Disability weights for comorbidity and their influence on Health-adjusted Life Expectancy

BACKGROUND: Comorbidity complicates estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) using disease prevalences and disability weights from Burden of Disease studies. Usually, the exact amount of comorbidity is unknown and no disability weights are defined for comorbidity. METHODS: Using data of the Dutch national burden of disease study, the effects of different methods to adjust for comorbidity on HALE calculations are estimated. The default multiplicative adjustment method to define disability weights for comorbidity is compared to HALE estimates without adjustment for comorbidity and to HALE estimates in which the amount of disability in patients with multiple diseases is solely determined by the disease that leads to most disability (the maximum adjustment method). To estimate the amount of comorbidity, independence between diseases is assumed. RESULTS: Compared to the multiplicative adjustment method, the maximum adjustment method lowers HALE estimates by 1.2 years for males and 1.9 years for females. Compared to no adjustment, a multiplicative adjustment lowers HALE estimates by 1.0 years for males and 1.4 years for females. CONCLUSION: The differences in HALE caused by the different adjustment methods demonstrate that adjusting for comorbidity in HALE calculations is an important topic that needs more attention. More empirical research is needed to develop a more general theory as to how comorbidity influences disability

Long-term health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a computer-tailored physical activity intervention among people aged over fifty:modelling the results of a randomized controlled trial

Background: Physical inactivity is a significant predictor of several chronic diseases, becoming more prevalent as people age. Since the aging population increases demands on healthcare budgets, effectively stimulating physical activity (PA) against acceptable costs is of major relevance. This study provides insight into long-term health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a tailored PA intervention among adults aged over fifty. Methods: Intervention participants (N= 1729) received tailored advice three times within four months, targeting the psychosocial determinants of PA. The intervention was delivered in different conditions (i.e. print delivered versus Web based, and with or without additional information on local PA opportunities). In a clustered RCT, the effects of the different intervention conditions were compared to each other and to a control group. Effects on weekly Metabolic Equivalents (MET) hours of PA obtained one year after the intervention started were extrapolated to long-term outcomes (5 year, 10 year and lifetime horizons) in terms of health effects and quality-adjusted life years (OALYs) and its effect on healthcare costs, using a computer simulation model. Combining the model outcomes with intervention cost estimates, this study provides insight into the long-term cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. Results: For all extrapolated time horizons, the printed and the Web based intervention resulted in decreased incidence numbers for diabetes, colon cancer, breast cancer, acute myocardial infarctions, and stroke and increased QALYs as a result of increased PA. Considering a societal Willingness-to-Pay of 20,000/QALY, on a lifetime horizon the printed (ICER =E7,500/QALY) as well as the Web based interventions (ICER = E10,100/QALY) were cost-eftective. On a 5-year time horizon, the Web based intervention was preferred over the printed intervention. On a 10 year and lifetime horizon, the printed intervention was the preferred intervention condition, since the monetary savings of the Web based intervention did no longer outweigh its lower effects. Adding environmental information resulted in a lower cost-effectiveness. Conclusion: A tailored PA intervention in a printed delivery mode, without environmental information, has the most potential for being cost-effective in adults aged over 50

Estimating health-adjusted life expectancy conditional on risk factors: results for smoking and obesity

