Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection

Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the 21st century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter, and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future monthly variability changes in the 17 member ensemble ESSENCE are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases while in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the northern hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and mid northern latitudes in summer

Compensating biases and a noteworthy success in the CMIP5 representation of Antarctic sea ice processes

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate a wide range of historical sea ice areas. Even models with areas close to observed values may contain compensating errors, affecting reliability of their projections. This study focuses on the seasonal cycle of sea ice, including analysis of model concentration budgets. Many models have insufficient autumn ice growth, leading to large winter biases. A subset of models accurately represent sea ice evolution year‐round. However, comparing their winter ice concentration budget to observations reveals a range of behaviors. At least one model has an accurate ice budget, which is only possible due to realistic ice drifts. The CMIP5 generation of model physics and resolution is therefore structurally capable of accurately representing processes in Antarctic sea ice. This implies that substantially improved projections of Antarctic dense ocean water formation and ice sheet melting are possible with appropriate subsetting of existing climate models

CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift

A major feature of projected changes in Southern Hemisphere climate under future scenarios of increased greenhouse gas concentrations is the poleward shift and strengthening of the main eddy-driven belt of mid-latitude near-surface westerly winds (the westerly jet). However, there is large uncertainty in projected twenty-first century westerly jet changes across different climate models. Here the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models were evaluated to assess linkages between diversity in simulated sea ice area (SIA), Antarctic amplification and diversity in projected 21st century changes in the westerly jet following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5). To help disentangle cause and effect in the coupled model analysis, uncoupled atmosphere-only fixed sea-surface experiments from CMIP5 were also evaluated. It is shown that across all seasons approximately half of the variance in projected RCP8.5 jet strengthening is explained statistically by inter-model differences in simulated historical SIA, whereby CMIP5 models with larger baseline SIA exhibit more ice retreat and less jet strengthening in the future. However, links to jet shift are much weaker and only statistically significant in autumn and winter. It is suggested that a significant cross-model correlation between historical jet strength and projected strength change (r = -0.58) is, at least in part, a result of atmospherically-driven historical SIA biases, which then feed back onto the atmosphere in future projections. The results emphasize that SIA appears to act in concert with proximal changes in sea-surface temperature gradients in relation to model diversity in westerly jet projections

Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6

Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high‐level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger‐than‐observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios

Globally Gridded Satellite (GridSat) Observations for Climate Studies

Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them: there is no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multi-satellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full resolution geostationary data at approx.10 km resolution at 3 hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA s National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in the netCDF format using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to quickly and easily process the data. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone

Record low Antarctic sea ice cover in February 2022

On 25 February 2022 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) dropped to a satellite-era record low level of 1.92 × 106 km2, 0.92 × 106 km2 below the long-term mean. The area of sea ice was also at a record low level of 1.24 × 106 km2. Although no individual sector was at a record low, at the minimum there were negative sea ice anomalies in all sectors of the Southern Ocean, with the largest in the Ross (contributing 46%) and Weddell Seas (26%). The Amundsen Sea Low had a record low depth in October/November 2021, with a series of very deep depressions giving strong offshore winds. These accelerated ice loss during the melt season, creating a 1.00 × 106 km2 coastal polynya in the Ross Sea. In the northern Weddell Sea, westerly winds of record strength led to ice export from the region

Loss of mouse Stmn2 function causes motor neuropathy

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by motor neuron degeneration accompanied by aberrant accumulation and loss of function of the RNA-binding protein TDP43. Thus far, it remains unresolved to what extent TDP43 loss of function directly contributes to motor system dysfunction. Here, we employed gene editing to find whether the mouse ortholog of the TDP43-regulated gene STMN2 has an important function in maintaining the motor system. Both mosaic founders and homozygous loss-of-function Stmn2 mice exhibited neuromuscular junction denervation and fragmentation, resulting in muscle atrophy and impaired motor behavior, accompanied by an imbalance in neuronal microtubule dynamics in the spinal cord. The introduction of human STMN2 through BAC transgenesis was sufficient to rescue the motor phenotypes observed in Stmn2 mutant mice. Collectively, our results demonstrate that disrupting the ortholog of a single TDP43-regulated RNA is sufficient to cause substantial motor dysfunction, indicating that disruption of TDP43 function is likely a contributor to ALS

VEGF binding to NRP1 is essential for VEGF stimulation of endothelial cell migration, complex formation between NRP1 and VEGFR2, and signaling via FAK Tyr407 phosphorylation

In endothelial cells, neuropilin-1 (NRP1) binds vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-A and is thought to act as a coreceptor for kinase insert domain-containing receptor (KDR) by associating with KDR and enhancing VEGF signaling. Here we report mutations in the NRP1 b1 domain (Y297A and D320A), which result in complete loss of VEGF binding. Overexpression of Y297A and D320A NRP1 in human umbilical vein endothelial cells reduced high-affinity VEGF binding and migration toward a VEGF gradient, and markedly inhibited VEGF-induced angiogenesis in a coculture cell model. The Y297A NRP1 mutant also disrupted complexation between NRP1 and KDR and decreased VEGF-dependent phosphorylation of focal adhesion kinase at Tyr407, but had little effect on other signaling pathways. Y297A NRP1, however, heterodimerized with wild-type NRP1 and NRP2 indicating that nonbinding NRP1 mutants can act in a dominant-negative manner through formation of NRP1 dimers with reduced binding affinity for VEGF. These findings indicate that VEGF binding to NRP1 has specific effects on endothelial cell signaling and is important for endothelial cell migration and angiogenesis mediated via complex formation between NRP1 and KDR and increased signaling to focal adhesions. Identification of key residues essential for VEGF binding and biological functions provides the basis for a rational design of antagonists of VEGF binding to NRP1

The effects of kisspeptin on β-cell function, serum metabolites and appetite in humans

Aims: To investigate the effect of kisspeptin on glucose-stimulated insulin secretion and appetite in humans. Materials and methods: In 15 healthy men (age: 25.2 ± 1.1 years; BMI: 22.3 ± 0.5 kg m−2), we compared the effects of 1 nmol kg−1 h−1 kisspeptin versus vehicle administration on glucose-stimulated insulin secretion, metabolites, gut hormones, appetite and food intake. In addition, we assessed the effect of kisspeptin on glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in vitro in human pancreatic islets and a human β-cell line (EndoC-βH1 cells). Results: Kisspeptin administration to healthy men enhanced insulin secretion following an intravenous glucose load, and modulated serum metabolites. In keeping with this, kisspeptin increased glucose-stimulated insulin secretion from human islets and a human pancreatic cell line in vitro. In addition, kisspeptin administration did not alter gut hormones, appetite or food intake in healthy men. Conclusions: Collectively, these data demonstrate for the first time a beneficial role for kisspeptin in insulin secretion in humans in vivo. This has important implications for our understanding of the links between reproduction and metabolism in humans, as well as for the ongoing translational development of kisspeptin-based therapies for reproductive and potentially metabolic conditions