Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo–sea level records

A new urban landscape in East–Southeast Asia, 2000–2010

East–Southeast Asia is currently one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, with countries such as China climbing from 20 to 50% urbanized in just a few decades. By 2050, these countries are projected to add 1 billion people, with 90% of that growth occurring in cities. This population shift parallels an equally astounding amount of built-up land expansion. However, spatially-and temporally-detailed information on regional-scale changes in urban land or population distribution do not exist; previous efforts have been either sample-based, focused on one country, or drawn conclusions from datasets with substantial temporal/spatial mismatch and variability in urban definitions. Using consistent methodology, satellite imagery and census data for >1000 agglomerations in the East–Southeast Asian region, we show that urban land increased >22% between 2000 and 2010 (from 155 000 to 189 000 km2), an amount equivalent to the area of Taiwan, while urban populations climbed >31% (from 738 to 969 million). Although urban land expanded at unprecedented rates, urban populations grew more rapidly, resulting in increasing densities for the majority of urban agglomerations, including those in both more developed (Japan, South Korea) and industrializing nations (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). This result contrasts previous sample-based studies, which conclude that cities are universally declining in density. The patterns and rates of change uncovered by these datasets provide a unique record of the massive urban transition currently underway in East–Southeast Asia that is impacting local-regional climate, pollution levels, water quality/availability, arable land, as well as the livelihoods and vulnerability of populations in the regio

Relative sea-level change in Newfoundland, Canada during the past ∼3000 years

Several processes contributing to coastal relative sea-level (RSL) change in the North Atlantic Ocean are observed and/or predicted to have distinctive spatial expressions that vary by latitude. To expand the latitudinal range of RSL records spanning the past ∼3000 years and the likelihood of recognizing the characteristic fingerprints of these processes, we reconstructed RSL at two sites (Big River and Placentia) in Newfoundland from salt-marsh sediment. Bayesian transfer functions established the height of former sea level from preserved assemblages of foraminifera and testate amoebae. Age-depth models constrained by radiocarbon dates and chronohorizons estimated the timing of sediment deposition. During the past ∼3000 years, RSL rose by ∼3.0 m at Big River and by ∼1.5 m at Placentia. A locally calibrated geotechnical model showed that post-depositional lowering through sediment compaction was minimal. To isolate and quantify contributions to RSL from global, regional linear, regional non-linear, and local-scale processes, we decomposed the new reconstructions (and those in an expanded, global database) using a spatio-temporal statistical model. The global component confirms that 20th century sea-level rise occurred at the fastest, century-scale rate in over 3000 years (P > 0.999). Distinguishing the contributions from local and regional non-linear processes is made challenging by a sparse network of reconstructions. However, only a small contribution from local-scale processes is necessary to reconcile RSL reconstructions and modeled RSL trends. We identified three latitudinally-organized groups of sites that share coherent regional non-linear trends and indicate that dynamic redistribution of ocean mass by currents and/or winds was likely an important driver of sea-level change in the North Atlantic Ocean during the past ∼3000 years

Stochastic Continuous Time Neurite Branching Models with Tree and Segment Dependent Rates

In this paper we introduce a continuous time stochastic neurite branching model closely related to the discrete time stochastic BES-model. The discrete time BES-model is underlying current attempts to simulate cortical development, but is difficult to analyze. The new continuous time formulation facilitates analytical treatment thus allowing us to examine the structure of the model more closely. We derive explicit expressions for the time dependent probabilities p(\gamma, t) for finding a tree \gamma at time t, valid for arbitrary continuous time branching models with tree and segment dependent branching rates. We show, for the specific case of the continuous time BES-model, that as expected from our model formulation, the sums needed to evaluate expectation values of functions of the terminal segment number \mu(f(n),t) do not depend on the distribution of the total branching probability over the terminal segments. In addition, we derive a system of differential equations for the probabilities p(n,t) of finding n terminal segments at time t. For the continuous BES-model, this system of differential equations gives direct numerical access to functions only depending on the number of terminal segments, and we use this to evaluate the development of the mean and standard deviation of the number of terminal segments at a time t. For comparison we discuss two cases where mean and variance of the number of terminal segments are exactly solvable. Then we discuss the numerical evaluation of the S-dependence of the solutions for the continuous time BES-model. The numerical results show clearly that higher S values, i.e. values such that more proximal terminal segments have higher branching rates than more distal terminal segments, lead to more symmetrical trees as measured by three tree symmetry indicators.Comment: 41 pages, 2 figures, revised structure and text improvement

Unpacking dasymetric modelling to correct spatial bias in environmental model outputs

Complex environmental model outputs used to inform decisions often have systematic errors and are of inappropriate resolution, requiring downscaling and bias correction for local applications. Here we provide a new interpretation of dasymetric modelling (DM) as a spatial bias correction framework useful in environmental modelling. DM is based on areal interpolation where estimates of some variable at target zones are obtained from overlapping source zones using ancillary information. We explore DM by downscaling runoff output from a distributed hydrological model using two meta-models and describe the properties of the methodology in detail. Consistent with properties of linear scaling bias correction, results show that the methodology 1) reduces errors compared to the source data and meta-models, 2) improve the spatial structure of the estimates, and 3) improve the performance of the downscaled estimates, particularly where meta-models perform poorly. The framework is simple and useful in ensuring spatial coherence of downscaled products

