The Potential for Student Performance Prediction in Small Cohorts with Minimal Available Attributes

The measurement of student performance during their progress through university study provides academic leadership with critical information on each student’s likelihood of success. Academics have traditionally used their interactions with individual students through class activities and interim assessments to identify those “at risk” of failure/withdrawal. However, modern university environments, offering easy on-line availability of course material, may see reduced lecture/tutorial attendance, making such identification more challenging. Modern data mining and machine learning techniques provide increasingly accurate predictions of student examination assessment marks, although these approaches have focussed upon large student populations and wide ranges of data attributes per student. However, many university modules comprise relatively small student cohorts, with institutional protocols limiting the student attributes available for analysis. It appears that very little research attention has been devoted to this area of analysis and prediction. We describe an experiment conducted on a final-year university module student cohort of 23, where individual student data are limited to lecture/tutorial attendance, virtual learning environment accesses and intermediate assessments. We found potential for predicting individual student interim and final assessment marks in small student cohorts with very limited attributes and that these predictions could be useful to support module leaders in identifying students potentially “at risk.”.Peer reviewe

Inducing Probabilistic Grammars by Bayesian Model Merging

We describe a framework for inducing probabilistic grammars from corpora of positive samples. First, samples are {\em incorporated} by adding ad-hoc rules to a working grammar; subsequently, elements of the model (such as states or nonterminals) are {\em merged} to achieve generalization and a more compact representation. The choice of what to merge and when to stop is governed by the Bayesian posterior probability of the grammar given the data, which formalizes a trade-off between a close fit to the data and a default preference for simpler models (`Occam's Razor'). The general scheme is illustrated using three types of probabilistic grammars: Hidden Markov models, class-based $n$-grams, and stochastic context-free grammars.Comment: To appear in Grammatical Inference and Applications, Second International Colloquium on Grammatical Inference; Springer Verlag, 1994. 13 page

Mol. Cell. Proteomics

The term “proteomics” encompasses the large-scale detection and analysis of proteins and their post-translational modifications. Driven by major improvements in mass spectrometric instrumentation, methodology, and data analysis, the proteomics field has burgeoned in recent years. It now provides a range of sensitive and quantitative approaches for measuring protein structures and dynamics that promise to revolutionize our understanding of cell biology and molecular mechanisms in both human cells and model organisms. The Proteomics Specification in Time and Space (PROSPECTS) Network is a unique EU-funded project that brings together leading European research groups, spanning from instrumentation to biomedicine, in a collaborative five year initiative to develop new methods and applications for the functional analysis of cellular proteins. This special issue of Molecular and Cellular Proteomics presents 16 research papers reporting major recent progress by the PROSPECTS groups, including improvements to the resolution and sensitivity of the Orbitrap family of mass spectrometers, systematic detection of proteins using highly characterized antibody collections, and new methods for absolute as well as relative quantification of protein levels. Manuscripts in this issue exemplify approaches for performing quantitative measurements of cell proteomes and for studying their dynamic responses to perturbation, both during normal cellular responses and in disease mechanisms. Here we present a perspective on how the proteomics field is moving beyond simply identifying proteins with high sensitivity toward providing a powerful and versatile set of assay systems for characterizing proteome dynamics and thereby creating a new “third generation” proteomics strategy that offers an indispensible tool for cell biology and molecular medicine

High-Dose Carmustine, Etoposide, and Cyclophosphamide Followed by Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

AbstractAllogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has been shown to be curative in a group of patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). A previous study has demonstrated equivalent outcomes with a conditioning regimen based on total body irradiation and another not based on total body irradiation with preparative therapy using cyclophosphamide, carmustine, and etoposide (CBV) in autologous HCT. We investigated the safety and efficacy of using CBV in an allogeneic setting. Patients were required to have relapsed or be at high risk for subsequent relapse of NHL. All patients had a fully HLA-matched sibling donor. Patients received carmustine (15 mg/kg), etoposide (60 mg/kg), and cyclophosphamide (100 mg/kg) on days −6, −4, and −2, respectively, followed by allogeneic HCT. All patients were treated with cyclosporine and methylprednisolone as prophylaxis for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Thirty-one patients (median age, 46 years) who were felt to be inappropriate candidates for autologous transplantation were enrolled. Each subject had a median of 3 previous chemotherapy regimens. All patients engrafted. Fifteen of 31 patients are alive. Median follow-up time was 11.5 months (range, .4-126). There were 8 deaths due to relapse. Nonrelapse mortality (n = 8) included infection (n = 3), GVHD (n = 2), diffuse alveolar hemorrhage (n = 1), veno-occlusive disease in the setting of concurrent acute GVHD of the liver (n = 1), and leukoencephalopathy (n = 1). Probabilities of event-free survival and overall survival were, respectively, 44% (95% confidence interval, 26%-62%) and 51% (33%-69%) at 1 year and 44% (26%-62%) and 47% (29%-65%) at 5 years. Probability of relapse was 33% (15%-51%) at 1 year and 5 years. Probability of nonrelapse mortality was 31% (13%-49%) at 1 year and 5 years. Incidences were 29% for acute GVHD and 39% for chronic GVHD. None of the 12 patients who developed chronic GVHD has disease recurrence. Patients who had required >3 previous chemotherapy regimens before HCT had an increased probability of relapse. CBV is an effective preparative regimen for patients with aggressive NHL who undergo allogeneic HCT

