women have an increased risk of placental abruption compared to White women, even when controlling for known coexisting risk factors. This risk increase is greatest at the earliest preterm gestational ages when outcomes are the poorest. The relative contribution of placental abruption to term births was greater in Black women, whereas the relative contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth was greater in White women.</p

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts

Low back pain status in elite and semi-elite Australian football codes: a cross-sectional survey of football (soccer), Australian rules, rugby league, rugby union and non-athletic controls

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our understanding of the effects of football code participation on low back pain (LBP) is limited. It is unclear whether LBP is more prevalent in athletic populations or differs between levels of competition. Thus it was the aim of this study to document and compare the prevalence, intensity, quality and frequency of LBP between elite and semi-elite male Australian football code participants and a non-athletic group.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey of elite and semi-elite male Australian football code participants and a non-athletic group was performed. Participants completed a self-reported questionnaire incorporating the Quadruple Visual Analogue Scale (QVAS) and McGill Pain Questionnaire (short form) (MPQ-SF), along with additional questions adapted from an Australian epidemiological study. Respondents were 271 elite players (mean age 23.3, range 17–39), 360 semi-elite players (mean age 23.8, range 16–46) and 148 non-athletic controls (mean age 23.9, range 18–39).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Groups were matched for age (p = 0.42) and experienced the same age of first onset LBP (p = 0.40). A significant linear increase in LBP from the non-athletic group, to the semi-elite and elite groups for the QVAS and the MPQ-SF was evident (p < 0.001). Elite subjects were more likely to experience more frequent (daily or weekly OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.29–2.42) and severe LBP (discomforting and greater OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29–2.38).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Foolers in Australia have significantly more severe and frequent LBP than a non-athletic group and this escalates with level of competition.</p

Cancer Carepartners: Improving patients' symptom management by engaging informal caregivers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies have found that cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy can effectively manage their own symptoms when given tailored advice. This approach, however, may challenge patients with poor performance status and/or emotional distress. Our goal is to test an automated intervention that engages a friend or family member to support a patient through chemotherapy.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We describe the design and rationale of a randomized, controlled trial to assess the efficacy of 10 weeks of web-based caregiver alerts and tailored advice for helping a patient manage symptoms related to chemotherapy. The study aims to test the primary hypothesis that patients whose caregivers receive alerts and tailored advice will report less frequent and less severe symptoms at 10 and 14 weeks when compared to patients in the control arm; similarly, they will report better physical function, fewer outpatient visits and hospitalizations related to symptoms, and greater adherence to chemotherapy. 300 patients with solid tumors undergoing chemotherapy at two Veteran Administration oncology clinics reporting any symptom at a severity of ≥4 and a willing informal caregiver will be assigned to either 10 weeks of automated telephonic symptom assessment (ATSA) alone, or 10 weeks of ATSA plus web-based notification of symptom severity and problem solving advice to their chosen caregiver. Patients and caregivers will be surveyed at intake, 10 weeks and 14 weeks. Both groups will receive standard oncology, hospice, and palliative care.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Patients undergoing chemotherapy experience many symptoms that they may be able to manage with the support of an activated caregiver. This intervention uses readily available technology to improve patient caregiver communication about symptoms and caregiver knowledge of symptom management. If successful, it could substantially improve the quality of life of veterans and their families during the stresses of chemotherapy without substantially increasing the cost of care.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00983892">NCT00983892</a></p