Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

Background Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. Conclusions We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs.This study was commissioned and paid for by the World Health Organization (WHO). Aspinall & Associates and Gibb Epidemiology Consulting LLC provided support in the form of salaries for authors [WA, HJG], but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ sectio

Pathogenic TNF-α drives peripheral nerve inflammation in an Aire-deficient model of autoimmunity

Immune cells infiltrate the peripheral nervous system (PNS) after injury and with autoimmunity, but their net effect is divergent. After injury, immune cells are reparative, while in inflammatory neuropathies (e.g., Guillain Barré Syndrome and chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy), immune cells are proinflammatory and promote autoimmune demyelination. An understanding of immune cell phenotypes that distinguish these conditions may, therefore, reveal new therapeutic targets for switching immune cells from an inflammatory role to a reparative state. In an autoimmune regulator (Aire)-deficient mouse model of inflammatory neuropathy, we used single-cell RNA sequencing of sciatic nerves to discover a transcriptionally heterogeneous cellular landscape, including multiple myeloid, innate lymphoid, and lymphoid cell types. Analysis of cell-cell ligand-receptor interactions uncovered a macrophage-mediated tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) signaling axis that is induced by interferon-γ and required for initiation of autoimmune demyelination. Developmental trajectory visualization suggested that TNF-α signaling is associated with metabolic reprogramming of macrophages and polarization of macrophages from a reparative state in injury to a pathogenic, inflammatory state in autoimmunity. Autocrine TNF-α signaling induced macrophage expression of multiple genes (Clec4e, Marcksl1, Cxcl1, and Cxcl10) important in immune cell activation and recruitment. Genetic and antibody-based blockade of TNF-α/TNF-α signaling ameliorated clinical neuropathy, peripheral nerve infiltration, and demyelination, which provides preclinical evidence that the TNF-α axis may be effectively targeted to resolve inflammatory neuropathies

The nordic aortic valve intervention (NOTION) trial comparing transcatheter versus surgical valve implantation:study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Degenerative aortic valve (AV) stenosis is the most prevalent heart valve disease in the western world. Surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has until recently been the standard of treatment for patients with severe AV stenosis. Whether transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) can be offered with improved safety and similar effectiveness in a population including low-risk patients has yet to be examined in a randomised setting. METHODS/DESIGN: This randomised clinical trial will evaluate the benefits and risks of TAVI using the transarterial CoreValve System (Medtronic Inc., Minneapolis, MN, USA) (intervention group) compared with SAVR (control group) in patients with severe degenerative AV stenosis. Randomisation ratio is 1:1, enrolling a total of 280 patients aged 70 years or older without significant coronary artery disease and with a low, moderate, or high surgical risk profile. Trial outcomes include a primary composite outcome of myocardial infarction, stroke, or all-cause mortality within the first year after intervention (expected rates 5% for TAVI, 15% for SAVR). Exploratory safety outcomes include procedure complications, valve re-intervention, and cardiovascular death, as well as cardiac, cerebral, pulmonary, renal, and vascular complications. Exploratory efficacy outcomes include New York Heart Association functional status, quality of life, and valve prosthesis and cardiac performance. Enrolment began in December 2009, and 269 patients have been enrolled up to December 2012. DISCUSSION: The trial is designed to evaluate the performance of TAVI in comparison with SAVR. The trial results may influence the choice of treatment modality for patients with severe degenerative AV stenosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT0105717

Example calibration questions used in WHO global burden of foodborne disease source attribution expert elicitation.

<p>Example calibration questions used in WHO global burden of foodborne disease source attribution expert elicitation.</p