Characterizing eve: Analysing cybercrime actors in a large underground forum

Underground forums contain many thousands of active users, but the vast majority will be involved, at most, in minor levels of deviance. The number who engage in serious criminal activity is small. That being said, underground forums have played a significant role in several recent high-profile cybercrime activities. In this work we apply data science approaches to understand criminal pathways and characterize key actors related to illegal activity in one of the largest and longest- running underground forums. We combine the results of a logistic regression model with k-means clustering and social network analysis, verifying the findings using topic analysis. We identify variables relating to forum activity that predict the likelihood a user will become an actor of interest to law enforcement, and would therefore benefit the most from intervention. This work provides the first step towards identifying ways to deter the involvement of young people away from a career in cybercrime.Alan Turing Institut

Sperm design and variation in the New World blackbirds (Icteridae)

Post-copulatory sexual selection (PCSS) is thought to be one of the evolutionary forces responsible for the rapid and divergent evolution of sperm design. However, whereas in some taxa particular sperm traits are positively associated with PCSS, in other taxa, these relationships are negative, and the causes of these different patterns across taxa are poorly understood. In a comparative study using New World blackbirds (Icteridae), we tested whether sperm design was influenced by the level of PCSS and found significant positive associations with the level of PCSS for all sperm components but head length. Additionally, whereas the absolute length of sperm components increased, their variation declined with the intensity of PCSS, indicating stabilizing selection around an optimal sperm design. Given the diversity of, and strong selection on, sperm design, it seems likely that sperm phenotype may influence sperm velocity within species. However, in contrast to other recent studies of passerine birds, but consistent with several other studies, we found no significant link between sperm design and velocity, using four different species that vary both in sperm design and PCSS. Potential reasons for this discrepancy between studies are discussed

Assessment of animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) vulnerability in cattle-owning communities of sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) is one of the biggest constraints to livestock production and a threat to food security in sub-Saharan Africa. In order to optimise the allocation of resources for AAT control, decision makers need to target geographic areas where control programmes are most likely to be successful and sustainable and select control methods that will maximise the benefits obtained from resources invested. Methods: The overall approach to classifying cattle-owning communities in terms of AAT vulnerability was based on the selection of key variables collected through field surveys in five sub-Saharan Africa countries followed by a formal Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to identify factors explaining the variations between areas. To categorise the communities in terms of AAT vulnerability profiles, Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was performed. Results: Three clusters of community vulnerability profiles were identified based on farmers’ beliefs with respect to trypanosomiasis control within the five countries studied. Cluster 1 communities, mainly identified in Cameroon, reported constant AAT burden, had large trypanosensitive (average herd size = 57) communal grazing cattle herds. Livestock (cattle and small ruminants) were reportedly the primary source of income in the majority of these cattle-owning households (87.0 %). Cluster 2 communities identified mainly in Burkina Faso and Zambia, with some Ethiopian communities had moderate herd sizes (average = 16) and some trypanotolerant breeds (31.7 %) practicing communal grazing. In these communities there were some concerns regarding the development of trypanocide resistance. Crops were the primary income source while communities in this cluster incurred some financial losses due to diminished draft power. The third cluster contained mainly Ugandan and Ethiopian communities which were mixed farmers with smaller herd sizes (average = 8). The costs spent diagnosing and treating AAT were moderate here. Conclusions: Understanding how cattle-owners are affected by AAT and their efforts to manage the disease is critical to the design of suitable locally-adapted control programmes. It is expected that the results could inform priority setting and the development of tailored recommendations for AAT control strategies

Photonic multilayer structure of Begonia chloroplasts enhances photosynthetic efficiency

Enhanced light harvesting is an area of interest for optimizing both natural photosynthesis and artificial solar energy capture1,2. Iridescence has been shown to exist widely and in diverse forms in plants and other photosynthetic organisms and symbioses3,4, but there has yet to be any direct link demonstrated between iridescence and photosynthesis. Here we show that epidermal chloroplasts, also known as iridoplasts, in shade-dwelling species of Begonia5, notable for their brilliant blue iridescence, have a photonic crystal structure formed from a periodic arrangement of the light-absorbing thylakoid tissue itself. This structure enhances photosynthesis in two ways: by increasing light capture at the predominantly green wavelengths available in shade conditions, and by directly enhancing quantum yield by 5-10% under low-light conditions. These findings together imply that the iridoplast is a highly modified chloroplast structure adapted to make best use of the extremely low-light conditions in the tropical forest understorey in which it is found5,6. A phylogenetically diverse range of shade-dwelling plant species has been found to produce similarly structured chloroplasts7-9, suggesting that the ability to produce chloroplasts whose membranes are organized as a multilayer with photonic properties may be widespread. In fact, given the well-established diversity and plasticity of chloroplasts10,11, our results imply that photonic effects may be important even in plants that do not show any obvious signs of iridescence to the naked eye but where a highly ordered chloroplast structure may present a clear blue reflectance at the microscale. Chloroplasts are generally thought of as purely photochemical; we suggest that one should also think of them as a photonic structure with a complex interplay between control of light propagation, light capture and photochemistry