The Localization Transition of the Two-Dimensional Lorentz Model

We investigate the dynamics of a single tracer particle performing Brownian motion in a two-dimensional course of randomly distributed hard obstacles. At a certain critical obstacle density, the motion of the tracer becomes anomalous over many decades in time, which is rationalized in terms of an underlying percolation transition of the void space. In the vicinity of this critical density the dynamics follows the anomalous one up to a crossover time scale where the motion becomes either diffusive or localized. We analyze the scaling behavior of the time-dependent diffusion coefficient D(t) including corrections to scaling. Away from the critical density, D(t) exhibits universal hydrodynamic long-time tails both in the diffusive as well as in the localized phase.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR

The Mw 5.1, 9 August 2020, Sparta Earthquake, North Carolina: The First Documented Seismic Surface Rupture in the Eastern United States

At 8:07 a.m. EDT on 9 Aug. 2020 a Mw 5.1 earthquake located ~3 km south of Sparta, North Carolina, USA, shook much of the eastern United States, producing the first documented surface rupture due to faulting east of the New Madrid seismic zone. The co-seismic surface rupture was identified along a 2-km-long traceable zone of predominantly reverse displacement, with folding and flexure generating a scarp averaging 8–10-cm-high with a maximum observed height of ~25 cm. Widespread deformation south of the main surface rupture includes cm-dm–long and mm-cm–wide fissures. Two trenches excavated across the surface rupture reveal that this earthquake propagated to the surface along a preexisting structure in the shallow bedrock, which had not been previously identified as an active fault. Surface ruptures by faulting are rarely reported for M <6 earthquakes, and hence the Sparta earthquake provides an opportunity to improve seismic hazard knowledge associated with these moderate events. Furthermore, this earthquake occurred in a very low strain rate intraplate setting, where earthquake surface deformation, regardless of magnitude, is sparse in time and rare to observe and characterize

Stable isotope food-web analysis and mercury biomagnification in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus )

Mercury (Hg) biomagnification occurs in many ecosystems, resulting in a greater potential for toxicological effects in higher-level trophic feeders. However, Hg transport pathways through different food-web channels are not well known, particularly in high-latitude systems affected by the atmospheric Hg deposition associated with snow and ice. Here, we report on stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, and Hg concentrations, determined for 26, late 19th and early 20th century, polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) hair specimens, collected from catalogued museum collections. These data elucidate relationships between the high-latitude marine food-web structure and Hg concentrations in polar bears. The carbon isotope compositions of polar bear hairs suggest that polar bears derive nutrition from coupled food-web channels, based in pelagic and sympagic primary producers, whereas the nitrogen isotope compositions indicate that polar bears occupy > fourth-level trophic positions. Our results show a positive correlation between polar bear hair Hg concentrations and δ 15 N. Interpretation of the stable isotope data in combination with Hg concentrations tentatively suggests that polar bears participating in predominantly pelagic food webs exhibit higher mercury concentrations than polar bears participating in predominantly sympagic food webs.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73930/1/j.1751-8369.2009.00114.x.pd

Standardizing nasal nitric oxide measurement as a test for primary ciliary dyskinesia

Rationale: Several studies suggest that nasal nitric oxide (nNO) measurement could be a test for primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD), but the procedure and interpretation have not been standardized. Objectives: Touse a standard protocol formeasuringnNOtoestablishadiseasespecific cutoff value at one site, and then validate at six other sites. Methods: At the lead site, nNO was prospectively measured in individuals later confirmed to have PCD by ciliary ultrastructural defects (n = 143) or DNAH11 mutations (n = 6); and in 78 healthy and 146 disease control subjects, including individuals with asthma (n = 37), cystic fibrosis (n = 77), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 32). A disease-specific cutoff value was determined, using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). Six other sites prospectively measured nNO in 155 consecutive individuals enrolled for evaluation for possible PCD. Measurements and Main Results: At the lead site, nNO values in PCD (mean6standard deviation, 20.7624.1 nl/min; range, 1.5-207.3 nl/min) only rarely overlapped with the nNO values of healthy control subjects (304.6 6 118.8; 125.5-867.0 nl/min), asthma (267.8 6 103.2; 125.0-589.7 nl/min), or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (223.7 6 87.1; 109.7-449.1 nl/min); however, therewas overlapwith cystic fibrosis (134.0673.5; 15.6-386.1 nl/min). The disease-specific nNOcutoff valuewas defined at 77 nl/minute (sensitivity, 0.98; specificity, .0.999). At six other sites, this cutoff identified 70 of the 71 (98.6%) participants with confirmed PCD. Conclusions: Using a standardized protocol in multicenter studies, nNO measurement accurately identifies individuals with PCD, and supports its usefulness as a test to support the clinical diagnosis of PCD