A sequential dynamic Bayesian network for pore pressure estimation with uncertainty quantification

Pore-pressure estimation is an important part of oil-well drilling, since drilling into unexpected highly pressured fluids can be costly and dangerous. However, standard estimation methods rarely account for the many sources of uncertainty, or for the multivariate nature of the system. We propose the pore pressure sequential dynamic Bayesian network (PP SDBN) as an appropriate solution to both these issues. The PP SDBN models the relationships between quantities in the pore pressure system, such as pressures, porosity, lithology and wireline log data, using conditional probability distributions based on geophysical relationships to capture our uncertainty about these variables and the relationships between them. When wireline log data is given to the PP SDBN, the probability distributions are updated, providing an estimate of pore pressure along with a probabilistic measure of uncertainty that reflects the data acquired and our understanding of the system. This is the advantage of a Bayesian approach. Our model provides a coherent statistical framework for modelling the pore pressure system. The specific geophysical relationships used can be changed to better suit a particular setting, or reflect geoscientists’ knowledge. We demonstrate the PP SDBN on an offshore well from West Africa. We also perform a sensitivity analysis, demonstrating how this can be used to better understand the working of the model and which parameters are the most influential. The dynamic nature of the model makes it suitable for real time estimation during logging while drilling. The PP SDBN models shale pore pressure in shale rich formations with mechanical compaction as the overriding source of overpressure. The PP SDBN improves on existing methods since it produces a probabilistic estimate that reflects the many sources of uncertainty present

Equine Surfaces White Paper

This white paper has been drafted as a collection of published scientific papers and data. It is considered a work in progress and will be updated as new scientific studies and surface data become availabl

A scoping review of determinants of performance in dressage

As a first step in achieving an evidence-based classification system for the sport of Para Dressage, there is a clear need to define elite dressage performance. Previous studies have attempted to quantify performance with able-bodied riders using scientific methods; however, definitive measures have yet to be established for the horse and/or the rider. This may be, in part, due to the variety of movements and gaits that are found within a dressage test and also due to the complexity of the horse-rider partnership. The aim of this review is therefore to identify objective measurements of horse performance in dressage and the functional abilities of the rider that may influence them to achieve higher scores. Five databases (SportDiscuss, CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, VetMed) were systematically searched from 1980 to May 2018. Studies were included if they fulfilled the following criteria: (1) English language; (2) employ objective, quantitative outcome measures for describing equine and human performance in dressage; (3) describe objective measures of superior horse performance using between-subject comparisons and/or relating outcome measures to competitive scoring methods; (4) describe demands of dressage using objective physiological and/or biomechanical measures from human athletes and/or how these demands are translated into superior performance. In total, 773 articles were identified. Title and abstract screening resulted in 155 articles that met the eligibility criteria, 97 were excluded during the full screening of articles, leaving 58 included articles (14 horse, 44 rider) involving 311 equine and 584 able-bodied human participants. Mean ± sd (%) quality scores were 63.5 ± 15.3 and 72.7 ± 14.7 for the equine and human articles respectively. Significant objective measures of horse performance (n = 12 articles) were grouped into themes and separated by gait/movement. A range of temporal variables that indicated superior performance were found in all gaits/movements. For the rider, n = 5 articles reported variables that identified significant differences in skill level, which included the postural position and ROM of the rider’s pelvis, trunk, knee and head. The timing of rider pelvic and trunk motion in relation to the movement of the horse emerged as an important indicator of rider influence. As temporal variables in the horse are consistently linked to superior performance it could be surmised that better overall dressage performance requires minimal disruption from the rider whilst the horse maintains a specific gait/movement. Achieving the gait/movement in the first place depends upon the intrinsic characteristics of the horse, the level of training achieved and the ability of the rider to apply the correct aid. The information from this model will be used to develop an empirical study to test the relative strength of association between impairment and performance in able-bodied and Para Dressage riders

Fishery collapse, recovery, and the cryptic decline of wild salmon on a major California river

Fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Sacramento–San Joaquin River system form the backbone of California’s salmon fishery and are heavily subsidized through hatchery production. Identifying temporal trends in the relative contribution of hatchery- versus wild-spawned salmon is vital for assessing the status and resiliency of wild salmon populations. Here, we reconstructed the proportion of hatchery fish on natural spawning grounds in the Feather River, a major tributary to the Sacramento River, using strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) ratios of otoliths collected during carcass surveys from 2002 to 2010. Our results show that prior to the 2007–2008 salmon stock collapse, 55%–67% of in-river spawners were of hatchery origin; however, hatchery contributions increased drastically (89%) in 2010 following the collapse. Data from a recent hatchery marking program corroborate our results, showing that hatchery fish continued to dominate (∼90%) in 2011–2012. Though the rebound in abundance of salmon in the Feather River suggests recovery of the stock postcollapse, our otolith chemistry data document a persistent decline of wild spawners, likely leading to the erosion of locally adapted Feather River salmon populations

Are Adolescent Climbers Aware of the Most Common Youth Climbing Injury and Safe Training Practices?

