68 research outputs found

    Utility of different data types for calibrating flood inundation models within a GLUE framework

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    International audienceTo translate a point hydrograph forecast into products for use by environmental agencies and civil protection authorities, a hydraulic model is necessary. Typical one- and two-dimensional hydraulic models are able to predict dynamically varying inundation extent, water depth and velocity for river and floodplain reaches up to 100 km in length. However, because of uncertainties over appropriate surface friction parameters, calibration of hydraulic models against observed data is a necessity. The value of different types of data is explored in constraining the predictions of a simple two-dimensional hydraulic model, LISFLOOD-FP. For the January 1995 flooding on the River Meuse, The Netherlands, a flow observation data set has been assembled for the 35-km reach between Borgharen and Maaseik, consisting of Synthetic Aperture Radar and air photo images of inundation extent, downstream stage and discharge hydrographs, two stage hydrographs internal to the model domain and 84 point observations of maximum free surface elevation. The data set thus contains examples of all the types of data that potentially can be used to calibrate flood inundation models. 500 realisations of the model have been conducted with different friction parameterisations and the performance of each realisation has been evaluated against each observed data set. Implementation of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology is then used to determine the value of each data set in constraining the model predictions as well as the reduction in parameter uncertainty resulting from the updating of generalised likelihoods based on multiple data sources

    Flood vulnerability, risk and social disadvantage: current and future patterns in the UK

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    Present day and future social vulnerability, flood risk and disadvantage across the UK are explored using the UK Future Flood Explorer. In doing so, new indices of neighbourhood flood vulnerability and social flood risk are introduced and used to provide a quantitative comparison of the flood risks faced by more and less socially vulnerable neighbourhoods. The results show the concentrated nature of geographic flood disadvantage. For example, ten local authorities account for fifty percent of the most socially vulnerable people that live in flood prone areas. The results also highlight the systematic nature of flood disadvantage. For example, flood risks are higher in socially vulnerable communities than elsewhere; this is shown to be particularly the case in coastal areas, economically struggling cities and dispersed rural communities. Results from a re-analysis of the Environment Agency’s Long-Term Investment Scenarios (for England) suggests a long-term economic case for improving the protection afforded to the most socially vulnerable communities; a finding that reinforces the need to develop a better understanding of flood risk in socially vulnerable communities if flood risk management efforts are to deliver fair outcomes. In response to these findings the paper advocates an approach to flood risk management that emphasizes Rawlsian principles of preferentially targeting risk reduction for the most socially vulnerable and avoids a process of prioritisation based upon strict utilitarian or purely egalitarian principles

    Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations.

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    An uncertainty analysis of the unsteady flow component (UNET) of the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is presented. For this, the model performance of runs with different sets of Manning roughness coefficients, chosen from a range between 0.001 and 0.9, are compared to inundation data and an outflow hydrograph. The influence of variation in the weighting coefficient of the numerical scheme is also investigated. For the latter, the empirical results show no advantage of using values below 1 and suggest the use of a fully implicit scheme (weighting parameter equals 1). The results of varying the reach scale roughnesses shows that many parameter sets can perform equally well (problem of equifinality) even with extreme values. However, this depends on the model region and boundary conditions. The necessity to distinguish between effective parameters and real physical parameters is emphasised. The study demonstrates that this analysis can be used to produce dynamic probability maps of flooding during an event and can be linked to a stopping criterion for GLUE

    Improving flood inundation models using remotely sensed data

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    The paper discusses the wide variety of ways in which remotely sensed data are being utilized in river flood inundation modeling. Model parameterization is being aided using airborne LiDAR data to provide topography of the floodplain for use as model bathymetry, and vegetation heights in the floodplain for use in estimating floodplain friction factors. Model calibration and validation are being aided by comparing the flood extent observed in SAR images with the extent predicted by the model. The recent extension of this to the observation of urban flooding using high resolution TerraSAR-X data is described. Possible future research directions are considered
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