The impact of landscape sparsification on modelling and analysis of the invasion process

Climate change is a major threat to species, unless their populations are able to invade and colonise new landscapes of more suitable environment. In this paper, we propose a new model of the invasion process using a tool of landscape network sparsification to efficiently estimate a duration of the process. More specifically, we aim to simplify the structure of large landscapes using the concept of sparsification in order to substantially decrease the time required to compute a good estimate of the invasion time in these landscapes. For this purpose, two different simulation methods have been compared: full and R-local simulations, which are based on the concept of dense and sparse networks, respectively. These two methods are applied to real heterogeneous landscapes in the United Kingdom to compute the total estimated time to invade landscapes. We examine how the duration of the invasion process is affected by different factors, such as dispersal coefficient, landscape quality and landscape size. Extensive evaluations have been carried out, showing that the R-local method approximates the duration of the invasion process to high accuracy using a substantially reduced computation time

Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly Plebejus argus at the northern edge of its range

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordSpecies are often observed to occur in restricted patches of particularly warm microclimate at their high latitude/altitude geographic range margin. In these areas, global warming is expected to cause small-scale expansion of the occupied area, but most previous studies of range expansion have used very coarse scale data. Using high resolution microclimate models together with detailed field surveys, we tested whether the butterfly Plebejus argus, occurring on limestone grassland in north Wales, was responding as might be expected due to climate change in the last 30-40 yr. The abundance of adult Plebejus argus at 100 m resolution in 2011 was strongly affected by elevation and near-ground temperatures in May. A statistical model including microclimate, fitted to 2011 data, was successful (67% correct) at hindcasting the occurrence of Plebejus argus in 1983 when the average May air temperature was 1.4°C cooler. However, the model was less accurate at hindcasting occurrences in 1972 (50% correct). Given the distribution of micro-sites in this landscape, we predict that further warming of approximately 1°C would make the majority of sites highly microclimatically suitable for this species. There are a growing number of long-term studies of range change, and investigations into the mechanisms driving them, but still surprisingly few that explicitly make and test predictions with independent data. Our tests are a valuable example of how accurate predictions of distribution change can be, but also of the inevitable uncertainties. Improved understanding of how well models predict will be very important to plan robust climate change adaptation measures.JAH, JJB, RJW and CDT were supported by NERC grant NE/G006377/1 (). Fieldwork by JAH and NL was supported by a pump-priming grant from the Dept of Biology, Univ. of York

Using variability and VLBI to measure cosmological distances

In this paper, we propose a new approach to determining cosmological distances to active Galactic nuclei (AGNs) via light travel-time arguments, which can be extended from nearby sources to very high redshift sources. The key assumption is that the variability seen in AGNs is constrained by the speed of light and therefore provides an estimate of the linear size of an emitting region. This can then be compared with the angular size measured with very long baseline interferometryer to derive a distance. We demonstrate this approach on a specific well-studied low-redshift (z = 0.0178) source 3C 84 (NGC 1275), which is the bright radio core of the Perseus Cluster. We derive an angular diameter distance including statistical errors of D-A = 72(-6)(+5) Mpc for this source, which is consistent with other distance measurements at this redshift. Possible sources of systematic errors and ways to correct for them are discussed

A proof of concept pilot trial of probiotics in symptomatic oral lichen planus (CABRIO)

OBJECTIVE: To preliminary evaluate the clinical effects of probiotics in individuals with symptomatic oral lichen planus and the possible mechanisms of action. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A group of 30 individuals with symptomatic oral lichen planus were recruited in a randomised double-blind parallel group controlled (1:1) proof-of-concept pilot trial of probiotic VSL#3 vs placebo. Efficacy outcomes included changes in pain numeric rating scale, oral disease severity score and the chronic oral mucosal disease questionnaire. Adverse effects, home diary and withdrawals were assessed as feasibility outcomes. Mechanistic outcomes included changes in salivary and serum levels of CXCL10 and IFN-γ and in oral microbial composition. RESULTS: The probiotic VSL#3 was safe and well tolerated. We observed no statistically significant change in pain, disease activity, quality of life, serum/salivary CXCL10 or oral microbial composition with respect to placebo. Salivary IFN-γ levels demonstrate a trend for a reduced level in the active group (p = 0.082) after 30 days of probiotic consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The present proof-of-concept study provides some weak not convincing indication of biological and clinical effects of probiotic VSL#3 in individuals with painful oral lichen planus. Further research in this field is needed, with the current study providing useful information to the design of future clinical trials