Mitogen- and Stress-Activated Protein Kinase 1 Regulates Status Epilepticus-Evoked Cell Death in the Hippocampus

Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling has been implicated in a wide range of neuronal processes, including development, plasticity, and viability. One of the principal downstream targets of both the extracellular signal-regulated kinase/MAPK pathway and the p38 MAPK pathway is M itogen- and S tress-activated protein K inase 1 (MSK1). Here, we sought to understand the role that MSK1 plays in neuroprotection against excitotoxic stimulation in the hippocampus. To this end, we utilized immunohistochemical labeling, a MSK1 null mouse line, cell viability assays, and array-based profiling approaches. Initially, we show that MSK1 is broadly expressed within the major neuronal cell layers of the hippocampus and that status epilepticus drives acute induction of MSK1 activation. In response to the status epilepticus paradigm, MSK1 KO mice exhibited a striking increase in vulnerability to pilocarpine-evoked cell death within the CA1 and CA3 cell layers. Further, cultured MSK1 null neurons exhibited a heighted level of N-methyl-D-aspartate-evoked excitotoxicity relative to wild-type neurons, as assessed using the lactate dehydrogenase assay. Given these findings, we examined the hippocampal transcriptional profile of MSK1 null mice. Affymetrix array profiling revealed that MSK1 deletion led to the significant (>1.25-fold) downregulation of 130 genes and an upregulation of 145 genes. Notably, functional analysis indicated that a subset of these genes contribute to neuroprotective signaling networks. Together, these data provide important new insights into the mechanism by which the MAPK/MSK1 signaling cassette confers neuroprotection against excitotoxic insults. Approaches designed to upregulate or mimic the functional effects of MSK1 may prove beneficial against an array of degenerative processes resulting from excitotoxic insults

Effects of beta-alanine supplementation on brain homocarnosine/carnosine signal and cognitive function: an exploratory study

Objectives: Two independent studies were conducted to examine the effects of 28 d of beta-alanine supplementation at 6.4 g d-1 on brain homocarnosine/carnosine signal in omnivores and vegetarians (Study 1) and on cognitive function before and after exercise in trained cyclists (Study 2). Methods: In Study 1, seven healthy vegetarians (3 women and 4 men) and seven age- and sex-matched omnivores undertook a brain 1H-MRS exam at baseline and after beta-alanine supplementation. In study 2, nineteen trained male cyclists completed four 20-Km cycling time trials (two pre supplementation and two post supplementation), with a battery of cognitive function tests (Stroop test, Sternberg paradigm, Rapid Visual Information Processing task) being performed before and after exercise on each occasion. Results: In Study 1, there were no within-group effects of beta-alanine supplementation on brain homocarnosine/carnosine signal in either vegetarians (p = 0.99) or omnivores (p = 0.27); nor was there any effect when data from both groups were pooled (p = 0.19). Similarly, there was no group by time interaction for brain homocarnosine/carnosine signal (p = 0.27). In study 2, exercise improved cognitive function across all tests (P0.05) of beta-alanine supplementation on response times or accuracy for the Stroop test, Sternberg paradigm or RVIP task at rest or after exercise. Conclusion: 28 d of beta-alanine supplementation at 6.4g d-1 appeared not to influence brain homocarnosine/ carnosine signal in either omnivores or vegetarians; nor did it influence cognitive function before or after exercise in trained cyclists

Predation on an Upper Trophic Marine Predator, the Steller Sea Lion: Evaluating High Juvenile Mortality in a Density Dependent Conceptual Framework

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) – the largest of the eared seals – has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates

An experimental and kinetic modelling study of the oxidation of the four isomers of butanol

