Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs

We produced a relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction from Connecticut (USA) spanning the last ∼2200 yrs that is free from the influence of sediment compaction. The reconstruction used a suite of vertically- and laterally-ordered sediment samples ≤2 cm above bedrock that were collected by excavating a trench along an evenly-sloped bedrock surface. Paleomarsh elevation was reconstructed using a regional-scale transfer function trained on the modern distribution of foraminifera on Long Island Sound salt marshes and supported by bulk-sediment δ13C measurements. The history of sediment accumulation was estimated using an age-elevation model constrained by radiocarbon dates and recognition of pollution horizons of known age. The RSL reconstruction was combined with regional tide-gauge measurements spanning the last ∼150 yrs before being quantitatively analyzed using an error-in-variables integrated Gaussian process model to identify sea-level trends with formal and appropriate treatment of uncertainty and the temporal distribution of data. RSL rise was stable (∼1 mm/yr) from ∼200 BCE to ∼1000 CE, slowed to a minimum rate of rise (0.41 mm/yr) at ∼1400 CE, and then accelerated continuously to reach a current rate of 3.2 mm/yr, which is the fastest, century-scale rate of the last 2200 yrs. Change point analysis identified that modern rates of rise in Connecticut began at 1850–1886 CE. This timing is synchronous with changes recorded at other sites on the U.S. Atlantic coast and is likely the local expression of a global sea-level change. Earlier sea-level trends show coherence north of Cape Hatteras that are contrasted with southern sites. This pattern may represent centennial-scale variability in the position and/or strength of the Gulf Stream. Comparison of the new record to three existing and reanalyzed RSL reconstructions from the same site developed using sediment cores indicates that compaction is unlikely to significantly distort RSL reconstructions produced from shallow (∼2–3 m thick) sequences of salt-marsh peat

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 12610-12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112.In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA Grants # 424-18 45GZ and # NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation award OCE 1458904.2016-03-2

Adalimumab in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis–Associated Uveitis:5-Year Follow-up of the Bristol Participants of the SYCAMORE Trial

PURPOSE:To determine longer-term outcomes of participants enrolled from a single center in the SYCAMORE trial, a randomized placebo-controlled trial of adalimumab versus placebo in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis (JIA-U) uncontrolled on methotrexate. DESIGN:Retrospective interventional case series. METHODS:Medical records of all 28 SYCAMORE participants recruited at the Bristol Eye Hospital were reviewed at approximately 3-monthly intervals up to 5 years from the trial randomization date. Uveitis activity, treatment course, visual outcomes, ocular complications and adverse events were recorded. Data are presented using summary statistics. RESULTS:Following withdrawal of the investigational medicinal product (IMP), 25 of the 28 participants were started on adalimumab for active juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis (JIA-U). Of the 12 participants in the active treatment arm of the SYCAMORE study, 11 (92%) were restarted on adalimumab after withdrawal of the IMP for active JIA-U (median time to flare 188 days (range 42-413)). Two participants stopped adalimumab for uncontrolled JIA-U. One participant had a reduction in vision to 0.3 due to cataract. Mean visual acuity for the remaining 27 participants was -0.04 (right eye) and -0.05 (left eye). CONCLUSIONS:Drug-induced remission of JIA-U did not persist when adalimumab was withdrawn after 1-2 years treatment. Adalimumab was well tolerated and visual acuity outcomes were excellent

Highly Variable Recurrence of Tsunamis In the 7,400 Years Before the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic coast

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land-level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea-level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long-term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia, we reconstructed ~ 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past ~ 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt-marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide-gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach, which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction, this sea-level history approximates net land-level (subsidence and geoid) change, principally from glacio-isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain (P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea-level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Development Of A Modern Foraminiferal Data Set For Sea-Level Reconstructions, Wakatobi Marine National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

We collected modern foraminiferal samples to characterize the foraminiferal environments and investigate the role that temporal and spatial variability may play in controlling the nature and significance of foraminiferal assemblages of the mangroves of Kaledupa, Wakatobi Marine National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. The study of foraminiferal live and dead assemblages indicates that dead assemblages are least prone to vary in time and space, and furthermore, they accurately represent the subsurface assemblages that are the focus of paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Further analyses of the dead assemblages indicate a vertical zonation of foraminifera within the intertidal zone. Zone D-Ia is dominated by agglutinated foraminifera Arenoparrella mexicana, Miliammina fusca, M. obliqua and Trochammina inflata. Zone D-Ib has mixed agglutinated/calcareous assemblages with species such as T. inflata and Ammonia tepida. Zone D-II is dominated by numerous calcareous species including A. tepida, Discorbinella bertheloti, Elphidium advenum and Quinqueloculina spp. Zone D-Ia is found to be the most accurate sea-level indicator and its assemblages are omnipresent world-wide. Zones D-Ib and D-II are subject to both spatial and temporal variations which must be included in any sea-level reconstructions

Testing the Utility of Geochemical Proxies to Reconstruct Holocene Coastal Environments and Relative Sea Level: A Case Study from Hungry Bay, Bermuda

On low-lying, tropical and sub-tropical coastlines freshwater marshes may be replaced by salt-tolerant mangroves in response to relative sea-level rise. Pollen analysis of radiocarbon-dated sediment cores showed that such a change occurred in Hungry Bay, Bermuda during the late Holocene. This well-established paleoenvironmental trajectory provides an opportunity to explore if geochemical proxies (bulk-sediment δ13C and Rock-Eval pyrolysis) can reconstruct known environmental changes and relative sea level. We characterized surface sediment from depositional environments in Bermuda (freshwater wetlands, saline mangroves, and wrack composed of Sargassum natans macroalgae) using geochemical measurements and demonstrate that a multi-proxy approach can objectively distinguish among these environments. However, application of these techniques to the transgressive sediment succession beneath Hungry Bay suggests that freshwater peat and mangrove peat cannot be reliably distinguished in the sedimentary record, possibly because of post-depositional convergence of geochemical characteristics on decadal to multi-century timescales and/or the relatively small number of modern samples analyzed. Sediment that includes substantial contributions from Sargassum is readily identified by geochemistry, but has a limited spatial extent. Radiocarbon dating indicates that beginning at –700 CE, episodic marine incursions into Hungry Bay (e.g., during storms) carried Sargassum that accumulated as wrack and thickened through repeated depositional events until ~300 CE. It took a further ~550 years for a peat-forming mangrove community to colonize Hungry Bay, which then accumulated sediment rapidly, but likely out of equilibrium with regional relative sea-level rise

Author Correction: Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Correction to: NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5, published online 08 May 202

Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s)