Pattern Informatics and its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan

Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m ≥ 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m ≥ 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 ≤ m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japa

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances

Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

International audienceIt is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world

Block and thread intercultural narratives and positioning: conversations with newly arrived postgraduate students

This paper considers how, in the process of positioning that is implicit in every interaction, all of us employ multiple and often competing narratives when we talk about cultural identity and our relationships with new cultural environments. In interviews with newly arrived postgraduate students about their experience of travelling to study abroad, the students employ competing block and thread narratives. Block narratives represent an essentialist discourse of culture. As such, they are easily converted into cultural prejudice by blocking the possibility for understanding and sharing at the point of tolerating an Other who can never be like ‘us’. These are default narratives because of the way in which we are brought up in our societies within a global positioning and politics. Thread narratives instead support a critical cosmopolitan discourse of cultural travel and shared meanings across structural boundaries that act against cultural prejudice. Threads need to be nurtured as alternative forms of engagement. Therefore, there is a place for the researchers to intervene with their own thread narratives. This intervention is both allowed within and supported by an understanding that researchers join with their participants in the creative intercultural events of the interview

Pattern Informatics and Its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan

Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m >= 5) earthquakes for the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m >= 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecasted map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with m >= 5.0. We find that these events occurred in a forecasted area in the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.Comment: 36 pages, 6 figures, 1 tabl

PhD students, interculturality, reflexivity, community and internationalisation

Interviews with a small group of doctoral students at a British university indicate that the students feel that the programme provides an environment within which they develop interculturality through reflexive engagement with the PhD community and in some cases with the participants in their research. Significant here is that they are interpretivist, constructivist qualitative researchers within a larger university community of qualitative researchers where there is a shared reflexivity that is at the core of interculturality. They also bring with them existing cultural complexity with which to engage, build on, make reflexive sense of and resolve in this experience. This complexity which they all share make it difficult to consider them differently as 'international' or 'home' students, which are revealed as inappropriately divisive labels within an intercultural community. Where there are apparent issues with English as a second or other language among some of the students, it is realised that this represents a broader struggle, shared with all students, regarding self-expression in writing. These findings demand cultural belief in whatever backgrounds the students come from. This belief impacts on how we understand internationalisation and the nature of academic knowledge and process

Concorde noise-induced building vibrations John F. Kennedy International Airport

The outdoor and indoor noise levels resulting from aircraft flyovers and certain nonaircraft events were recorded at six home sites along with the associated vibration levels in the walls, windows, and floors of these test homes. Limited subjective tests conducted to examine the human detection and annoyance thresholds for building vibration and rattle caused by aircraft noise showed that both vibration and rattle were detected subjectively in several houses for some operations of both the Concorde and subsonic aircraft. Preliminary results indicate that the relationship between window vibration and aircraft noise is: (1) linear, with vibration levels being accurately predicted from OASPL levels measured near the window; (2) consistent from flyover to flyover for a given aircraft type under approach conditions; (3) no different for Concorde than for other conventional jet transports (in the case of window vibrations induced under approach power conditions); and (4) relatively high levels of window vibration measured during Concorde operations are due more to higher OASPL levels than to unique Concorde source characteristics

Galactose Ingested with a High-Fat Beverage Increases Postprandial Lipemia Compared with Glucose but Not Fructose Ingestion in Healthy Men.

BACKGROUND: Fructose ingestion with a high-fat beverage increases postprandial lipemia when compared with glucose. It is unknown whether other sugars, such as galactose, also increase postprandial lipemia. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess whether galactose ingestion within a high-fat beverage increases postprandial lipemia relative to glucose or fructose. METHODS: Two experiments were conducted, which contrasted different test drinks under otherwise standardized conditions. In Experiment 1, 10 nonobese men (age: 22 ± 1 y; BMI, 23.5 ± 2.2 kg/2) ingested either galactose or glucose (0.75 g supplemented carbohydrate per⋅kilogram body mass) within a high-fat test drink (0.94 g fat per kilogram body mass). In Experiment 2, a separate group of 9 nonobese men (age: 26 ± 6 y; BMI: 23.5 ± 2.6 kg/m2) ingested either galactose or fructose (identical doses as those in Experiment 1) within the same high-fat test drink. Capillary blood was sampled before and at frequent intervals after ingestion of the test drinks for a 300-min period to determine plasma triacylglycerol, glucose, lactate, nonesterified fatty acid, and insulin concentrations. Paired t tests and 2-way, repeated-measures ANOVA were used to compare conditions within each experiment. RESULTS: The incremental AUC for triacylglycerol was greater following galactose ingestion compared with glucose (127 ± 59 compared with 80 ± 48 mmol⋅L-1 × 300 min, respectively; P = 0.04) but not compared with fructose (136 ± 74 compared with 133 ± 63 mmol⋅L-1 ×300 min, respectively; P = 0.91). Plasma lactate concentrations also increased to a greater extent with galactose compared with glucose ingestion (time-condition interaction: P < 0.001) but not fructose ingestion (time-condition interaction: P = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Galactose ingestion within a high-fat beverage exacerbates postprandial lipemia and plasma lactate concentrations compared with glucose but not fructose in nonobese men. These data suggest that galactose metabolism may be more similar to fructose than to glucose, providing a rationale to reassess the metabolic fate of galactose ingestion in humans. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03439878

Concorde noise-induced building vibrations: John F. Kennedy International Airport

Outdoor and indoor noise levels resulting from aircraft flyovers and certain nonaircraft events were recorded at eight homesites and a school along with the associated vibration levels in the walls, windows, and floors at these test sites. Limited subjective tests were conducted to examine the human detection and annoyance thresholds for building vibration and rattle caused by aircraft noise. Both vibration and rattle were detected subjectively in several houses for some operations of both the Concorde and subsonic aircraft. Seated subjects more readily detected floor vibrations than wall or window vibrations. Aircraft noise generally caused more window vibrations than common nonaircraft events such as walking and closing doors. Nonaircraft events and aircraft flyovers resulted in comparable wall vibration levels, while floor vibrations were generally greater for nonaircraft events than for aircraft flyovers. The relationship between structural vibration and aircraft noise is linear, with vibration levels being accurately predicted from overall sound pressure levels (OASPL) measured near the structure. Relatively high levels of structural vibration measured during Concorde operations are due more to higher OASPL levels than to unique Concorde-source characteristics