Integrated assessments of climate variability and change for Australian agriculture - Connecting the islands of knowledge

Key clients for regional or national assessment capabilities are government and industry policymakers, who must deal with constantly changing policy questions. For instance, adaptation to climate change has relatively recently come onto the policy agenda, as has the interaction between adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. 'Integrated assessment' has therefore become a common approach that attempts to demonstrate the policy relevance of science. It is intended to inform policies that ultimately lead to better risk management of agro-ecosystems (amongst other objectives). Increasingly policy stakeholders also demand realistic assessments of uncertainties that are associated with the scenarios underpinning such integrated assessments. This requires quantitative, probabilistic evaluation of risks and opportunities associated with specific scenarios that need to supplement the overall, qualitative assessments. Such evaluations can help to cut through the complexity of policy related issues without sacrificing the holistic perspective needed to maintain policy relevance. Using climate change as an example, we explore the role of quantitative models for integrated assessments and argue that a nested modelling approach (eg. climate model - biophysical model - socio-economic model - engagement model) to address all relevant disciplines, stakeholders and scales not only provides the quantitative information needed, but is also a valuable process to negotiate the complexities of the policy domain. This process might help us move more quickly from impact assessments (ie. unadapted responses) to well-structured scenario planning with adaptation, a process that is both policy and response informing

20th century rainfall variability and the role of large scale climate events within Indo-Pacific region from IPCC AR4 models, reanalysis and observations

[Abstract]: The performance of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report No. 4 (IPCC AR4) models in simulating rainfall variability within Indo-Pacific region is being investigated. Data from 21 different climate models together with National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis and other rainfall observations is being compared. The observational data sets were taken from gridded rainfall Indonesian observation data sets as well as a comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for the globe from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets. The focus of the study is firstly, a model comparison in simulating historical rainfall variability in the region, and secondly, an investigation of the models sensitivity in simulating large scale climate events such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole and its relationship with the rainfall variability over the region. Particular attention also upon the simulation of multi-decadal rainfall variability in the Indo-Pacific region

Seasonal climate forecasts for more effective raingrown grain-cotton production systems

Cropping is a risky business. Our highly variable climate makes it difficult to decide how best to manage crops and cropping systems. What works well one year might not work well the next. To develop better risk management practices, this project uses the APSIM cropping systems model to examine the profitability and sustainability of a range of alternative dryland cotton/grain cropping systems throughout the northern grain region of eastern Australia. It involves working closely with farmer collaborators in Central Queensland, the Darling Downs, the northwest slopes of NSW and the Liverpool Plains

The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon that is generated above the tropical Indian Ocean. It is associated with large convective systems that propagate eastward across the Pacific Ocean. Since it is an atmospheric event limited to the equatorial domain, it was believed that it has little effect on non-tropical regions. However, recent research found correlations between the positioning of the active Madden Julian Oscillation phase along the Equator and rainfall events northeast Australia. The correlations were significant throughout Queensland. The phenomenon is subject to a study by climate scientists at four Australian institutions. It aims to develop a simple predictive tool of rainfall events that are linked with the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation and that is applicable throughout Queensland and possible beyond. The outcome of this research is to be linked with agricultural production systems model in order to help Queensland farmers to better time planting and harvesting, as well as scheduling of contractors whose operations might be delayed by rain

Barley Phenology: Physiological and Molecular Mechanisms for Heading Date and Modelling of Genotype‐Environment‐ Management Interactions