Finger growth plate injuries are the most common youth climbing injuries. The purpose of our study was to understand youth awareness of the most common youth climbing injury and safe training practices. We surveyed climbers, ages eight to 18 years old, at the 2017 USA Climbing Sport and Speed Youth National Championships. A total of 267 climbers completed the survey (mean age = 14 &plusmn; 2.7 years; 52% male). The A2 pulley injury was reported as the most common youth climbing injury by the largest portion of participants, 36%. The second most commonly identified injury was at the growth plate of the finger, 15% of participants, which was reported as significantly less than the A2 pulley injury, p &lt; 0.001. Six percent of climbers reported the correct safe age to start double dyno campus board training. Roughly 18% of athletes identified growth plate injuries exclusively as a stress fracture, whereas 29.2% of those climbers self-reported as informed about finger growth plate injuries, but only 7.4% of climbers who self-reported as uninformed answered this question correctly. Misperceptions about skeletally-immature climbing injuries are prevalent amongst youth climbers. Education on the prevalence of finger growth plate injuries and the scarcity of A2 pulley injuries in youth climbers can increase diagnostic accuracy, improve care, and reduce long-term complications.</div

Advances in restoration ecology: rising to the challenges of the coming decades

Simultaneous environmental changes challenge biodiversity persistence and human wellbeing. The science and practice of restoration ecology, in collaboration with other disciplines, can contribute to overcoming these challenges. This endeavor requires a solid conceptual foundation based in empirical research which confronts, tests and influences theoretical developments. We review conceptual developments in restoration ecology over the last 30 years. We frame our review in the context of changing restoration goals which reflect increased societal awareness of the scale of environmental degradation and the recognition that inter-disciplinary approaches are needed to tackle environmental problems. Restoration ecology now encompasses facilitative interactions and network dynamics, trophic cascades, and above- and below ground linkages. It operates in a non-equilibrium, alternative states framework, at the landscape scale, and in response to changing environmental, economic and social conditions. Progress has been marked by conceptual advances in the fields of trait-environment relationships, community assembly, and understanding the links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Conceptual and practical advances have been enhanced by applying evolving technologies, including treatments to increase seed germination and overcome recruitment bottlenecks, high throughput DNA sequencing to elucidate soil community structure and function, and advances in satellite technology and GPS tracking to monitor habitat use. The synthesis of these technologies with systematic reviews of context dependencies in restoration success, model based analyses and consideration of complex socio-ecological systems will allow generalizations to inform evidence based interventions. Ongoing challenges include setting realistic, socially acceptable goals for restoration under changing environmental conditions, and prioritizing actions in an increasingly space-competitive world. Ethical questions also surround the use of genetically modified material, translocations, taxon substitutions, and de-extinction, in restoration ecology. Addressing these issues, as the Ecological Society of America looks to its next century, will require current and future generations of researchers and practitioners, including economists, engineers, philosophers, landscape architects, social scientists and restoration ecologists, to work together with communities and governments to rise to the environmental challenges of the coming decades

The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram) protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. As mortality rates are high, it is important that patients seen by general practitioners with symptoms suggestive of heart failure are identified quickly and treated appropriately. Identifying patients with heart failure or deciding which patients need further tests is a challenge. All patients with suspected heart failure should be diagnosed using objective tests such as echocardiography, but it is expensive, often delayed, and limited by the significant skill shortage of trained echocardiographers. Alternative approaches for diagnosing heart failure are currently limited. Clinical decision tools that combine clinical signs, symptoms or patient characteristics are designed to be used to support clinical decision-making and validated according to strict methodological procedures. The REFER Study aims to determine the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our previously derived novel, simple clinical decision rule, a natriuretic peptide assay, or their combination, in the triage for referral for echocardiography of symptomatic adult patients who present in general practice with symptoms suggestive of heart failure. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a prospective, Phase II observational, diagnostic validation study of a clinical decision rule, natriuretic peptides or their combination, for diagnosing heart failure in primary care. Consecutive adult primary care patients 55 years of age or over presenting to their general practitioner with a chief complaint of recent new onset shortness of breath, lethargy or peripheral ankle oedema of over 48 hours duration, with no obvious recurrent, acute or self-limiting cause will be enrolled. Our reference standard is based upon a three step expert specialist consensus using echocardiography and clinical variables and tests. DISCUSSION: Our clinical decision rule offers a potential solution to the diagnostic challenge of providing a timely and accurate diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Study results will provide an evidence-base from which to develop heart failure care pathway recommendations and may be useful in standardising care. If demonstrated to be effective, the clinical decision rule will be of interest to researchers, policy makers and general practitioners worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17635379.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are