A case of septicaemic anthrax in an intravenous drug user

<p><b>Background:</b> In 2000, Ringertz et al described the first case of systemic anthrax caused by injecting heroin contaminated with anthrax. In 2008, there were 574 drug related deaths in Scotland, of which 336 were associated with heroin and or morphine. We report a rare case of septicaemic anthrax caused by injecting heroin contaminated with anthrax in Scotland.</p> <p><b>Case Presentation:</b> A 32 year old intravenous drug user (IVDU), presented with a 12 hour history of increasing purulent discharge from a chronic sinus in his left groin. He had a tachycardia, pyrexia, leukocytosis and an elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). He was treated with Vancomycin, Clindamycin, Ciprofloxacin, Gentamicin and Metronidazole. Blood cultures grew Bacillus anthracis within 24 hours of presentation. He had a computed tomography (CT) scan and magnetic resonance imagining (MRI) of his abdomen, pelvis and thighs performed. These showed inflammatory change relating to the iliopsoas and an area of necrosis in the adductor magnus.</p> <p>He underwent an exploration of his left thigh. This revealed chronically indurated subcutaneous tissues with no evidence of a collection or necrotic muscle. Treatment with Vancomycin, Ciprofloxacin and Clindamycin continued for 14 days. Negative Pressure Wound Therapy (NPWT) device was applied utilising the Venturi™ wound sealing kit. Following 4 weeks of treatment, the wound dimensions had reduced by 77%.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Although systemic anthrax infection is rare, it should be considered when faced with severe cutaneous infection in IVDU patients. This case shows that patients with significant bacteraemia may present with no signs of haemodynamic compromise. Prompt recognition and treatment with high dose IV antimicrobial therapy increases the likelihood of survival. The use of simple wound therapy adjuncts such as NPWT can give excellent wound healing results.</p&gt

Identification of genes expressed by immune cells of the colon that are regulated by colorectal cancer-associated variants.

A locus on human chromosome 11q23 tagged by marker rs3802842 was associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) in a genome-wide association study; this finding has been replicated in case-control studies worldwide. In order to identify biologic factors at this locus that are related to the etiopathology of CRC, we used microarray-based target selection methods, coupled to next-generation sequencing, to study 103 kb at the 11q23 locus. We genotyped 369 putative variants from 1,030 patients with CRC (cases) and 1,061 individuals without CRC (controls) from the Ontario Familial Colorectal Cancer Registry. Two previously uncharacterized genes, COLCA1 and COLCA2, were found to be co-regulated genes that are transcribed from opposite strands. Expression levels of COLCA1 and COLCA2 transcripts correlate with rs3802842 genotypes. In colon tissues, COLCA1 co-localizes with crystalloid granules of eosinophils and granular organelles of mast cells, neutrophils, macrophages, dendritic cells and differentiated myeloid-derived cell lines. COLCA2 is present in the cytoplasm of normal epithelial, immune and other cell lineages, as well as tumor cells. Tissue microarray analysis demonstrates the association of rs3802842 with lymphocyte density in the lamina propria (p = 0.014) and levels of COLCA1 in the lamina propria (p = 0.00016) and COLCA2 (tumor cells, p = 0.0041 and lamina propria, p = 6 × 10(-5)). In conclusion, genetic, expression and immunohistochemical data implicate COLCA1 and COLCA2 in the pathogenesis of colon cancer. Histologic analyses indicate the involvement of immune pathways

Ultrasonic partial glossectomy

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes

Holocene deglaciation and glacier readvances on the Fildes Peninsula and King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), South Shetland Islands, NW Antarctic Peninsula

To provide insights into glacier-climate dynamics of the South Shetland Islands (SSI), NW Antarctic Peninsula, we present a new deglaciation and readvance model for the Bellingshausen Ice Cap (BIC) on Fildes Peninsula and for King George Island/Isla 25 de Mayo (KGI) ~62°S. Deglaciation on KGI began after c. 15 ka cal BP and had progressed to within present-day limits on the Fildes Peninsula, its largest ice-free peninsula, by c. 6.6–5.3 ka cal BP. Probability density phase analysis of chronological data constraining Holocene glacier advances on KGI revealed up to eight 95% probability ‘gaps’ during which readvances could have occurred. These are grouped into four stages – Stage 1: a readvance and marine transgression, well-constrained by field data, between c. 7.4–6.6 ka cal BP; Stage 2: four probability ‘gaps’, less well-constrained by field data, between c. 5.3–2.2 ka cal BP; Stage 3: a well-constrained but restricted ‘readvance’ between c. 1.7–1.5 ka; Stage 4: two further minor ‘readvances’, one less well-constrained by field data between c. 1.3–0.7 ka cal BP (68% probability), and a ‘final’ well-constrained ‘readvance’ after 1950 CE) is associated with recent warming/more positive SAM-like conditions