Dating and Interpretation of Secondary Carbonate Deposits from the Last Interglacial

The age of secondary carbonate deposits has been determined via U/Th dating. According to the investigation of speleothems from the high Alpine Spannagel Cave (Zillertal Alps, Austria), a first warming occurred 135,000 years (135 kyr) ago. Sinter growth was interrupted from 130 kyr to 126 kyr, suggesting, that a cooler period preceded the start of the classical Eemian. Two additional growth interruptions within the Eemian suggest an unstable progression of the Last Interglacial, which terminated at 116 kyr. Thus, the classical Eemian lasted for about 10 kyr, which is the duration the Holocene has already reached. Another speleothem from Spannagel Cave formed during several warm periods of the past 250 kyr. The timing of the growth phases can only partly be explained by northern summer insolation maxima, which are thought to be the main trigger for climatic shifts by most paleoclimate researchers. A better correspondence is achieved by comparing the growth phases with the flux of Galactic Cosmic Rays reconstructed from deep sea sediments. These are probably affecting the condensation processes in clouds and accordingly, the Earth’s energy budget and latent heat transport processes. Spectral analyses that were applied on the stable isotope profiles taken along the growth axis of a stalagmite from Spannagel Cave suggest, that the solar activity influenced Eemian climate, as the detected periodicities are similar to some well–known solar cycles. The existence of cycles with a periodicity of ~1470 years (DANSGAARD/OESCHGER–cycles) in both a stable isotope profile of a Spannagel flowstone and North–Atlantic sediments probably indicates, that the climate of Central Europe and the North–Atlantic circulation pattern are a coupled system. Stalagmites from Oman provided information about the timing and progression of the Last Interglacial in lower latitudes. Sinter growth commenced ~135 kyr ago and continued until ~116 kyr. During this period, the ITCZ has moved further to the North, so that the South Asian Monsoon could reach large parts of the Arabian Peninsula. The main growth phase lasted from 130 to 124 kyr, which coincides with the period of high summer insolation, suggesting, that solar insolation has a major impact on monsoonal strength. This finding is corroborated by the determined ages of sinter, which formed at a well close to the neolithic excavation site Jebel al–Buhais in the United Arab Emirates. The sinter formed during periods, when solar summer insolation was low, i.e. the summer monsoon was weak. Hence, southern ocean cyclones could reach the Arabian Peninsula, as they were not blocked by the south–western winds, that prevailed during times of strong summer monsoon. The dating of several stalagmites from Djara Cave (Egypt) yielded ages >450 kyr; only two stalagmites were dated at ~400 kyr, when the MIS 11 Interglacial prevailed. This interglacial has already been described by other paleoclimatic archives to be the warmest and longest of the past 500 kyr

Die Konzentration IV des Magdalénien von Andernach-Martinsberg, Grabung 1994-1996.

Die Ausgrabungen auf dem Martinsberg zwischen 1994 und 1996 (Andernach 3) führten zur Entdeckung einer weiteren Fundkonzentration des Magdalénien (Konzentration IV). Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit sind die 22 954 Funde und alle Befunde der K IV. Die Fundverteilungen und Zusammenpassungen lieferten im Zusammenhang mit zahlreichen kleinen Siedlungsgruben Argumente für eine Interpretation des Gesamtbefundes als Rest einer Behausung mit einem Durchmesser zwischen sechs und acht Metern. Detaillierte Kartierungen ermöglichten Aussagen zur räumlichen Organisation der Behausung und zu einzelnen Aktivitäten

Implications of changes in seasonal mean temperature for agricultural production systems: three case studies

- The performance of dairy cows will suffer from elevated temperatures, reflecting the extent and uncertainty of projected warming in different scenarios, with a marked increase in heat stress for non-intervention scenarios (A1B and A2) toward the end of the century. This calls for the adoption of protective measures in the management of indoor and outdoor animal environments. - A substantial risk of a prolonged pest control season for the codling moth (an apple pest) is projected toward the end of the century for Northern Switzerland sites, and mid-century for the Ticino. Timely preventive programs are anticipated to represent a key ingredient of adaptation to changing risks from agricultural pests. - Results suggest that in the near future viticulture could benefit from increasing temperatures as a wider range of grape varieties could be grown. Toward the end of the century negative impacts from extreme temperatures are nevertheless expected to become important

