Evaluation of exposure-specific risks from two independent samples: A simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies have proposed a simple product-based estimator for calculating exposure-specific risks (ESR), but the methodology has not been rigorously evaluated. The goal of our study was to evaluate the existing methodology for calculating the ESR, propose an improved point estimator, and propose variance estimates that will allow the calculation of confidence intervals (CIs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of two estimators and their associated confidence intervals: 1) current (simple product-based estimator) and 2) proposed revision (revised product-based estimator). The first method for ESR estimation was based on multiplying a relative risk (RR) of disease given a certain exposure by an overall risk of disease. The second method, which is proposed in this paper, was based on estimates of the risk of disease in the unexposed. We then multiply the updated risk by the RR to get the revised product-based estimator. A log-based variance was calculated for both estimators. Also, a binomial-based variance was calculated for the revised product-based estimator. 95% CIs were calculated based on these variance estimates. Accuracy of point estimators was evaluated by comparing observed relative bias (percent deviation from the true estimate). Interval estimators were evaluated by coverage probabilities and expected length of the 95% CI, given coverage. We evaluated these estimators across a wide range of exposure probabilities, disease probabilities, relative risks, and sample sizes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed more bias and lower coverage probability when using the existing methodology. The revised product-based point estimator exhibited little observed relative bias (max: 4.0%) compared to the simple product-based estimator (max: 93.9%). Because the simple product-based estimator was biased, 95% CIs around this estimate exhibited small coverage probabilities. The 95% CI around the revised product-based estimator from the log-based variance provided better coverage in most situations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The currently accepted simple product-based method was only a reasonable approach when the exposure probability is small (< 0.05) and the RR is ≤ 3.0. The revised product-based estimator provides much improved accuracy.</p

Potential Economic Viability of Two Proposed Rifapentine-Based Regimens for Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Rationale: Rifapentine-based regimens for treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are being considered for future clinical trials, but even if they prove effective, high drug costs may limit their economic viability. Objectives: To inform clinical trial design by estimating the potential costs and effectiveness of rifapentine-based regimens for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Methods: We used a Markov model to estimate cost and societal benefits for three regimens for treating LTBI: Isoniazid/ rifapentine daily for one month, isoniazid/rifapentine weekly for three months (self-administered and directly-observed), and isoniazid daily for nine months; a strategy of ‘‘no treatment’ ’ used for comparison. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and instances of active tuberculosis averted were calculated for all arms. Results: Both daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months were less expensive and more effective than other strategies under a wide variety of clinically plausibly parameter estimates. Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month was the least expensive and most effective regimen. Conclusions: Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months should be studied in a large-scale clinical trial for efficacy. Because both regimens performed well even if their efficacy is somewhat reduced

The catch 22 of condoms in US correctional facilities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV infection in US correctional settings, most jails and prisons in the United States prevent inmates from using condoms to prevent STIs/HIV.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This article makes the following arguments to justify a scalable and feasible next step in the prevention of HIV/STIs among inmates: condoms are a basic and essential part of HIV/STI prevention, HIV/STI transmission occurs in the context of corrections, and several model programs show the feasibility of condom distribution in prisons. A lower end estimate for HIV incidence among incarcerated applied to 2,000,000 new inmates annually results in thousands of new HIV infections acquired each year in corrections that could be prevented with condoms in corrections facilities. Programs from parts of the United States, Canada, and much of Europe show how programs distributing condoms in correctional facilities can be safe and effective.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Public health and corrections officials must work together to ensure that condoms and broader sexual disease prevention programs are integrated into US jail and prison health systems.</p

The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

BACKGROUND: The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y), and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%), amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9%) of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8) million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8%) was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI data, and limited evidence to inform on potential clearance of LTBI. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that approximately 1.7 billion individuals were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) globally in 2014, just under a quarter of the global population. Investment in new tools to improve diagnosis and treatment of those with LTBI at risk of progressing to disease is urgently needed to address this latent reservoir if the 2050 target of eliminating TB is to be reached

Programmatic Impact of QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube Implementation on Latent Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment in a Public Health Clinic

