Evaluation of car traffic reduction potential in urban area, Paris and Lyon case-studies

The private car currently dominates travel in large metropolitan areas and its use is on the increase, in spite of the fact that public opinion is generally in favour of the development of public transport and political statements which reflect this opinion. Furthermore, the available projections and an analysis of the potential effect of conventional policies indicate that although such policies are able to exert some control, it is limited.Then, the question, that this research directed by INRETS will attempt to answer, is: could a major metropolitan area operate with a radically different transport system that is based principally on the use of modes other than the automobile? By "radically different", we mean a system in which use of the conventional automobile would be reduced in a non-marginal manner, by, say, between a third and a half of all private car vehicle-kilometres.This research does not attempt to justify a move towards a radically different system a lot as already been said on it. Instead, the project will perform different transport simulations and assess on based-rules the effect on the use of modes.Transport scenarios have been designed to incorporate a progressive improvement in public transport supply in the following respects: increase in speeds on the roads, increase in service frequencies during off-peak periods, creation of exclusive public transport lanes, reserving radial roads for public transport, extension of metro and regional express rail and reorganisation of bus routes in response to this. We have also devised and simulated a set of appropriate accompanying strategies that are intended to improve the effectiveness of public transport supply, for example policies to encourage the use of the bicycle or park and ride schemes. The methodology, developed by INRETS has been applied on Paris and Lyon region based on the last household travel survey conducted in each area. For each transport scenario, Paris and Lyon models are used to calculate public transport time for all trips whatever is the actual mode of transport. We then applied the procedure of mode transfer to assess the effect of each of these scenario on mode choice. The procedure is based on automatic rules. Trips, or more precisely round trips, are assigned to one or other of the alternative modes on the basis of elimination rules (no walking for distances over 2 kilometres, no cycling over 8 kilometres, no modal transfer if the purpose of the round trip is for escorting purposes...) and on the basis of constraints (individual travel-time budgets, the length of each trip and round trips, the existence of transport supply...). This system of rules and constraints constitutes the core of the modal transfer procedure.The paper will present both the methodology and results obtain from Paris and Lyon case studies.Urban transport ; Modal split ; modal split simulation method ; Transportation policy ; Car use reduction ; Paris (France) – Lyon (France)

Volatility of car ownership, commutingmode and time in the UK

This paper has two objectives: to examine the volatility of travel behaviour over timeand consider the factors explaining this volatility; and to estimate the factors determiningcar ownership and commuting by car. The analysis is based on observations of individualsand households over a period of up to eleven years obtained from the British HouseholdPanel Survey (BHPS). Changes in car ownership, commuting mode and commuting timeover a period of years for the same individuals/households are examined to determine theextent to which these change from year to year. This volatility of individual behaviour is ameasure of the ease of change or adaptation. If behaviour changes easily, policy measuresare likely to have a stronger and more rapid effect than if there is more resistance tochange. The changes are ?explained? in terms of factors such as moving house, changingjob and employment status. The factors determining car ownership and commuting by carare analysed using a dynamic panel-data models

A System of Tradable CO2 Permits Applied to Fuel Consumption by Motorists

Decentralized transferable permit systems in the transport sector can be of interest with regard to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in spite of anticipated transaction costs. This paper describes a potential application of a domestic market for car fuel consumption permits. The marginal costs of consumption reduction vary sufficiently according to motorists' residential locations to consider permit exchanges. Economic evaluation of this system shows that there are transfers of surplus between the various groups of motorists according to their residential locations. The central government may lose significant revenues when compared with a conventional fuel tax. Lastly, the issue of transaction costs, the benefits and disadvantages in terms of social acceptability and equity are discussed. (JEL classification: D120; D450; R410; R480).Tradable permits ; Transport ; Greenhouse gas ; economic evaluation ; car fuel consumption ; carbon card ; motorists

Etude de faisabilité d'un système de transport radicalement différent sur les zones denses parisienne et lyonnaise

L'usage privé de l'automobile domine largement les déplacements dans les grandes aires métropolitaines. Son usage y est croissant, et ce malgré une opinion publique généralement favorable au développement des transports publics et des prises de position politiques qui reflètent cette opinion. En outre, les projections disponibles et l'examen des potentiels de régulation liés aux politiques traditionnellement envisagées (maîtrise du stationnement, développement des transports publics, instruments économiques (péage urbain) ou fiscaux (TIPP)) montrent que l'impact de ces politiques reste limité.La question à laquelle nous souhaitons répondre dans le cadre de cette communication est la suivante : peut-on envisager un fonctionnement satisfaisant d'une grande aire métropolitaine fondé sur un système de transport radicalement différent, reposant principalement sur l'usage d'autres modes que la voiture particulière ? Par « radicalement différent », nous entendons un système dans lequel l'usage de la voiture particulière pourrait être réduit de manière non marginale, d'au moins la moitié des véhicules * kilomètres automobiles, pour fixer les idées.Dans ce travail, nous ne cherchons pas à justifier l'orientation vers un système radicalement différent. Notre objet consiste à mettre en œuvre différents scénarios de transport, afin d'évaluer sur la base de règles de transfert les effets sur l'usage d'autres modes que la voiture dans les zones denses des agglomérations parisienne et lyonnaise.Les scénarios de transport ont été mis en œuvre en simulant une amélioration progressive de l'offre en transports publics : croissance des vitesses commerciales sur les lignes de surface, croissance du service en généralisant à la journée l'offre de la période de pointe du soir, mise en site propre des lignes de bus, création de nouvelles lignes de transports publics, extension des lignes de métro et des lignes de trains express régionaux et restructuration du réseau de bus. Nous avons également identifié et simulé une série de mesures d'accompagnement qui sont susceptibles d'améliorer l'efficacité de l'offre en transports publics, telles que la mise en œuvre de rabattements en vélo ou en voiture vers les lignes de transports publics ou de stratégies d'information pour les usagers.La méthode, développée par l'INRETS depuis 1996, a été appliquée aux agglomérations parisienne et lyonnaise sur la base des dernières enquêtes ménages déplacements de chacune des agglomérations. Pour chaque scénario de transport, des modèles sont utilisés afin de calculer les temps en transports publics de l'ensemble des déplacements, quel que soit le mode de déplacement utilisé dans les enquêtes ménages déplacements. Nous appliquons ensuite une procédure de transfert modal pour évaluer les effets de chacun des scénarios sur l'usage des modes doux. Les déplacements, ou plus précisément les boucles de déplacements, sont assignés à un des modes alternatifs sur la base de règles éliminatoires (pas de transfert vers la marche pour des distances supérieures à 2 kilomètres, pas de transfert vers le vélo pour des distances supérieures à 8 kilomètres, pas de transfert si le motif de déplacement des boucles est « accompagnement »...) et sur la base de contraintes (respect des budgets-temps de déplacement des individus, distance de chaque déplacement et boucle, existence d'une offre en transports publics...). Ce système de règles et de contraintes constituent le cœur de la procédure de transfert modal, qui examine les possibilités de transfert dans le contexte de scénarios d'offre en transport.Evaluation ; système de transport ; transfert modal ; mode de déplacement ; politique de déplacements urbains ; simulation ; transport collectif ; voiture particulière ; aire métropolitaine ; Paris (France) ; Lyon (France)

Prospective pour l'énergie fossile : les limites physiques sur l'offre sont-elles bien anticipées ?

La volonté de limiter l'usage de produits pétroliers et plus généralement de sources d'énergie contenant du carbone (pétrole, gaz et charbon) existe notamment pour des raisons économiques et environnementales (émissions de gaz à effets de serre). Si les pays anciennement industrialisés, notamment européens, stabilisent ou réduisent leur production de produits pétroliers, il n'en reste pas moins que la demande garde une certaine vigueur au niveau mondial malgré la crise économique à cause des pays émergents. Ces pays assurent désormais une partie de la production industrielle des pays anciennement industrialisé (Europe, USA, Japon) et développent leurs activités économiques sur un mode intensif en énergie, et en particulier en produits pétroliers pour leurs transports. L'offre de pétrole peut-elle suivre le rythme de la demande ? Plus généralement, comment s'articulent les contraintes sur les ressources pétrolières ? Nous verrons que le phénomène de pic de production va créer une contrainte significative sur la production de pétrole à partir de 2020 et sur la production de gaz naturel à partir de 2025-2030. La production de charbon, quant à elle, pourra augmenter au moins jusqu'à la moitié du siècle.ENERGIE ; PRODUCTION ; PROSPECTIVE

Genetic evidence for a normal-weight "metabolically obese" phenotype linking insulin resistance, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and type 2 diabetes

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tThe mechanisms that predispose to hypertension, coronary artery disease (CAD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals of normal weight are poorly understood. In contrast, in monogenic primary lipodystrophy-a reduction in subcutaneous adipose tissue-it is clear that it is adipose dysfunction that causes severe insulin resistance (IR), hypertension, CAD, and T2D. We aimed to test the hypothesis that common alleles associated with IR also influence the wider clinical and biochemical profile of monogenic IR. We selected 19 common genetic variants associated with fasting insulin-based measures of IR. We used hierarchical clustering and results from genome-wide association studies of eight nondisease outcomes of monogenic IR to group these variants. We analyzed genetic risk scores against disease outcomes, including 12,171 T2D cases, 40,365 CAD cases, and 69,828 individuals with blood pressure measurements. Hierarchical clustering identified 11 variants associated with a metabolic profile consistent with a common, subtle form of lipodystrophy. A genetic risk score consisting of these 11 IR risk alleles was associated with higher triglycerides (β = 0.018; P = 4 × 10(-29)), lower HDL cholesterol (β = -0.020; P = 7 × 10(-37)), greater hepatic steatosis (β = 0.021; P = 3 × 10(-4)), higher alanine transaminase (β = 0.002; P = 3 × 10(-5)), lower sex-hormone-binding globulin (β = -0.010; P = 9 × 10(-13)), and lower adiponectin (β = -0.015; P = 2 × 10(-26)). The same risk alleles were associated with lower BMI (per-allele β = -0.008; P = 7 × 10(-8)) and increased visceral-to-subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio (β = -0.015; P = 6 × 10(-7)). Individuals carrying ≥17 fasting insulin-raising alleles (5.5% population) were slimmer (0.30 kg/m(2)) but at increased risk of T2D (odds ratio [OR] 1.46; per-allele P = 5 × 10(-13)), CAD (OR 1.12; per-allele P = 1 × 10(-5)), and increased blood pressure (systolic and diastolic blood pressure of 1.21 mmHg [per-allele P = 2 × 10(-5)] and 0.67 mmHg [per-allele P = 2 × 10(-4)], respectively) compared with individuals carrying ≤9 risk alleles (5.5% population). Our results provide genetic evidence for a link between the three diseases of the "metabolic syndrome" and point to reduced subcutaneous adiposity as a central mechanism

A system of tradable permits applied to fuel consumption by motorists

Decentralized transferable permit systems in the transport sector can be of interest with regard to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in spite of anticipated transaction costs. This paper describes a concrete application of a domestic market for motor vehicle fuel consumption permits. The marginal costs of consumption reduction vary sufficiently according to motorists' residential locations to consider permit exchanges. Economic evaluation of this system reveals that there are transfers of surplus between the various groups of motorists according to their residential locations. The central government may lose significant revenues when compared with a conventional fuel tax. Lastly, the issue of transaction costs, the benefits and disadvantages in terms of social acceptability and equity are discussed.Transferable permits ; Transport ; Greenhouse gas ; Surplus