Barley heading date is important in adapting barley genotypes to different environments. Important factors affecting heading date in barley are temperatures, photoperiod and sowing date. Sowing date is a management option to influence heading date. It is used to reduce climatic risks such as frosts and water stress at sensitive periods during crop development. Three major genes control heading date in barley. These genes regulate photoperiod (Ppd-H1 and Ppd-H2), vernalization (Vrn- H1, Vrn-H2 and Vrn-H3) and the duration of the vegetative phase (Eps). The Ppd-H1 locus on chromosome 2(2H) regulates flowering time under long days. Ppd-H2 on 2H regulates phenology under short day length. Vernalization is mainly controlled by three loci (VRN-H1, VRN-H2 and VRN-H3), which interact in an epistatic fashion to determine vernalization sensitivity. Appropriate physiological and simulation frameworks such as that of APSIM-Barley are required to complement breeding efforts in order to determine the location of the Eps genes and describe and quantify the effects of environment and management on gene expression and their impact on yields and quality in barley

Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems

The overall aim of this project is to significantly improve financial profitability, economic efficiency and resource risk management of dryland grain/cotton systems through effective use of seasonal climate forecasts and quantification of climatic variability

Labour productivity: The forgotten yield gap

Crop yields and labour productivity have increased markedly over the past 70 years. In agriculturally advanced countries, increases in labour productivity – that is, increases in the economic output per unit of labour input – have been several-fold greater than corresponding increases in yield. The gap in labour productivity between the Global North and the Global South is now much greater than the yield gap. This large labour productivity gap, unless remedied, will: (i) condemn many farmers in the Global South to live in poverty; and (ii) make them less competitive and force them to follow the well-established trend of exiting farming altogether, which (iii) will contribute to greater dependence on imported food in many countries. Despite this situation, agricultural development agencies tend to emphasise biological yield per unit area to satisfy the increasing demand for more nutritious and varied food products. Policies are skewed towards low-cost food for urbanites, often with benign neglect of the welfare of the rural populace, particularly the women who produce the food. We suggest R&D policies should pay more attention to enhanced labour productivity, while not neglecting increased yield, to meet the dual needs of food for the overall population and prosperity in rural areas. Many technology-based interventions exist to increase labour productivity, nevertheless, single technological fixes are unlikely to bring about major changes. Furthermore, the adoption of new technologies and novel enterprises required to increase labour productivity, particularly those related to high value crops for farmers with limited access to land, depends on an inclusive innovation systems approach. Policies are needed that support the development of new enterprises, soft infrastructure, a stronger industrial base and inclusive partnerships with education providers such as universities, research centres, secondary and tertiary education facilities. This is not to say that producers in the Global South should follow the Global North, rather that policy should focus on interventions that improve labour productivity of both women and men tailored to enhance ongoing development within the local context

Foresight and trade-off analyses : tools for science strategy development in agriculture and food systems research

Foresight and trade-off analyses offer organizations such as CGIAR an opportunity to better prepare for alternative futures through adaptive research strategy and management. This essay introduces a set of papers that explore foresight and trade-off analyses within the context of the major reforms now occurring in the CGIAR. We tease out lessons not only for One CGIAR, but also for international development research organizations more broadly.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models

Biochar improves fertility of a clay soil in the Brazilian Savannah: short term effects and impact on rice yield

The objective of this study was to report single season effects of wood biochar (char) application coupled with N fertilization on soil chemical properties, aerobic rice growth and grain yield in a clayey Rhodic Ferralsol in the Brazilian Savannah. Char application effected an increase in soil pH, K, Ca, Mg, CEC, Mn and nitrate while decreasing Al content and potential acidity of soils. No distinct effect of char application on grain yield of aerobic rice was observed. We believe that soil properties impacted by char application were inconsequential for rice yields because neither water, low pH, nor the availability of K or P were limiting factors for rice production. Rate of char above 16 Mg ha^(−1) reduced leaf area index and total shoot dry matter by 72 days after sowing. The number of panicles infected by rice blast decreased with increasing char rate. Increased dry matter beyond the remobilization capacity of the crop, and high number of panicles infected by rice blast were the likely cause of the lower grain yield observed when more than 60 kg N ha^(−1) was applied. The optimal rate of N was 46 kg ha^(−1) and resulted in a rice grain yield above 3 Mg ha^(−1)