Forecasting financial returns

Diese Arbeit prognostiziert mit Hilfe von finanziellen und makroökonomischen Variablen den Mehrertrag des Kanadischen S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index über 30-tägige Staatsanleihen. Anhand von Informationskriterien wird in jeder Zeitperiode das optimale Subset aus einem konstanten Basisset erklärender Variablen gewählt und für eine Schätzung verwendet. Diese Schätzung stellt die Entscheidungsgrundlage dar, aufgrund dessen das Portfolio entweder in Aktien oder Staatsanleihen gehalten wird. Durch Simulationen wird die daraus resultierende Kapitalentwicklung über den Zeitraum vom 1. Februar 2002 bis zum 30. Oktober 2009 berechnet. Dabei werden unterschiedlichste Transaktionskosten berücksichtigt. Die Resultate zeigen, dass eine rekursive Wechselstrategie in der zugrunde liegenden Zeitperiode auch bei Transaktionskosten von 0,25 Prozent eine „buy and hold“ Strategie übertrifft.Daily financial and macroeconomic variables are used to forecast one day ahead excess returns on the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index using a recursive forecasting technique. Out of this base set of variables, different model selection criteria are used to chose an optimal subset that is used to run the forecasts at each point in time. On this basis, a rational agent decides to invest either in the stock index or in 30-day Canadian Treasury bills, depending on which asset is predicted to have a higher return. Simulations show the performance of an initial capital stock for the time horizon between 1 February 2002 and 30 October 2009, thereby considering different levels of transaction costs. The results indicate that even for 0.25 percent transaction costs the switching strategy outperforms the buy and hold strategy for the sample time period

Boundary triples and Weyl functions for Dirac operators with singular interactions

In this article we develop a systematic approach to treat Dirac operators $A_{\eta, \tau, \lambda}$ with singular electrostatic, Lorentz scalar, and anomalous magnetic interactions of strengths $\eta, \tau, \lambda \in \mathbb{R}$, respectively, supported on points in $\mathbb{R}$, curves in $\mathbb{R}^2$, and surfaces in $\mathbb{R}^3$ that is based on boundary triples and their associated Weyl functions. First, we discuss the one-dimensional case which also serves as a motivation for the multidimensional setting. Afterwards, in the two and three-dimensional situation we construct quasi, generalized, and ordinary boundary triples and their Weyl functions, and provide a detailed characterization of the associated Sobolev spaces, trace theorems, and the mapping properties of integral operators which play an important role in the analysis of $A_{\eta, \tau, \lambda}$. We make a substantial step towards more rough interaction supports $\Sigma$ and consider general compact Lipschitz hypersurfaces. We derive conditions for the interaction strengths such that the operators $A_{\eta, \tau, \lambda}$ are self-adjoint, obtain a Krein-type resolvent formula, and characterize the essential and discrete spectrum. These conditions include purely Lorentz scalar and purely non-critical anomalous magnetic interactions as well as the confinement case, the latter having an important application in the mathematical description of graphene. Using a certain ordinary boundary triple, we show the self-adjointness of $A_{\eta, \tau, \lambda}$ for arbitrary combinations of the interaction strengths (including critical ones) under the condition that $\Sigma$ is $C^{\infty}$-smooth and derive its spectral properties. In particular, in the critical case, a loss of Sobolev regularity in the operator domain and a possible additional point of the essential spectrum are observed.Comment: 56 pages; to appear in Reviews in Mathematical Physic

Developmental nasal midline masses in children: neuroradiological evaluation

Developmental nasal midline masses in children are rare lesions. Neuroimaging is essential to characterise these lesions, to determine the exact location of the lesion and most importantly to exclude a possible intracranial extension or connection. Our objective was to evaluate CT and MRI in the diagnosis of developmental nasal midline masses. Eleven patients (mean age 4.5years) with nasal midline masses were examined by CT and MRI. Neuroimaging was evaluated for (a) lesion location/size, (b) indirect (bifid or deformed crista galli, widened foramen caecum, defect of the cribriform plate) and direct (identification of intracranially located lesion components or signal alterations) imaging signs of intracranial extension, (c) secondary complications and (d) associated malformations. Surgical and histological findings served as gold standard. Nasal dermoid sinus cysts were diagnosed in 9 patients. One patient was diagnosed with an meningocele and another patient with a nasal glioma. Indirect CT and MRI signs correlated with the surgical results in 10 of 11 patients. Direct CT findings correlated with surgery in all patients, whereas the direct MRI signs correlated in 9 of 11 patients. In 2 patients MRI showed an intracranial signal alteration not seen on CT. Neuroimaging corrected the clinical diagnosis in 1 patient. One child presented with a meningitis. In none of the patients was an associated malformation diagnosed. Intracranial extension is equally well detected by CT and MRI using indirect imaging signs. Evaluating the direct imaging signs, MRI suspected intracranial components in 2 patients without a correlate on CT. This could represent an isolated intracranial component that got undetected on CT and surgery. In 9 patients CT and MRI matched the surgical findings. The MRI did not show any false-negative results. These results in combination with the multiplanar MRI capabilities, the different image contrasts that can be generated by MRI and the lack of radiation favour the use of MRI as primary imaging tool in these young patients in which the region of imaging is usually centred on the radiosensitive eye lense

Decreased admissions and hospital costs with a neutral effect on mortality following lowering of the troponin T cutoff point to the 99th percentile

