12 research outputs found

    Dominância fiscal : uma investigação empírica sobre o caso brasileiro no período de 2003 a 2014

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    A estabilização econômica dos anos de 1990 e a adoção do tripé econômico, a partir de 1999, marcam o fim de um capítulo delicado da história brasileira; a partir de então, era necessária a existência de certa sintonia de políticas monetária e fiscal para a manutenção do controle dos diversos indicadores econômicos. Contudo, com essa reciprocidade na política econômica, são incitadas discussões sobre a orientação do governo na hora de definir suas prioridades nesse campo: as variáveis fiscais são priorizadas e, por conseguinte, determinadas, forçando as monetárias a se ajustarem – ou o contrário? A resposta para esse questionamento leva à discussão sobre a dominância fiscal. Assim, esse trabalho visa verificar empiricamente, usando das modelagens econométricas VAR e estudo de eventos, se há dominância fiscal ou monetária na economia brasileira e se a eficácia da política monetária mudou na transição do governo Lula para o governo Dilma. O resultado foi inconclusivo para o governo Lula e indicou dominância fiscal no governo Dilma. Ainda verificou-se não haver modificação na eficácia da política monetária.Economic stabilization, in the 1990s, and utilization of an economic tripod, after 1999, represents the end of a delicate chapter in Brazilian history. Ever since, it was necessary the existence of a certain agreement between monetary and fiscal politic, in order to maintain under control a variety of economic indicators. However, this reciprocity (in economic politic) starts discussions about the real government orientations when it comes to define its priority on this subject: are the fiscal variables priorized, and then, determined, forcing monetary variables to adjust themselves, or the opposite? The answer to these questions emerge from the fiscal dominance discussion. This paper intends to empiric verify, using econometric modeling VAR and event study, if there is fiscal dominance or monetary in Brazilian economy and whether the effectiveness of monetary politic has changed in the transition from Lula's government to the Dilma government. The result was inconclusive for the Lula government and indicated fiscal dominance in the Dilma government. There was still no change in the efficiency of the monetary politic.CAPE

    A statistical analysis using simulation on a lean manufacturing model

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    The research seeks to study a framework that integrates the characteristic of a process, the system and simulation which provides the realistic manufacturing system that is used for operational and decision making in order to minimize the cost (or maximize the profit) of the operating system in an organization. The research is developed into a specific case study focusing on a selected sample manufacturing plant that is derived from a supply chain model. The model is conducted using simulation software via PRO-MODEL to represent a model of a manufacturing system through two production method via one piece flow and mass production. The raw data were analyzed by the statistical software and theory to analyze the good production method of a manufacturing system. From the simulation software and statistical analysis, the good production method of a manufacturing system can be determined using quantitative method. (Authors' abstract

    An Intelligent Process Model for Manufacturing System Optimization

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    The paper aims to develop an intelligent modeling system using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet interface through mathematical language, mathematical reasoning and algorithms flow chart technique for manufacturing system optimization without human involvement. The paper begins to search for a mathematical theorem which is arithmetic series to represent a dynamic manufacturing system in a production floor using production time variable through numerical analysis and is validated using software simulation. The mathematical theorem is modeled with Industrial Engineering (IE) variables into spreadsheet to perform intelligent decision making. The model sets inventory target variable to be achieved with automated computation through the data input from users. Manual analysis from human can be transposed to mathematical language in order automate the system intelligently. The building of intelligent modeling system into spreadsheet using mathematical language sets a new platform for researchers to promote the next generation of modeling technique in the manufacturing field. (Abstract by authors

    An integrated model for process parameter adjustment to recover throughput shortage in semiconductor assembly: A case study

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    Purpose: Existing productivity improvements activities such as inventory buffer, overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) and total productive maintenance (TPM) do not analytically associate the throughput shortage with process parameters. The paper aims to develop and test an integrated model to recover the throughput shortage through process parameters adjustment in a semiconductor assembly. Design/methodology/approach: The mathematical model of planned throughput is developed as a function of input parameters in an integrated multiple process line. When the planned throughput does not meet the real-time throughput, the throughput shortage occurs. The planned throughput for the next day is summed with the throughput shortage from previous day and mathematical programming is used to find the optimum process parameter values. Findings: The throughput shortage is restored using mathematical programming for the subsequent day of planning. If there still exist throughput shortage, the additional throughput shortage will be carried forward for the subsequent day of planning where mathematical programming is used again to find the adjusted process parameters. The proposed optimization model in essentially a parametric model using input parameters of real-time data based on a normal distribution that is translated into a range of minimum and maximum using 95% confidence interval. Research limitations/implications: The adjusted input parameters in this model is based on the cycle time of three processes which are Die Attach, Wire Bond and Pre-Cap Inspection. Downtime and setup time are not subjected to adjustments. Practical implications: The mathematical programming computes optimum process parameters values to restore the throughput shortage where it correlates the process parameters and throughput shortage quantitatively rather than conventional method of throughput shortage recovery. Originality/value: The research addresses the process parameter adjustment to recover the throughput shortage in integrated multiple processes.Peer Reviewe

    An Intelligent Model Using Excel Spread Sheet in a Manufacturing System

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    The research integrates the combination of mathematical modeling and intelligent modeling concept to represent a manufacturing system in the Excel spread sheet interface. The mathematical modeling uses two types of approaches, which use IE variables and the development of mathematical theorem using deduction methodology from the dynamic manufacturing system. Mathematical language and mathematical reasoning technique through programming in spread sheet are used to build an intelligent modeling system which optimizes targeted inventory level in order to response without human involvement

    Maritime Interdiction Operations in Logistically Barren Environments

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    Includes supplementary materialThis report contains analysis that shows that existing technology exists to improve Maritime Interdiction Operations (MIO) by approximately 30%. Furthermore, analysis contained herein will aid MIO planning for future operations. Since MIOs are an inherently dangerous, but necessary activity with far reaching implications to theater political and economic dynamics, this improvement is of great interest. MIO is a Naval solution to the problems of smuggling weapons, explosives, people and narcotics. MIO, when employed correctly has the potential to save lives and limit economic/political damage.N
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