Butanol, an alcohol which can be produced from biomass sources, has received recent interest as an alternative to gasoline for use in spark ignition engines and as a possible blending compound with fossil diesel or biodiesel. Therefore, the autoignition of the four isomers of butanol (1-butanol, 2-butanol, iso-butanol, and tert-butanol) has been experimentally studied at high temperatures in a shock tube and a kinetic mechanism for description of their high-temperature oxidation has been developed. Ignition delay times for butanol/oxygen/argon mixtures have been measured behind reflected shock waves at temperatures and pressures ranging from approximately 1200 to 1800 K and 1 to 4 bar. Electronically excited OH emission and pressure measurements were used to determine ignition delay times. A detailed kinetic mechanism has been developed to describe the oxidation of the butanol isomers and validated by comparison to the shock tube measurements. Reaction flux and sensitivity analysis indicate that the consumption of 1 butanol and iso-butanol, the most reactive isomers, takes place primarily by H-atom abstraction resulting in the formation of radicals, the decomposition of which yields highly reactive branching agents, H-atoms and OH radicals. Conversely, the consumption of tert butanol and 2-butanol, the least reactive isomers, takes place primarily via dehydration, resulting in the formation of alkenes, which lead to resonance stabilized radicals with very low reactivity. To our knowledge, the ignition delay measurements and oxidation mechanism presented here for 2-butanol, iso-butanol, and tert butanol are the first of their kind.

An individual patient-data comparison of combined modality therapy and ABVD alone for patients with limited-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

Background Treatment options for patients with nonbulky stage IA-IIA Hodgkin lymphoma include combined modality therapy (CMT) using doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine (ABVD) plus involved-field radiation therapy (IFRT), and chemotherapy with ABVD alone. There are no mature randomized data comparing ABVD with CMT using modern radiation techniques. Patients and methods Using German Hodgkin Study Group HD10/HD11 and NCIC Clinical Trials Group HD.6 databases, we identified 588 patients who met mutually inclusive eligibility criteria from the preferred arms of HD10 or 11 (n = 406) and HD.6 (n = 182). We evaluated time to progression (TTP), progression-free (PFS) and overall survival, including in three predefined exploratory subset analyses. Results With median follow-up of 91 (HD10/11) and 134 (HD.6) months, respective 8-year outcomes were for TTP, 93% versus 87% [hazard ratio (HR) 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.78]; for PFS, 89% versus 86% (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.42-1.18) and for overall survival, 95% versus 95% (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.49-2.40). In the exploratory subset analysis including HD10 eligible patients who achieved complete response (CR) or unconfirmed complete response (CRu) after two cycles of ABVD, 8-year PFS was 87% (HD10) versus 95% (HD.6) (HR 2.8; 95% CI 0.64-12.5) and overall survival 96% versus 100%. In contrast, among those without CR/CRu after two cycles of ABVD, 8-year PFS was 88% versus 74% (HR 0.35; 95% CI 0.16-0.79) and overall survival 95% versus 91%, respectively (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.12-1.44). Conclusions In patients with nonbulky stage IA-IIA Hodgkin lymphoma, CMT provides better disease control than ABVD alone, especially among those not achieving complete response after two cycles of ABVD. Within the follow-up duration evaluated, overall survivals were similar. Longer follow-up is required to understand the implications of radiation and chemotherapy-related late effects. Clinical trials The trials included in this analysis were registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: HD10 - NCT00265018, HD11 - NCT00264953, HD.6 - NCT0000256

A Spectrum of an Extrasolar Planet

Of the over 200 known extrasolar planets, 14 exhibit transits in front of their parent stars as seen from Earth. Spectroscopic observations of the transiting planets can probe the physical conditions of their atmospheres. One such technique can be used to derive the planetary spectrum by subtracting the stellar spectrum measured during eclipse (planet hidden behind star) from the combined-light spectrum measured outside eclipse (star + planet). Although several attempts have been made from Earth-based observatories, no spectrum has yet been measured for any of the established extrasolar planets. Here we report a measurement of the infrared spectrum (7.5--13.2 micron) of the transiting extrasolar planet HD209458b. Our observations reveal a hot thermal continuum for the planetary spectrum, with approximately constant ratio to the stellar flux over this wavelength range. Superposed on this continuum is a broad emission peak centered near 9.65 micron that we attribute to emission by silicate clouds. We also find a narrow, unidentified emission feature at 7.78 micron. Models of these ``hot Jupiter'' planets predict a flux peak near 10 micron, where thermal emission from the deep atmosphere emerges relatively unimpeded by water absorption, but models dominated by water fit the observed spectrum poorly