Background: QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) is considered an alternative to the tuberculin skin test (TST) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) infection, but the programmatic impact of QFT-GIT implementation is largely unknown. In March, 2010, the Baltimore City Health Department (BCHD) introduced routine QFT-GIT testing for individuals referred to the TB program for suspected latent TB infection (LTBI). Design: Retrospective study comparing LTBI diagnosis and treatment during the 13 months before and after QFT-GIT implementation at the BCHD TB clinic. Results: 607 and 750 individuals were referred by community-providers for suspected LTBI in the pre- and post-QFT-GIT periods, respectively. Most individuals in the pre- and post-QFT-GIT periods were referred on the basis of a positive TST (597/607 [98%] vs. 690/750 [92%], respectively) and were foreign-born (363/607[59%] vs. 507/750[68%], respectively). BCHD performed QFT-GIT testing for 375/543 (69%) eligible individuals in the post-QFT-GIT period, of which 185 (49%) were positive, 178 (47%) were negative, 1 (0.25%) was indeterminate, and 11 (3%) did not yield results. Concordance of QFT-GIT with TST was low (183/352[52%]). Foreign-born individuals had higher proportions of QFT-GIT positivity (57%) than US-born individuals (36%; AOR 3.3 [95%CI 1.7–6.2]). Significantly fewer individuals received a final diagnosis of LTBI in the post-QFT-GIT period (397/567 [70%]) compared to the pre-QFT-GIT period (445/452 [98%], p,0.001). In the post-QFT-GIT period, onl

Comparative radiological features of disseminated disease due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis vs non-tuberculosis mycobacteria among AIDS patients in Brazil

Background: Disseminated mycobacterial disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with HIV-infection. Nonspecific clinical presentation makes the diagnosis difficult and sometimes neglected. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare the presentation of disseminated Mycobacterial tuberculosis (MTB) and non-tuberculous Mycobacterial (NTM) disease in HIV-positive patients from 1996 to 2006 in Brazil. Results: Tuberculosis (TB) was diagnosed in 65 patients (67.7%) and NTM in 31 (32.3%) patients. Patients with NTM had lower CD4 T cells counts (median 13.0 cells/mm3 versus 42.0 cells/mm3, P = 0.002). Patients with tuberculosis had significantly more positive acid-fast smears (48.0% vs 13.6%, P = 0.01). On chest X-ray, miliary infiltrate was only seen in patients with MTB (28.1% vs. 0.0%, P = 0.01). Pleural effusion was more common in patients with MTB (45.6% vs. 13.0%, P = 0.01). Abdominal adenopathy (73.1% vs. 33.3%, P = 0.003) and splenic hypoechoic nodules (38.5% vs. 0.0%, P = 0.002) were more common in patients with TB. Conclusion: Miliary pulmonary pattern on X-ray, pleural effusion, abdominal adenopathy, and splenic hypoechoic nodules were imaging findings associated with the diagnosis of tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients. Recognition of these imaging features will help to distinguish TB from NTM in AIDS patients with fever of unknown origin due to disseminated mycobacterial disease

IL-21 signaling is essential for optimal host resistance against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

IL-21 is produced predominantly by activated CD4(+) T cells and has pleiotropic effects on immunity via the IL-21 receptor (IL-21R), a member of the common gamma chain (gamma(c)) cytokine receptor family. We show that IL-21 signaling plays a crucial role in T cell responses during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection by augmenting CD8(+) T cell priming, promoting T cell accumulation in the lungs, and enhancing T cell cytokine production. In the absence of IL-21 signaling, more CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells in chronically infected mice express the T cell inhibitory molecules PD-1 and TIM-3. We correlate these immune alterations with increased susceptibility of IL-21R(-/-) mice, which have increased lung bacterial burden and earlier mortality compared to WT mice. Finally, to causally link the immune defects with host susceptibility, we use an adoptive transfer model to show that IL-21R(-/-) T cells transfer less protection than WT T cells. These results prove that IL-21 signaling has an intrinsic role in promoting the protective capacity of T cells. Thus, the net effect of IL-21 signaling is to enhance host resistance to M. tuberculosis. These data position IL-21 as a candidate biomarker of resistance to tuberculosis.This work was supported by National Institutes of Health Grants R21 AI100766, R01 AI106725, and P01 AI073748