Last Interglacial Climate in Northern Sweden—Insights from a Speleothem Record

Continental records with absolute dates of the timing and progression of climatic conditions during the Last Interglacial (LIG) from northern Europe are rare. Speleothems from northern Europe have a large potential as archives for LIG environmental conditions since they were formed in sheltered environments and may be preserved beneath ice sheets. Here, we present δ13C and δ18O values from speleothem Kf-21, from Korallgrottan in Jämtland (northwest Sweden). Kf-21 is dated with five MC-ICPMS U-Th dates with errors smaller than ~1 ka. Kf-21 started forming at ~130.2 ka and the main growth phase with relatively constant growth rates lasted from 127.3 ka to 124.4 ka, after which calcite formation ceased. Both δ13C and δ18O show rapid shifts but also trends, with a range of values within their Holocene counterparts from Korallgrottan. Our results indicate an early onset of the LIG in northern Europe with ice-free conditions at ~130 ka. Higher growth rates combined with more negative δ18O values between ~127.3 and 126.8 ka, interpreted here as warmer and more humid conditions, as well as indications of a millennial-scale cold spell centered at 126.2 ka, resemble findings from speleothem records from other parts of Europe, highlighting that these were regional scale climatic patterns

Last Interglacial Climate in Northern Sweden—Insights from a Speleothem Record

Continental records with absolute dates of the timing and progression of climatic conditions during the Last Interglacial (LIG) from northern Europe are rare. Speleothems from northern Europe have a large potential as archives for LIG environmental conditions since they were formed in sheltered environments and may be preserved beneath ice sheets. Here, we present δ13C and δ18O values from speleothem Kf-21, from Korallgrottan in Jämtland (northwest Sweden). Kf-21 is dated with five MC-ICPMS U-Th dates with errors smaller than ~1 ka. Kf-21 started forming at ~130.2 ka and the main growth phase with relatively constant growth rates lasted from 127.3 ka to 124.4 ka, after which calcite formation ceased. Both δ13C and δ18O show rapid shifts but also trends, with a range of values within their Holocene counterparts from Korallgrottan. Our results indicate an early onset of the LIG in northern Europe with ice-free conditions at ~130 ka. Higher growth rates combined with more negative δ18O values between ~127.3 and 126.8 ka, interpreted here as warmer and more humid conditions, as well as indications of a millennial-scale cold spell centered at 126.2 ka, resemble findings from speleothem records from other parts of Europe, highlighting that these were regional scale climatic patterns

Adaptation options under climate change for multifunctional agriculture: a simulation study for western Switzerland

Besides its primary role in producing food and fiber, agriculture also has relevant effects on several other functions, such as management of renewable natural resources. Climate change (CC) may lead to new trade-offs between agricultural functions or aggravate existing ones, but suitable agricultural management may maintain or even improve the ability of agroecosystems to supply these functions. Hence, it is necessary to identify relevant drivers (e.g., cropping practices, local conditions) and their interactions, and how they affect agricultural functions in a changing climate. The goal of this study was to use a modeling framework to analyze the sensitivity of indicators of three important agricultural functions, namely crop yield (food and fiber production function), soil erosion (soil conservation function), and nutrient leaching (clean water provision function), to a wide range of agricultural practices for current and future climate conditions. In a two-step approach, cropping practices that explain high proportions of variance of the different indicators were first identified by an analysis of variance-based sensitivity analysis. Then, most suitable combinations of practices to achieve best performance with respect to each indicator were extracted, and trade-offs were analyzed. The procedure was applied to a region in western Switzerland, considering two different soil types to test the importance of local environmental constraints. Results show that the sensitivity of crop yield and soil erosion due to management is high, while nutrient leaching mostly depends on soil type. We found that the influence of most agricultural practices does not change significantly with CC; only irrigation becomes more relevant as a consequence of decreasing summer rainfall. Trade-offs were identified when focusing on best performances of each indicator separately, and these were amplified under CC. For adaptation to CC in the selected study region, conservation soil management and the use of cropped grasslands appear to be the most suitable options to avoid trade-offs