Multiple organism algorithm for finding ultraconserved elements

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ultraconserved elements are nucleotide or protein sequences with 100% identity (no mismatches, insertions, or deletions) in the same organism or between two or more organisms. Studies indicate that these conserved regions are associated with micro RNAs, mRNA processing, development and transcription regulation. The identification and characterization of these elements among genomes is necessary for the further understanding of their functionality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We describe an algorithm and provide freely available software which can find all of the ultraconserved sequences between genomes of multiple organisms. Our algorithm takes a combinatorial approach that finds all sequences without requiring the genomes to be aligned. The algorithm is significantly faster than BLAST and is designed to handle very large genomes efficiently. We ran our algorithm on several large comparative analyses to evaluate its effectiveness; one compared 17 vertebrate genomes where we find 123 ultraconserved elements longer than 40 bps shared by all of the organisms, and another compared the human body louse, <it>Pediculus humanus humanus</it>, against itself and select insects to find thousands of non-coding, potentially functional sequences.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Whole genome comparative analysis for multiple organisms is both feasible and desirable in our search for biological knowledge. We argue that bioinformatic programs should be forward thinking by assuming analysis on multiple (and possibly large) genomes in the design and implementation of algorithms. Our algorithm shows how a compromise design with a trade-off of disk space versus memory space allows for efficient computation while only requiring modest computer resources, and at the same time providing benefits not available with other software.</p

Modelling of Usual Nutrient Intakes: Potential Impact of the Choices Programme on Nutrient Intakes in Young Dutch Adults

Introduction The Choices Programme is an internationally applicable nutrient profiling system with nutrition criteria for trans fatty acids (TFA), saturated fatty acids, sodium, added sugar and for some product groups energy and fibre. These criteria determine whether foods are eligible to carry a “healthier option” stamp. In this paper a nutrient intake modelling method is described to evaluate these nutritional criteria by investigating the potential effect on nutrient intakes. Methods Data were combined from the 2003 Dutch food consumption survey in young adults (aged 19–30) and the Dutch food composition table into the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment model. Three scenarios were calculated: the “actual intakes” (scenario 1) were compared to scenario 2, where all foods that did not comply were replaced by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria. Scenario 3 was the same as scenario 2 adjusted for the difference in energy density between the original and replacement food. Additional scenarios were calculated where snacks were not or partially replaced and stratified analyses for gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI) and education. Results Calculated intake distributions showed that median energy intake was reduced by 16% by replacing normally consumed foods with Choices compliant foods. Intakes of nutrients with a maximal intake limit were also reduced (ranging from -23% for sodium and -62% for TFA). Effects on intakes of beneficial nutrients varied from an unintentional reduction in fat soluble vitamin intakes (-15 to -28%) to an increase of 28% for fibre and 17% calcium. Stratified analyses in this homogeneous study population showed only small differences across gender, age, BMI and education. Conclusions This intake modelling method showed that with consumption of Choices compliant foods, nutrient intakes shift towards population intake goals for the nutrients for which nutrition criteria were defined, while effects on beneficial nutrients were diverse

The spatial extent of tephra deposition and environmental impacts from the 1912 Novarupta eruption

The eruption of Novarupta within the Katmai Volcanic Cluster, south-west Alaska, in June 1912 was the most voluminous eruption of the twentieth century but the distal distribution of tephra deposition is inadequately quantified. We present new syntheses of published tephrostratigraphic studies and a large quantity of previously un-investigated historical records. For the first time, we apply a geostatistical technique, indicator kriging, to integrate and interpolate such data. Our results show evidence for tephra deposition across much of Alaska, Yukon, the northern Pacific, western British Columbia and northwestern Washington. The most distal tephra deposition was observed around 2,500 km downwind from the volcano. Associated with tephra deposition are many accounts of acid deposition and consequent impacts on vegetation and human health. Kriging offers several advantages as a means to integrate and present such data. Future eruptions of a scale similar to the 1912 event have the potential to cause widespread disruption. Historical records of tephra deposition extend far beyond the limit of deposition constrained by tephrostratigraphic records. The distal portion of tephra fallout deposits is rarely adequately mapped by tephrostratigraphy alone; contemporaneous reports of fallout can provide important constraints on the extent of impacts following large explosive eruptions