Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the boreal summer insolation maximum/precession minimum and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing pacing the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~ 13 kyr) and longer (~ 28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO2, representing a characteristic timescale of interglacial decline. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial inception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than the instantaneous forcing strength at inception

Coupled Mg/Ca and clumped isotope analyses of foraminifera provide consistent water temperatures

The reliable determination of past seawater temperature is fundamental to paleoclimate studies. We test the robustness of two paleotemperature proxies by combining Mg/Ca and clumped isotopes (Δ47) on the same specimens of core top planktonic foraminifera. The strength of this approach is that Mg/Ca and Δ47 are measured on the same specimens of foraminifera, thereby providing two independent estimates of temperature. This replication constitutes a rigorous test of individual methods with the advantage that the same approach can be applied to fossil specimens. Aliquots for Mg/Ca and clumped analyses are treated in the same manner following a modified cleaning procedure of foraminifera for trace element and isotopic analyses. We analysed eight species of planktonic foraminifera from coretop samples over a wide range of temperatures from 2 to 29°C. We provide a new clumped isotope temperature calibrations using subaqueous cave carbonates, which is consistent with recent studies. Tandem Mg/Ca–Δ47 results follow an exponential curve as predicted by temperature calibration equations. Observed deviations from the predicted Mg/Ca-Δ47 relationship are attributed to the effects of Fe-Mn oxide coatings, contamination, or dissolution of foraminiferal tests. This coupled approach provides a high degree of confidence in temperature estimates when Mg/Ca and Δ47 yield concordant results, and can be used to infer the past δ18O of seawater (δ18Osw) for paleoclimate studies

Climate variability and ice-sheet dynamics during the last three glaciations

AbstractA composite North Atlantic record from DSDP Site 609 and IODP Site U1308 spans the past 300,000 years and shows that variability within the penultimate glaciation differed substantially from that of the surrounding two glaciations. Hematite-stained grains exhibit similar repetitive down-core variations within the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8 and 4–2 intervals, but little cyclic variability within the MIS 6 section. There is also no petrologic evidence, in terms of detrital carbonate-rich (Heinrich) layers, for surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet through the Hudson Strait during MIS 6. Rather, very high background concentration of iceberg-rafted debris (IRD) indicates near continuous glacial meltwater input that likely increased thermohaline disruption sensitivity to relatively weak forcing events, such as expanded sea ice over deepwater formation sites. Altered (sub)tropical precipitation patterns and Antarctic warming during high orbital precession and low 65°N summer insolation appear related to high abundance of Icelandic glass shards and southward sea ice expansion. Differing European and North American ice sheet configurations, perhaps aided by larger variations in eccentricity leading to cooler summers, may have contributed to the relative stability of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in the Hudson Strait region during MIS 6

Drought, agricultural adaptation, and sociopolitical collapse in the Maya Lowlands

Paleoclimate records indicate a series of severe droughts was associated with societal collapse of the Classic Maya during the Terminal Classic period (∼800–950 C.E.). Evidence for drought largely derives from the drier, less populated northern Maya Lowlands but does not explain more pronounced and earlier societal disruption in the relatively humid southern Maya Lowlands. Here we apply hydrogen and carbon isotope compositions of plant wax lipids in two lake sediment cores to assess changes in water availability and land use in both the northern and southern Maya lowlands. We show that relatively more intense drying occurred in the southern lowlands than in the northern lowlands during the Terminal Classic period, consistent with earlier and more persistent societal decline in the south. Our results also indicate a period of substantial drying in the southern Maya Lowlands from ∼200 C.E. to 500 C.E., during the Terminal Preclassic and Early Classic periods. Plant wax carbon isotope records indicate a decline in C_4 plants in both lake catchments during the Early Classic period, interpreted to reflect a shift from extensive agriculture to intensive, water-conservative maize cultivation that was motivated by a drying climate. Our results imply that agricultural adaptations developed in response to earlier droughts were initially successful, but failed under the more severe droughts of the Terminal Classic period

Coupled measurements of δ18O and δD of hydration water and salinity of fluid inclusions in gypsum from the Messinian Yesares Member, Sorbas Basin (SE Spain)