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0-10%, an increase in soil loss by 25-35%, and an increase in N-leaching by 30-45%. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to cropland

Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees from detrended stable carbon isotopes

Substantial effort has recently been put into the development of climate reconstructions from tree-ring stable carbon isotopes, though the interpretation of long-term trends retained in such timeseries remains challenging. Here we use detrended δ13C measurements in Pinus uncinata tree-rings, from the Spanish Pyrenees, to reconstruct decadal variations in summer temperature back to the 13th century. The June-August temperature signal of this reconstruction is attributed using decadally as well as annually resolved, 20th century δ13C data. Results indicate that late 20th century warming has not been unique within the context of the past 750 years. Our reconstruction contains greater am-plitude than previous reconstructions derived from traditional tree-ring density data, and describes particularly cool conditions during the late 19th century. Some of these differences, including early warm periods in the 14th and 17th centuries, have been retained via δ13C timeseries detrending - a novel approach in tree-ring stable isotope chronology development. The overall reduced variance in earlier studies points to an underestimation of pre-instrumental summer temperature variability de-rived from traditional tree-ring parameters

Using Ecological Modelling Tools to Inform Policy Makers of Potential Changes in Crop Distribution: An Example with Cacao Crops in Latin America

International audienceSpecies distribution models (SDM) is a powerful simulation tool that has become widely used in the ecological and agronomical sciences. The use of easily available presence data, global downscaled climate layers and software that can run on desktop computer has contributed to their popularity. The most used application is based on maximum entropy models that fit presence data to a series of environmental descriptors. SDM can be used to predict crop distribution under future conditions but the level of uncertainty of those models can be very high. The best use of these models is to be used as generators of hypothesis to be combined with other type of analysis

Comparative Effectiveness of Biologics Across Subgroups of Patients with Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis: Results at Week 12 from the PSoHO Study in a Real-World Setting

Introduction: In routine clinical care, important treatment outcomes among patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) have been shown to vary according to patient demographics and disease characteristics. This study aimed to provide direct comparative effectiveness data at week 12 between anti-interleukin (IL)-17A biologics relative to other approved biologics for the treatment of PsO across seven clinically relevant patient subgroups in the real-world setting. Methods: From the international, non-interventional Psoriasis Study of Health Outcomes (PSoHO), 1981 patients with moderate-to-severe PsO were grouped a priori according to seven clinically relevant demographic and disease variables with binary categories, which were sex (male or female), age ( 30 kg/m2), race (White or Asian), PsO disease duration (< 15 or ≥ 15 years), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) comorbidity (present or absent), and prior biologic use (never or ≥ 1). Across these subgroups, effectiveness was compared between the anti-IL-17A cohort (ixekizumab, secukinumab) versus all other approved biologics and ixekizumab versus five individual biologics. The proportion of patients in each subgroup who achieved 90% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI90) and/or static Physician Global Assessment (sPGA) 0/1, PASI100, or PASI90 at week 12 were assessed. Comparative analyses were conducted using frequentist model averaging (FMA). Missing data were imputed using non-responder imputation. Results: Patients in each of the seven subgroups achieved similar response rates to those of the overall treatment cohort, apart from patients with PsA treated with other biologics who had 7-10% lower response rates. Consequently, patients with comorbid PsA had significantly higher odds of achieving skin clearance at week 12 with anti-IL-17A biologics compared to other biologics. Patients in all subgroups had significantly higher odds of achieving PASI90 and/or sPGA (0,1), PASI100, and PASI90 in the anti-IL-17A cohort relative to the other biologics cohort, except for the Asian subgroup. No sex- or age-specific differences in treatment effectiveness after 12 weeks were identified, neither between the treatment cohorts nor between the individual treatment comparisons. Conclusions: Despite relative consistency of comparative treatment effectiveness across subgroups, the presence of comorbid PsA may affect a patient's clinical response to some treatments. Keywords: Biologic; Comorbidity; Demographic; Effectiveness; Psoriasis; Real-world; Subgroup; Treatment