Background: The implementation of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) assays and a cutoff based on the 99th cTnT percentile in the evaluation of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome has not been uniform due to uncertain effects on health benefits and utilization of limited resources. Methods: Clinical and laboratory data from patients with chest pain or dyspnea at the emergency de¬partment (ED) were evaluated before (n = 20516) and after (n = 18485) the lowering of the hs-cTnT cutoff point from 40 ng/L to the 99th hs-cTnT percentile of 14 ng/L in February 2012. Myocardial infarction (MI) was diagnosed at the discretion of the attending clinicians responsible for the patient. Results: Following lowering of the hs-cTnT cutoff point fewer ED patients with chest pain or dyspnea as the principal complaint were analyzed with an hs-cTnT sample (81% vs. 72%, p < 0.001). Overall 30-day mortality was unaffected but increased among patients not analyzed with an hs-cTnT sample (5.3% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). The MI frequency was unchanged (4.0% vs. 3.9%, p = 0.72) whereas admission rates decreased (51% vs. 45%, p < 0.001) as well as hospital costs. Coronary angiographies were used more frequently (2.8% vs. 3.3%, p = 0.004) but with no corresponding change in coronary interventions. Conclusions: At the participating hospital, lowering of the hs-cTnT cutoff point to the 99th percentile decreased admissions and hospital costs but did not result in any apparent prognostic or treatment benefits for the patients

Rhinologic outcome of endoscopic transnasal-transsphenoidal pituitary surgery: an institutional series, systematic review, and meta-analysis

Purpose We aimed to summarize the available data on the objective rhinologic outcome after endoscopic transnasal-transsphenoidal (ETT) surgery. Methods Retrospective study on a consecutive cohort of treatment-naïve patients undergoing ETT pituitary gland surgery. Additionally, a systematic review and meta-analysis with focus on the rhinologic outcome, including postoperative smell function was performed. Results The institutional series incorporated 168 patients. A concomitant endoscopic septoplasty was performed in 29/168 patients (17.3%). A nasoseptal flap was used for reconstruction of large skull-base defects or high-flow CSF leaks in 4/168 (2.4%) patients. Early postoperative rhinologic complications (< 4 weeks) included epistaxis (3%), acute rhinosinusitis (1.2%) and late postoperative complications (≥ 8 weeks) comprised prolonged crusting (15.6%), symptomatic synechiae (11.9%) and septal perforation (0.6%). Postoperative smell function was not impaired (Fisher’s exact test, p = 1.0). The systematic review included 19 studies on 1533 patients with a median postoperative epistaxis rate of 1.4% (IQR 1.0–2.2), a postoperative acute rhinosinusitis rate of 2.3% (IQR 2.1–3.0), a postoperative synechiae rate of 7.5% (IQR 1.8–19.1) and a postoperative septal perforation rate of 2.2% (IQR 0.5–5.4). Seven studies including a total of 206 patients reported adequate outcome measures for smell function before and after ETT surgery. Only 2/7 studies reported an impairment of smell function postoperatively, especially in patients with nasoseptal flap harvesting. Conclusion Early and late postoperative rhinologic complication rates after ETT surgery for pituitary lesions seem to be low. A thorough evaluation of smell function, in particular in patients at risk for nasoseptal flap harvesting, may be an important factor in optimal postoperative care

d-d Dative Bonding Between Iron and the Alkaline-Earth Metals Calcium, Strontium, and Barium

Double deprotonation of the diamine 1,1 '-(tBuCH(2)NH)-ferrocene (1-H-2) by alkaline-earth (Ae) or Eu(II)metal reagents gave the complexes1-Ae (Ae=Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba) and1-Eu.1-Mg crystallized as a monomer while the heavier complexes crystallized as dimers. The Fe...Mg distance in1-Mg is too long for a bonding interaction, but short Fe...Ae distances in1-Ca,1-Sr, and1-Ba clearly support intramolecular Fe...Ae bonding. Further evidence for interactions is provided by a tilting of the Cp rings and the related(1)H NMR chemical-shift difference between the Cp alpha and beta protons. While electrochemical studies are complicated by complex decomposition, UV/Vis spectral features of the complexes support Fe -> Ae dative bonding. A comprehensive bonding analysis of all1-Ae complexes shows that the heavier species1-Ca,1-Sr, and1-Ba possess genuine Fe -> Ae bonds which involve vacant d-orbitals of the alkaline-earth atoms and partially filled d-orbitals on Fe. In1-Mg, a weak Fe -> Mg donation into vacant p-orbitals of the Mg atom is observed

Controlling Magnonic Spin Current through Magnetic Anisotropy and Gilbert Damping

The magnon propagation length, (MPL) of a ferro/ferrimagnet (FM) is one of the key factors that controls the generation and propagation of thermally-driven spin current in FM/heavy metal (HM) bilayer based spincaloritronic devices. Theory predicts that for the FM layer, MPL is inversely proportional to the Gilbert damping (alpha) and the square root of the effective magnetic anisotropy constant (K_eff). However, direct experimental evidence of this relationship is lacking. To experimentally confirm this prediction, we employ a combination of longitudinal spin Seebeck effect (LSSE), transverse susceptibility, and ferromagnetic resonance experiments to investigate the temperature evolution of MPL and establish its correlation with the effective magnetic anisotropy field, H_K^eff (proportional to K_eff) and alpha in Tm3Fe5O12 (TmIG)/Pt bilayers. We observe concurrent drops in the LSSE voltage and MPL below 200 K in TmIG/Pt bilayers regardless of TmIG film thickness and substrate choice and attribute it to the noticeable increases in H_K^eff and alpha that occur within the same temperature range. This study not only highlights the ability to manipulate MPL by controlling H_K^eff and alpha in FM/HM based spincaloritronic nanodevices, but also shows that the tuning of alpha is more effective than H_K^eff in controlling MPL and, hence, the spincaloritronic efficiency.Comment: 5 main text figure