BACKGROUND: Smoking and obesity are risk factors causing a large burden of disease. To help formulate and prioritize among smoking and obesity prevention activities, estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for cohorts that differ solely in their lifestyle (e.g. smoking vs. non smoking) can provide valuable information. Furthermore, in combination with estimates of life expectancy (LE), it can be tested whether prevention of obesity and smoking results in compression of morbidity. METHODS: Using a dynamic population model that calculates the incidence of chronic disease conditional on epidemiological risk factors, we estimated LE and HALE at age 20 for a cohort of smokers with a normal weight (BMI < 25), a cohort of non-smoking obese people (BMI>30) and a cohort of 'healthy living' people (i.e. non smoking with a BMI < 25). Health state valuations for the different cohorts were calculated using the estimated disease prevalence rates in combination with data from the Dutch Burden of Disease study. Health state valuations are multiplied with life years to estimate HALE. Absolute compression of morbidity is defined as a reduction in unhealthy life expectancy (LE-HALE) and relative compression as a reduction in the proportion of life lived in good health (LE-HALE)/LE. RESULTS: Estimates of HALE are highest for a 'healthy living' cohort (54.8 years for men and 55.4 years for women at age 20). Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' men at age 20 are 7.8 and 4.6 for respectively smoking and obese men. Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' women at age 20 are 6.0 and 4.5 for respectively smoking and obese women. Unhealthy life expectancy is about equal for all cohorts, meaning that successful prevention would not result in absolute compression of morbidity. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that although estimates of LE and HALE are sensitive to changes in disease epidemiology, differences in LE and HALE between the different cohorts are fairly robust. In most cases, elimination of smoking or obesity does not result in absolute compression of morbidity but slightly increases the part of life lived in good health. CONCLUSION: Differences in HALE between smoking, obese and 'healthy living' cohorts are substantial and similar to differences in LE. However, our results do not indicate that substantial compression of morbidity is to be expected as a result of successful smoking or obesity prevention

The cost-effectiveness of increasing alcohol taxes: a modelling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excessive alcohol use increases risks of chronic diseases such as coronary heart disease and several types of cancer, with associated losses of quality of life and life-years. Alcohol taxes can be considered as a public health instrument as they are known to be able to decrease alcohol consumption. In this paper, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of an alcohol tax increase for the entire Dutch population from a health-care perspective focusing on health benefits and health-care costs in alcohol users.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The chronic disease model of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment was used to extrapolate from decreased alcohol consumption due to tax increases to effects on health-care costs, life-years gained and quality-adjusted life-years gained, A Dutch scenario in which tax increases for beer are planned, and a Swedish scenario representing one of the highest alcohol taxes in Europe, were compared with current practice in the Netherlands. To estimate cost-effectiveness ratios, yearly differences in model outcomes between intervention and current practice scenarios were discounted and added over the time horizon of 100 years to find net present values for incremental life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and health-care costs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the Swedish scenario, many more quality-adjusted life-years were gained than in the Dutch scenario, but both scenarios had almost equal incremental cost-effectiveness ratios: €5100 per quality-adjusted life-year and €5300 per quality-adjusted life-year, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Focusing on health-care costs and health consequences for drinkers, an alcohol tax increase is a cost-effective policy instrument.</p

Food and vessels: the importance of a healthy diet to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Contains fulltext : 88602.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)AIM: We attempted to quantify the burden of cardiovascular disease that can be prevented by broader adherence to recommendations on dietary intake of key nutrients. METHODS: A computer model capturing the epidemiology of chronic disease and risk factors in the Dutch population was used to simulate differences in the occurrence of cardiovascular disease under various scenarios defined by levels of intake of saturated and trans fatty acids, fruit, vegetables and fish. The following scenarios were compared with the current situation: (i) the whole population adhering to recommendations (optimum scenario); (ii) a moderate improvement and (iii) increased intake of fruit as has been achieved in an actual intervention ('fruit at work'). Other outcome measures assessed were (differences in) life expectancy and healthy life expectancy for a 40-year-old individual. RESULTS: In the optimum scenario, cumulative incidence prevented over a period of 20 years was 240,000 cases for acute myocardial infarction, or 30% of the expected number of cases, 328,000 (16%) for other coronary heart disease and 215,000 (21%) for stroke. For the moderate improvement scenario, the corresponding figures were 119,000 (14%), 163 000 (8%) and 105,000 (10%), respectively. The individual contributions of each of the separate dietary factors were greatest for fish, followed in decreasing order by fruit, vegetables, saturated and trans fatty acids. Only fish and fruit contributed to a decrease in strokes. In the optimum scenario, 1 year was added to the life expectancy of a 40-year-old individual and half a year in the moderate improvement scenario. CONCLUSION: Broader adherence to recommendations for daily intake of fruit, vegetables, fish and fatty acid composition may take away as much as 20-30% of the burden of cardiovascular disease and result in approximately 1 extra life year for a 40-year-old individual. Promotion of a healthy diet should be given more emphasis in the prevention of cardiovascular disease.1 februari 201