Financial support was provided by Clare College Geological Research Fund to N.P. Evans. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007–2013)/ERC Grant Agreement n. 339694 (Water Isotopes of Hydrated Minerals) to D.A. Hodell.We studied one cycle (Cycle 6) of gypsum-marl deposition from the Messinian Yesares Member in Sorbas Basin, Spain. The objective was to reconstruct the changing environment of deposition and its relation to astronomically-forced climate change. The δ18O and δD of gypsum hydration water (CaSO4 • 2H2O) and salinity of fluid inclusions were measured in the same samples to test if they record the composition of the mother fluid from which gypsum was precipitated. Water isotopes are highly correlated with fluid inclusion salinity suggesting the hydration water has not exchanged after formation. The relatively low water isotope values and fluid inclusion salinities indicate a significant influence of meteoric water, whereas δ34S, δ18OSO4 and 87Sr/86Sr support a dominant marine origin for the gypsum deposits. The discrepancy between water and elemental isotope signatures can be reconciled if meteoric water dissolved previously deposited marine sulfates supplying calcium and sulfate ions to the basin which maintained gypsum saturation. This recycling process accounts for the marine δ34S, δ18OSO4 and 87Sr/86Sr signatures, whereas the low δ18O and δD values of gypsum hydration water and fluid inclusion salinities reflect the influence of freshwater. The cyclic deposition of gypsum and marl in the Yesares Member has previously been interpreted to reflect changing climate related to Earth's precession cycle. We demonstrate that the δ18O, δD and salinity of the parent brine increased from low values at the base of the cycle to a maximum in the massive gypsum palisade, and decreased again to lower values in the supercones at the top of the cycle. This pattern, together with changes in mineralogy (calcite-dolomite-gypsum), is consistent with a precession-driven change in climate with wettest conditions (summer insolation maxima) associated with the base of the calcium carbonate marls and driest conditions (summer insolation minima) during formation of the gypsum palisade.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Physical weathering of carbonate host-rock by precipitation of soluble salts in caves: A case study in El Orón-Arco Cave (Region of Murcia, SE Spain)

The dissolution of carbonate host-rock by freshwater in phreatic or vadose conditions is the most common mechanism for the formation of caves; however, circulation of saline solutions through carbonate materials and precipitation of soluble salts may also play an important role. We studied the stable isotope composition (δ18O and δ34S of sulfate, δ18O and δD of structurally-bound gypsum hydration water and 87Sr/86Sr) and salinity of fluid inclusions in gypsum speleothems found in El Orón-Arco Cave (Cartagena, SE Spain). We suggest that physical weathering of carbonate host-rock was driven by precipitation of soluble sea-salts (mostly gypsum and halite), and this process controlled the recent geomorphological evolution of the cave. The Triassic carbonate host-rock shows clear evidence for salt weathering, including gypsum/halite infillings in cracks of the bedrock, mechanical spalling of the carbonate, and detachment of rock fragments that lead to the formation cave voids and in-situ accumulations of piles of unsorted rubble. Sulfur and oxygen isotopes of gypsum sulfate (3.0‰ < δ18O < 11.6‰ and 16.7‰ < δ34S < 20.7‰) are generally lower than modern seawater sulfate and suggest contributions from a 34S-depleted source (i.e. oxidation of pyrite). The δ18O and δD of gypsum hydration water are relatively low compared to expected values for the evaporation of pure seawater to gypsum saturation, suggesting that gypsum precipitation involved a secondary calcium-sulfate source or recycling of gypsum from previous stages, along with mixing of seawater and meteoric water seepage to the cave. The 87Sr/86Sr in gypsum shows intermediate values between modern seawater and Triassic carbonate values because of interaction between the solution and the bedrock. The salinities of the speleothem-forming solutions are relatively high (13.2 ± 3.2 wt% eq. NaCl) compared to gypsum formed from evaporated brackish solutions (i.e. ~4–8 wt% eq. NaCl) and indicate dissolution of earlier evaporites before secondary gypsum precipitation. This cave-forming mechanism, which is related to saline water circulation and precipitation of evaporitic minerals, may be common in other coastal caves

Adaptation to Variable Environments, Resilience to Climate Change: Investigating Land, Water and Settlement in Indus Northwest India

This paper explores the nature and dynamics of adaptation and resilience in the face of a diverse and varied environmental and ecological context using the case study of South Asia’s Indus Civilization (ca. 3000–1300 BC). Most early complex societies developed in regions where the climatic parameters faced by ancient subsistence farmers were varied but rain falls primarily in one season. In contrast, the Indus Civilization developed in a specific environmental context that spanned a very distinct environmental threshold, where winter and summer rainfall systems overlap. There is now evidence to show that this region was directly subject to climate change during the period when the Indus Civilization was at its height (ca. 2500–1900 BC). The Indus Civilization, therefore, provides a unique opportunity to understand how an ancient society coped with diverse and varied ecologies and change in the fundamental environmental parameters. This paper integrates research carried out as part of the Land, Water and Settlement project in northwest India between 2007 and 2014. Although coming from only one of the regions occupied by Indus populations, these data necessitate the reconsideration of several prevailing views about the Indus Civilization as a whole and invigorate discussion about human-environment interactions and their relationship to processes of cultural transformation

Detection of significant climatic precession variability in early Pleistocene glacial cycles

Despite having a large influence on summer insolation, climatic precession is thought to account for little variance in early Pleistocene proxies of ice volume and deep-water temperature. Various mechanisms have been suggested to account for the dearth of precession variability, including meridional insolation gradients, interhemispheric cancellation of ice-volume changes, and antiphasing between the duration and intensity of summer insolation. We employ a method termed Empirical Nonlinear Orbital Fitting (ENOF) to estimate the amplitudes of obliquity and precession forcing in early Pleistocene proxies and their respective leads or lags relative to the timing of orbital variations. Analysis of a high-resolution North Atlantic benthic record, comprising data from IODP sites U1308 and U1313, indicates a larger precession contribution than previously recognized, with an average precession-to-obliquity amplitude ratio of 0.51 (0.30-0.76 95% confidence interval) in the rate-of-change of between 3 and 1 Ma. Averaged when eccentricity exceeds 0.05, this ratio rises to 1.18 (0.84-1.53). Additional support for precession's importance in the early Pleistocene comes from its estimated amplitude covarying with eccentricity, analyses of other benthic records yielding similar orbital amplitude ratios, and use of an orbitally-independent timescale also showing significant precession. Precession in phase with Northern Hemisphere summer intensity steadily intensifies throughout the Pleistocene, in agreement with its more common identification during the late Pleistocene. A Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and energy balance model run over the early Pleistocene predicts orbital amplitudes consistent with observations when a cooling commensurate with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is imposed. These results provide strong evidence that glaciation is influenced by climatic precession during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, and are consistent with hypotheses that glaciation is controlled by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation

Carbon isotope offsets between benthic foraminifer species of the genus Cibicides (Cibicidoides) in the glacial sub-Antarctic Atlantic

©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Epibenthic foraminifer δ 13 C measurements are valuable for reconstructing past bottom water dissolved inorganic carbon δ 13 C (δ 13 C DIC ), which are used to infer global ocean circulation patterns. Epibenthic δ 13 C, however, may also reflect the influence of 13 C-depleted phytodetritus, microhabitat changes, and/or variations in carbonate ion concentrations. Here we compare the δ 13 C of two benthic foraminifer species, Cibicides kullenbergi and Cibicides wuellerstorfi, and their morphotypes, in three sub-Antarctic Atlantic sediment cores over several glacial-interglacial transitions. These species are commonly assumed to be epibenthic, living above or directly below the sediment-water interface. While this might be consistent with the small δ 13 C offset that we observe between these species during late Pleistocene interglacial periods (Δδ 13 C = −0.19 ± 0.31‰, N = 63), it is more difficult to reconcile with the significant δ 13 C offset that is found between these species during glacial periods (Δδ 13 C = −0.76 ± 0.44‰, N = 44). We test possible scenarios by analyzing Uvigerina spp. δ 13 C and benthic foraminifer abundances: (1) C. kullenbergi δ 13 C is biased to light values either due to microhabitat shifts or phytodetritus effects and (2) C. wuellerstorfi δ 13 C is biased to heavy values, relative to long-term average conditions, for instance by recording the sporadic occurrence of less depleted deepwater δ 13 C DIC . Neither of these scenarios can be ruled out unequivocally. However, our findings emphasize that supposedly epibenthic foraminifer δ 13 C in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic may reflect several factors rather than being solely a function of bottom water δ 13 C DIC . This could have a direct bearing on the interpretation of extremely light South Atlantic δ 13 C values at the Last Glacial Maximum

Magnetic unmixing of first-order reversal curve diagrams using principal component analysis

We describe a quantitative magnetic unmixing method based on principal component analysis (PCA) of first-order reversal curve (FORC) diagrams. For PCA we resample FORC distributions on grids that capture diagnostic signatures of single-domain (SD), pseudo-single-domain (PSD), and multi-domain (MD) magnetite, as well as of minerals such as hematite. Individual FORC diagrams are recast as linear combinations of end-member (EM) FORC diagrams, located at user-defined positions in PCA space. The EM selection is guided by constraints derived from physical modeling and imposed by data scatter. We investigate temporal variations of two EMs in bulk North Atlantic sediment cores collected from the Rockall Trough and the Iberian Continental Margin. Sediments from each site contain a mixture of magnetosomes and granulometrically distinct detrital magnetite. We also quantify the spatial variation of three EM components (a coarse silt-sized MD component, a fine silt-sized PSD component, and a mixed clay-sized component containing both SD magnetite and hematite) in surficial sediments along the flow path of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). These samples were separated into granulometric fractions, which helped constrain EM definition. PCA-based unmixing reveals systematic variations in EM relative abundance as a function of distance along NADW flow. Finally, we apply PCA to the combined dataset of Rockall Trough and NADW sediments, which can be recast as a four-EM mixture, providing enhanced discrimination between components. Our method forms the foundation of a general solution to the problem of unmixing multi-component magnetic mixtures, a fundamental task of rock magnetic studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved