The Flare-energy Distributions Generated by Kink-unstable Ensembles of Zero-net-current Coronal Loops

It has been proposed that the million degree temperature of the corona is due to the combined effect of barely-detectable energy releases, so called nanoflares, that occur throughout the solar atmosphere. Alas, the nanoflare density and brightness implied by this hypothesis means that conclusive verification is beyond present observational abilities. Nevertheless, we investigate the plausibility of the nanoflare hypothesis by constructing a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that can derive the energy of a nanoflare from the nature of an ideal kink instability. The set of energy-releasing instabilities is captured by an instability threshold for linear kink modes. Each point on the threshold is associated with a unique energy release and so we can predict a distribution of nanoflare energies. When the linear instability threshold is crossed, the instability enters a nonlinear phase as it is driven by current sheet reconnection. As the ensuing flare erupts and declines, the field transitions to a lower energy state, which is modelled by relaxation theory, i.e., helicity is conserved and the ratio of current to field becomes invariant within the loop. We apply the model so that all the loops within an ensemble achieve instability followed by energy-releasing relaxation. The result is a nanoflare energy distribution. Furthermore, we produce different distributions by varying the loop aspect ratio, the nature of the path to instability taken by each loop and also the level of radial expansion that may accompany loop relaxation. The heating rate obtained is just sufficient for coronal heating. In addition, we also show that kink instability cannot be associated with a critical magnetic twist value for every point along the instability threshold

Flux-rope twist in eruptive flares and CMEs : due to zipper and main-phase reconnection

Funding: UK Science and Technology Facilities CouncilThe nature of three-dimensional reconnection when a twisted flux tube erupts during an eruptive flare or coronal mass ejection is considered. The reconnection has two phases: first of all, 3D “zipper reconnection” propagates along the initial coronal arcade, parallel to the polarity inversion line (PIL); then subsequent quasi-2D “main phase reconnection” in the low corona around a flux rope during its eruption produces coronal loops and chromospheric ribbons that propagate away from the PIL in a direction normal to it. One scenario starts with a sheared arcade: the zipper reconnection creates a twisted flux rope of roughly one turn (2π radians of twist), and then main phase reconnection builds up the bulk of the erupting flux rope with a relatively uniform twist of a few turns. A second scenario starts with a pre-existing flux rope under the arcade. Here the zipper phase can create a core with many turns that depend on the ratio of the magnetic fluxes in the newly formed flare ribbons and the new flux rope. Main phase reconnection then adds a layer of roughly uniform twist to the twisted central core. Both phases and scenarios are modeled in a simple way that assumes the initial magnetic flux is fragmented along the PIL. The model uses conservation of magnetic helicity and flux, together with equipartition of magnetic helicity, to deduce the twist of the erupting flux rope in terms the geometry of the initial configuration. Interplanetary observations show some flux ropes have a fairly uniform twist, which could be produced when the zipper phase and any pre-existing flux rope possess small or moderate twist (up to one or two turns). Other interplanetary flux ropes have highly twisted cores (up to five turns), which could be produced when there is a pre-existing flux rope and an active zipper phase that creates substantial extra twist.PostprintPublisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems